Could a tax on sunshine be on the horizon?
The "sun tax" hinders the progress of renewable energy, particularly solar power. This policy, enacted in Spain in 2015, imposed tolls and charges on solar power producers, leading to the bankruptcy of many initiatives. It was a flawed fiscal measure enacted without a thorough financial assessment. However, on October 5, 2018, the Spanish government introduced a new Royal Decree to regulate electrical self-consumption, aligning Spain with its European counterparts and advancing the EU's energy objectives for 2030. Battery storage systems are crucial for integrating significant solar power into energy systems, with various applications in the power sector.
Image by Germán & Co 
Artwork by Germán & Co.
The term "sun tax" might sound like a joke, but unfortunately, it is not. It represents a significant setback for the advancement of renewable energy sources.
This flashback was prompted by our study of new technologies, during which we observed that solar energy has experienced unprecedented growth, making it the fastest-growing energy source over the past five years. This trend is underscored by headlines such as "Germany's solar power output jumps to record highs." (1)
Imagine the madness…
Consider the prospect of being subjected to taxation or tolls for independently producing solar energy without any governmental regulation. This scenario represents a significant deviation from the norm in the context of renewable energy generation, as it introduces a variable associated with solar energy known as natural consumption.
The so-called sun tax was an energy policy implemented in Spain in 2015 through Royal Decree 900/2015. Despite its name, it was not a tax in the traditional sense; rather, it consisted of tolls and charges imposed on solar power producers. This policy, which appeared disconnected from the realities of the electricity industry, dealt a severe blow to the advancement of solar energy and resulted in the bankruptcy of hundreds of initiatives that were utilising this technology.
The irrational fiscal measure was enacted during Mariano Rajoy's conservative administration in response to a substantial negative balance in the stabilisation fund for tariffs. This decision was made without adequately assessing the financial implications and potential consequences.
Fortunately, on October 5, 2018, three years after its introduction, the Spanish government enacted a Royal Decree that delineated new regulations governing electrical self-consumption. This decree promotes collective self-consumption and introduced a streamlined mechanism for compensating self-generated and unused energy. Consequently, Spain aligns more closely with its European counterparts and is making progress towards achieving the European Union's energy objectives for 2030.
The analysis of the historical context surrounding the fiscal policy known as the sun tax indicates that, regardless of the political affiliation of those in power, economic constraints often result in the adoption of misguided fiscal strategies. Historical patterns which suggest a tendency for similar circumstances to recur over time further corroborate this observation.
The importance of battery storage systems in the boom of solar power…
Finally, it is essential to highlight the promising role of battery storage systems. These systems are emerging as one of the key solutions for effectively integrating high shares of solar power into energy systems. A recent analysis from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) illustrates how storage technologies can be used for a variety of applications in the power sector, from behind-the-meter applications to utility-scale use cases.
(1) https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/germany-solar-power-output-jumps-record-highs-maguire-2024-05-14/Today…
The exponential growth of solar power will change the world.
An energy-rich future is within reach…
The Economist, Jun 20th 2024How high could the oil price go?
Geopolitical risk is rising. But so is the supply of oil…
The Economist, oct 10th 2024The History of Solar Energy: Past, Present, and Future…
Historical Tools, March 30, 2024
In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central
Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...
In a world that's constantly growing and grappling with inflation, the art of blogging faces its fair share of hurdles. To keep our content top-notch during these challenging times, we've poured resources into top-tier software, licenses, and stunning copyrighted images, among other essentials. But fear not, we're not navigating this journey alone! Just last week on "X," actions like "liking" or "retweeting" have become your secret weapons—free and private, thanks to "Musk" your support through these simple yet impactful gestures is not just a token of appreciation but a significant contribution that shapes our journey!
If you're feeling motivated to make a difference, consider extending your generosity through PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com, or by using our IBAN account: SE18 3000 0000 0058 0511 2611. Alternatively, you can effortlessly support our blog with a secure contribution via Stripe using the donation link. Every little bit helps!
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https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1846182574109896987
Thank you for your kind contributions…
Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…
Image provided by AES.
“Maximo is the first proven solar installation robot on the market,” said Andrés Gluski, AES President and CEO. “We are facing unprecedented increases in demand, driven in large part by the rise of AI and data centers, and innovations like these will be fundamental for accelerating our ability to bring projects online faster and with greater efficiency.”
Artistic creations and intellectual property by Germán Toro Ghio & Co.
The exponential growth of solar power will change the world
An energy-rich future is within reach…
The Economist, Jun 20th 2024 It is 70 years since AT&T’s Bell Labs unveiled a new technology for turning sunlight into power. The phone company hoped it could replace the batteries that run equipment in out-of-the-way places. It also realised that powering devices with light alone showed how science could make the future seem wonderful; hence a press event at which sunshine kept a toy Ferris wheel spinning round and round.
Today solar power is long past the toy phase. Panels now occupy an area around half that of Wales, and this year they will provide the world with about 6% of its electricity—which is almost three times as much electrical energy as America consumed back in 1954. Yet this historic growth is only the second-most-remarkable thing about the rise of solar power. The most remarkable is that it is nowhere near over.
To call solar power’s rise exponential is not hyperbole, but a statement of fact. Installed solar capacity doubles roughly every three years, and so grows ten-fold each decade. Such sustained growth is seldom seen in anything that matters. That makes it hard for people to get their heads round what is going on. When it was a tenth of its current size ten years ago, solar power was still seen as marginal even by experts who knew how fast it had grown. The next ten-fold increase will be equivalent to multiplying the world’s entire fleet of nuclear reactors by eight in less than the time it typically takes to build just a single one of them.
Solar energy is rapidly expanding and cost-effective, poised for substantial growth…
Solar cells will in all likelihood be the single biggest source of electrical power on the planet by the mid 2030s. By the 2040s they may be the largest source not just of electricity but of all energy. On current trends, the all-in cost of the electricity they produce promises to be less than half as expensive as the cheapest available today. This will not stop climate change, but could slow it a lot faster. Much of the world—including Africa, where 600m people still cannot light their homes—will begin to feel energy-rich. That feeling will be a new and transformational one for humankind.
To grasp that this is not some environmentalist fever dream, consider solar economics. As the cumulative production of a manufactured good increases, costs go down. As costs go down, demand goes up. As demand goes up, production increases—and costs go down further. This cannot go on for ever; production, demand or both always become constrained. In earlier energy transitions—from wood to coal, coal to oil or oil to gas—the efficiency of extraction grew, but it was eventually offset by the cost of finding ever more fuel.
As our essay this week explains, solar power faces no such constraint. The resources needed to produce solar cells and plant them on solar farms are silicon-rich sand, sunny places and human ingenuity, all three of which are abundant. Making cells also takes energy, but solar power is fast making that abundant, too. As for demand, it is both huge and elastic—if you make electricity cheaper, people will find uses for it. The result is that, in contrast to earlier energy sources, solar power has routinely become cheaper and will continue to do so.
Other constraints do exist. Given people’s proclivity for living outside daylight hours, solar power needs to be complemented with storage and supplemented by other technologies. Heavy industry and aviation and freight have been hard to electrify. Fortunately, these problems may be solved as batteries and fuels created by electrolysis gradually become cheaper.
A world with more energy is generated without oil and gas…
Another worry is that the vast majority of the world’s solar panels, and almost all the purified silicon from which they are made, come from China. Its solar industry is highly competitive, heavily subsidised and is outstripping current demand—quite an achievement given all the solar capacity China is installing within its own borders. This means that Chinese capacity is big enough to keep the expansion going for years to come, even if some of the companies involved go to the wall and some investment dries up.
In the long run, a world in which more energy is generated without the oil and gas that come from unstable or unfriendly parts of the world will be more dependable. Still, although the Chinese Communist Party cannot rig the price of sunlight as OPEC tries to rig that of oil, the fact that a vital industry resides in a single hostile country is worrying.
It is a concern that America feels keenly, which is why it has put tariffs on Chinese solar equipment. However, because almost all the demand for solar panels still lies in the future, the rest of the world will have plenty of scope to get into the market. America’s adoption of solar energy could be frustrated by a pro-fossil-fuel Trump presidency, but only temporarily and painfully. It could equally be enhanced if America released pent up demand, by making it easier to install panels on homes and to join the grid—the country has a terawatt of new solar capacity waiting to be connected. Carbon prices would help, just as they did in the switch from coal to gas in the European Union.
The aim should be for the virtuous circle of solar-power production to turn as fast as possible. That is because it offers the prize of cheaper energy. The benefits start with a boost to productivity. Anything that people use energy for today will cost less—and that includes pretty much everything. Then come the things cheap energy will make possible. People who could never afford to will start lighting their houses or driving a car. Cheap energy can purify water, and even desalinate it. It can drive the hungry machinery of artificial intelligence. It can make billions of homes and offices more bearable in summers that will, for decades to come, be getting hotter.
But it is the things that nobody has yet thought of that will be most consequential. In its radical abundance, cheaper energy will free the imagination, setting tiny Ferris wheels of the mind spinning with excitement and new possibilities.
This week marks the summer solstice in the northern hemisphere. The Sun rising to its highest point in the sky will in decades to come shine down on a world where nobody need go without the blessings of electricity and where the access to energy invigorates all those it touches.
How high could the oil price go?
Geopolitical risk is rising. But so is the supply of oil…
The economist, Oct 10th 2024 All around the world consumers, motorists and politicians are nervously eyeing the oil price. The conflict between Israel and Hamas that began a year ago is spreading. If all-out war erupts between Israel and Iran, the threat to the Middle East, a region that produces a third of the world’s crude, is as obvious as it is scary. Few commodities affect the global economy as much as oil does. And, as America’s presidential candidates are keenly aware, few are as likely to sway an election. The past two years of inflation have shown just how much voters hate sticker shock.
The price of oil rose by 10% in a week, as Israel attacked Hizbullah, a Lebanese militia backed by Iran, and Iran retaliated with around 200 missiles fired directly at Israel. On October 7th it reached $81 a barrel, before falling. Two and a half years ago Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent oil prices surging beyond $120, as the West imposed sanctions on Russia and fears intensified of disruptions to the supply from the world’s second-biggest exporter. What could happen this time? If the fighting gets worse, a serious oil shock is possible. But a glut of supply means the oil market is less vulnerable to such a shock than it was in 2022.
As we published this, Israel had yet to retaliate against Iran. On October 3rd Joe Biden, America’s president, jolted the market when he hinted that Iran’s oil infrastructure might be in Israel’s cross-hairs. However, that is only one of many possible targets. And even if Iran’s oil output were disrupted, it is not as big a producer as Russia. It exports nearly 2m barrels per day (bpd), about 2% of the global supply. By comparison, Russia exports nearly 5m bpd.
The global picture, too, is markedly different from 2022. When Russia invaded Ukraine oil was in short supply and demand was roaring back, as the world’s economies came out of covid lockdowns. The market was ripe for an upset. Today the world is swimming in oil. The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, spearheaded by Saudi Arabia, had sought to keep prices high by pumping less. But that plan has failed, fuelling indiscipline and cheating by other members. Now it is being abandoned, with the cartel promising to increase output in December.
Even Saudi Arabia, which is desperate for higher prices to finance its gaudy spending plans at home, is throwing in the towel. It has reportedly dropped its price “target” of $100 a barrel, so that it can at least shore up its market share. OPEC and its allies have spare capacity of more than 5m bpd; Saudi Arabia alone could ramp up production by 3m.
OPEC’s squabbles mask a more fundamental shift. Nearly 60% of the world’s oil now comes from countries other than the cartel and its allies, up from 44% in 2019. America’s shalemen have become the biggest producers in the world by far. Brazil, Canada and Guyana have all increased their output in recent years. According to the International Energy Agency, production by non-OPEC countries will grow by 1.5m bpd next year.
At the same time, demand for oil has been tepid. After their post-pandemic bounce-back, the economies of America and Europe are slowing down as past interest-rate increases start to bite. China’s economy is struggling under the weight of its property slump. On October 8th America’s Energy Information Administration revised down its forecast for global oil demand in 2025 as a result of weakening manufacturing activity around the world. Before the latest escalation in the Middle East, oil traders had expected a glut in 2025 as a consequence of weakening demand growth and expanding supply, pushing prices below $70 a barrel.
Today’s ample supply provides a shield against geopolitical shocks, but not an impregnable one. If Israel were to hit Iran’s own oil infrastructure, Iran could attack oil producers that have signed economic accords with Israel, such as Bahrain or the United Arab Emirates. Or it could block the Strait of Hormuz, through which much of the Gulf’s oil travels. That might push the oil price close to its highs of 2022.
Iran’s theocratic rulers would be foolish to take such actions, which could draw America into the conflict and infuriate Iran’s few remaining friends, such as China, the world’s biggest oil importer. But in the Middle East, nightmare scenarios can never quite be ruled out. Because oil production is still concentrated in a handful of countries, the supply remains vulnerable to the reckless decisions of a few autocrats. Thanks to rising global production and weakening demand, however, the market is better cushioned than it has been before.
"Tilt Renewables" has chosen Fluence to develop Australia's Latrobe Valley Battery Energy Storage System. Announced on September 17, 2023, the project will feature a 100 MW / 200 MWh battery system south of Morwell, Victoria, utilizing Fluence's Gridstack™, a two-decade service agreement, Mosaic™ AI-driven bidding software, and Nispera™ asset performance management tool— mes for renewable energy in Australia, "Julian Nebreda the CEO and President of Fluence Energy," stated.
Source: Media.
The History of Solar Energy: Past, Present, and Future…
Historical Tools, March 30, 2024Solar energy, often seen as a modern innovation, has a history of nearly two centuries. The 1839 discovery of the photovoltaic effect laid the groundwork for today's solar panels, but decades of innovation were needed to develop this high-efficiency energy source. This overview highlights solar energy's history and future potential, from early solar-powered satellites to current rooftop arrays and utility-scale solar farms.
The Rise of Solar Energy…
The story of solar energy began in 1839 when French physicist Edmond Becquerel discovered the photovoltaic effect, generating electric currents in materials exposed to light. This finding revealed the potential to convert sunlight into electrical energy.
Other scientists began experimenting with solar cells made from selenium. In 1883, American inventor Charles Fritts built the first solar array on a New York City rooftop, using selenium wafers to generate electrical currents. Despite achieving only 1% efficiency, this prototype showcased solar energy's practical potential.
Early 20th Century: Steady Progress
Solar energy technology advanced slowly in the early 20th century until Albert Einstein's 1905 paper on the photoelectric effect earned him the Nobel Prize in Physics. His work highlighted the particle nature of light and introduced photons, improving the understanding of the photovoltaic effect.
Silicon-based solar cells were first developed in the 1940s but were too costly for widespread use. The Space Age accelerated their adoption, as solar energy became an attractive power source for satellites and spacecraft.
The Space Race Boosts Solar Energy…
In 1958, the U.S. launched Vanguard 1, the first solar-powered satellite. It used six solar panels to stay in orbit for over six years. This innovation led to other solar-powered satellites, like NASA's Nimbus and the Soviet Sputnik 3.
During the 1960s Space Race, solar energy became vital for extended space missions. The lightweight Ranger moon probes used solar arrays with thousands of solar cells, while the Mariner 2 probe, the first successful interplanetary spacecraft, powered its 1962 flyby of Venus with solar energy.
Early applications highlighted solar energy's advantages for space exploration. With no moving parts and the ability to generate power indefinitely, solar arrays were more practical than batteries for long missions. In the 1970s, as NASA explored the solar system deeper, photovoltaics became the standard power system for its spacecraft and remains so today.
The 1970s Oil Crisis Fuels a Solar Revolution…
Solar energy technology progressed slowly through the mid-20th century but was uncompetitive with cheap fossil fuels. The 1970s oil crisis, marked by rising oil prices and market uncertainty, highlighted the need for alternative energy sources.
The oil crisis led to heightened government and private investment in solar energy worldwide. In 1977, the U.S. established the Solar Energy Research Institute (now the National Renewable Energy Laboratory) to promote photovoltaic innovation. Germany and Japan also emerged as early leaders in solar technology and manufacturing.
By 1980, the global solar industry produced over 500 megawatts annually, with costs plummeting from around $100 per watt in 1975 to under $10 by 1985. While still a minor part of overall energy generation, solar was increasingly viable, setting the stage for a revolution in solar energy.
Exponential Growth and Lower Costs: The Current Solar Era…
Solar energy has become one of the fastest-growing energy sources in the last four decades, with statistics reflecting its exponential growth.
In 1983, global solar photovoltaic installations were just 21.3 megawatts. By 2021, they had surged to over 843,000 megawatts, a nearly 40,000-fold increase.
Since 2010, solar energy costs have fallen over 85%, making it competitive with fossil fuels. It is now the cheapest source of new electricity for over two-thirds of the global population.
Solar contributes nearly half of new global electricity generation capacity annually, a share that is increasing. In a sustainable development scenario, it could meet 20% of global electricity needs by 2030.
Advancements in technology and economies of scale drive the rapid growth of solar energy. Solar cell efficiency has doubled since the 1970s, and new materials have lowered costs. Governments globally have also introduced subsidies and tax incentives to encourage solar adoption.
The convergence of trends has transformed the solar energy landscape. At the turn of the millennium, solar energy contributed less than 0.01% of global electricity generation; today, it exceeds 3% and is rapidly increasing. In countries like Germany, Italy, and Australia, solar accounts for over 10% of electricity generation.
Modern Solar Technology and Applications…
Solar energy technology has advanced from inefficient, costly solar cells. Modern solar panels use key innovations for exceptional efficiency and cost-effectiveness.
Monocrystalline silicon is the main material for solar cells, which are made from thin wafers of a single silicon crystal. In high-end models, these cells achieve over 25% efficiency.
Multi-junction solar cells, designed for satellites and spacecraft, layer various semiconductor materials to capture a broader range of light wavelengths, achieving nearly 40% efficiency in NASA's advanced models.
Solar concentrators utilize lenses and mirrors to focus sunlight on photovoltaic material, improving efficiency and reducing costs. Concentration ratios range from 2x to over 1,000x.
Bifacial modules are a new solar panel design featuring photovoltaic material on both sides, allowing the rear to capture light reflected from the ground or other surfaces.
Anti-reflective coatings are thin layers on solar cells that reduce reflection and improve light absorption, boosting efficiency by several percentage points.
Advances in photovoltaic technology have showcased solar energy's versatility in various applications, including:
1) Utility-Scale Power Generation
Large solar farms supplying power to regional grids are the most notable application of solar energy. India's largest Bhadla Solar Park has 2.2 gigawatts and over 10 million solar panels across 5,700 acres. In the U.S., several projects are nearing or exceeding 1 gigawatt, including the Samson Solar Energy Center in northeast Texas.
2) Distributed Rooftop Solar
Distributed solar energy in homes and businesses is as vital as large utility-scale projects. Falling costs have made rooftop solar an attractive investment for millions worldwide. In Australia, over 30% of homes have solar panels, while the U.S. share is about 3%, increasing. Energy storage solutions like the Tesla Powerwall provide backup power and reduce dependence on the electrical grid.
3) Solar Lighting and Off-Grid Use
Solar energy is increasingly used for lighting and power in areas without electrical grids. It effectively serves remote villages and forward operating bases, reducing reliance on dangerous kerosene lamps in developing countries.
Solar Heating & Cooling
While photovoltaic systems dominate the solar industry, solar thermal technology is also significant. Solar water heaters use the sun's energy to provide hot water for various facilities at a lower cost than electric or gas systems. Furthermore, solar air conditioning, which employs solar heat for cooling, is becoming increasingly popular.
The Future: Solar Energy's Potential
Although solar energy has advanced significantly, it still represents a small portion of global energy production, primarily dominated by fossil fuels. With decreasing costs and the pressing need for clean energy due to climate change, experts expect substantial growth in solar energy in the coming decades.
The International Energy Agency forecasts that solar energy may become the largest source of global electricity by 2050, providing nearly 30% of total generation. Other studies suggest that it could meet most energy demand in sunny regions with available land.
Realizing solar energy's potential requires overcoming challenges, particularly its intermittency—no power is generated at night or on cloudy days. Affordable, long-duration energy storage solutions are essential for dispatching solar electricity as needed.
Integrating more solar energy into electrical grids requires upgrades to transmission infrastructure, advanced distribution electronics, and new tariff models. Concerns about land use for large solar farms and the disposal of old solar panels also need to be addressed.
Despite challenges, the future of solar energy looks promising. Advancing technology, decreasing costs, government support, and rising public demand for clean energy drive its global growth. Solar energy's vast, nearly limitless potential suggests we have only begun to tap into its capabilities.
The scientists who harnessed solar power nearly two centuries ago likely never anticipated its rapid advancement. The story of solar energy is just beginning, with the potential to meet humanity's energy needs cleanly and affordably for generations. Solar power will be central to our sustainable future, and the outlook is promising..
“Esperpento” that’s the world today?
“Esperpento” that’s the world today?
The term "esperpento" perfectly captures the stark truths of our modern world. We often overlook the root causes of natural disasters, like the hurricanes wreaking havoc in Florida and the relentless wildfires raging across the globe. These tragedies serve as a stark reminder of our failure to care for the planet. Meanwhile, the harrowing bombings in the Middle East have left millions in despair, undoing years of hard-won stability. The struggles of migrants, who brave treacherous seas in search of a better life, frequently go unnoticed; many who manage to survive these perilous journeys find themselves trapped in detention centers. What a cruel twist of fate. It’s crucial to remember that most of us today are either immigrants or the descendants of those who sought refuge. The disturbing images that arise from these issues are akin to the warped reflections seen in funhouse mirrors—distorted yet painfully real. What does the future hold for us?
"Esperpento," a fascinating literary style born from the genius of Ramón María del Valle-Inclán, a versatile author from Pontevedra, invites us to confront these unsettling realities. Valle-Inclán, who graced the world with his presence from October 28, 1866, until January 5, 1936, was a pivotal figure in the modernist movement. His distinctive technique twists reality into grotesque forms, offering sharp critiques of society while exploring deep themes like mortality and the unsettling transformation of humans into mere objects.
Image by Germán & Co 
"Esperpento" by Germán & Co.
Happy Sunday to everyone…
The term (1) —esperpento— aptly encapsulates the harsh realities of contemporary existence. We underestimate the underlying causes of natural disasters, such as the hurricanes devastating Florida and the persistent wildfires globally. These calamities are a poignant reminder of humanity's insufficient stewardship of the environment. Furthermore, the devastating bombings in the Middle East have profoundly affected millions, reversing years of progress and weak stability. The plight of migrants, who undertake perilous sea voyages in pursuit of improved living conditions, is often overlooked; many who survive these treacherous journeys are confined in detention centres. What a fucking fate. We must acknowledge that most individuals today are immigrants or descendants of immigrants. The disturbing imagery associated with these issues evokes the warped reflections produced by concave mirrors in amusement parks, yet the reality depicted is profoundly troubling. What lies ahead?
(1) Esperpento is a captivating literary style that emerged in Spanish literature, pioneered by the talented Ramón María del Valle-Inclán, a multifaceted author born in Pontevedra on October 28, 1866, and who later passed away in Santiago de Compostela on January 5, 1936. As a playwright, poet, and novelist, Valle-Inclán was a key figure in the modernist movement. His unique approach employs twisted portrayals of reality to offer sharp critiques of society, delving into profound themes such as death, the grotesque, and the unsettling transformation of humans into mere objects.
Today…
Gas looks beyond the Middle East and turns its steps off from oil…
As winter approaches in the northern hemisphere, gas consumption is growing rapidly. Despite a slight price increase this Thursday, the cost of fuel for industry and heating in Europe remains almost unchanged from last week.
The shadow of Hormuz or why oil prices finally react to the Middle East turmoil…
Iran’s retaliation for Israeli attacks on Lebanon fuels fears that the political crisis will spread to the crude oil market
El Pais by Ignacio Fariza, Madrid 4 - 11 OCT 2024 Brazilian Vale appointed Gustavo Pimenta as president, effective October 1, 2024…
The succession process showed Vale’s strong integrity, transparency, and governance. "We are confident in Gustavo Pimenta as Vale's leader," Stieler stated.
Source: FORBES, August 28, 2024The shift towards sustainable energy will rely heavily on essential minerals and metals...
Source: MediaIn December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central
Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...
In a world that's constantly growing and grappling with inflation, the art of blogging faces its fair share of hurdles. To keep our content top-notch during these challenging times, we've poured resources into top-tier software, licenses, and stunning copyrighted images, among other essentials. But fear not, we're not navigating this journey alone! Just last week on "X," actions like "liking" or "retweeting" have become your secret weapons—free and private, thanks to "Musk" your support through these simple yet impactful gestures is not just a token of appreciation but a significant contribution that shapes our journey!
If you're feeling motivated to make a difference, consider extending your generosity through PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com, or by using our IBAN account: SE18 3000 0000 0058 0511 2611. Alternatively, you can effortlessly support our blog with a secure contribution via Stripe using the donation link. Every little bit helps!
Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!
https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1845410837021786310
Thank you for your kind contributions…
Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…
Natural Gas Terminal AES ANDRES, located in the Dominican Republic. Image provided by AES Dominicana.
The CEO asserts that we can start blending natural gas with green hydrogen today, despite its continued necessity for years.
“I am confident we will need natural gas for the next 20 years,” stated Andrés Gluski, President and CEO of AES, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in January 2023. “We can start blending it with green hydrogen today,” he added.
2022, the Njord Alpha oil platform, operated by Equinor, is being transported by the Siem Pearl vessel through the Norwegian fjord. Image and copyright by Germán & Co.
Gas looks beyond the Middle East and turns its steps off from oil…
As winter approaches in the northern hemisphere, gas consumption is growing rapidly. Despite a slight price increase this Thursday, the cost of fuel for industry and heating in Europe remains almost unchanged from last week.
El Pais by Ignacio Fariza, Madrid - 11 OCT 2024 Oil and gas rarely move in different directions: their prices tend to go together—almost always, but not always. Recent days are a vivid example of this cyclical asynchrony: the recent rise in the price of Brent has barely moved—to the surprise of many—to the main reference of the natural gas market in Europe, the Dutch TTF, which has been much less shaken by developments in the Middle East.
At the gates of the cold season in the northern hemisphere, when gas consumption grows exponentially, and despite the rise recorded this Thursday, the price of fuel in industry and heating in the Old Continent is almost the same level as at the beginning of last week.
It was as if Iran, the world's seventh-largest gas producer and second in reserves, had not wholly entered the conflict. As if the fear of an Israeli attack on its infrastructure-"a significant risk, though less likely than an attack on military facilities," in the words of Fernando Ferreira, geopolitical risk director at Rapidan Energy Group-is not a real option.
At the gates of the cold season in the northern hemisphere, when gas consumption grows exponentially, and despite the rise recorded this Thursday, the price of fuel in industry and heating in the Old Continent is almost the same level as at the beginning of last week. As if Iran, the world's seventh-largest gas producer and second in reserves, had not wholly entered the conflict. As if the fear of an Israeli attack on its infrastructure-"a significant risk, though less likely than an attack on military facilities," in the words of Fernando Ferreira, geopolitical risk director at Rapidan Energy Group-is not a real option. And as if the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a key enclave for the transit of hydrocarbons that passes through 20% of liquefied natural gas (LNG, which travels by boat) that moves every day in the world—would not have ceased to be a remote option to become something still far away but already plausible.
"Gas prices initially responded to the escalation of tension in the Middle East, but unlike oil, they settled later," says Tom Marzec-Manser, head of analysis for the gas market at the British consultancy ICIS. However, he recalls, "an increase in Egyptian demand, which is heavily dependent on Israeli gas, could reduce availability in Europe.
A reduction in Iranian production would impact the pipeline supply to Turkey, which would also strain the continental LNG market. "He is reassured, however, by the recent meeting between the Iranian and Qatari authorities to try to ensure the normal flow of gas exports from the emirate regardless of what happens in the geopolitical arena.
Risk premium…
There are some possible explanations for the fact that gas, an asset usually more nervous and volatile than crude oil, has yet to follow in the footsteps of its older brother. The first and perhaps most important is that methane prices remained strong while oil prices languished in summer. For example, we need to respond more effectively to the complete filling of underground deposits in the 27 (95% today) or to still weak European demand. Internalizing, instead, the meteorological models that foreshadowed a winter colder than last by the phenomenon of La Niña.
This higher starting point in the gas price already implied a higher risk premium for geopolitics. Both by Russia and Ukraine and to a lesser extent by Israel, Gaza, Lebanon and now also Iran. This is how Pedro Cantuel, an energy analyst at the Ignis Group, sees the recent upheaval in the Middle East "internalized" in the gas market. "The fundamentals remain robust, and the strong speculative exposure in the European market is already known... This higher starting point in the gas price already implied a higher risk premium for geopolitics. Both by Russia and Ukraine and to a lesser extent by Israel, Gaza, Lebanon and now also Iran. This is how Pedro Cantuel, energy analyst of the Ignis group, sees the recent upheaval in the Middle East "internalized" in the gas market. "The fundamentals remain robust, and the strong speculative exposure in the European market is already known... That, coupled with the instability in areas affecting LNG routes, keeps prices high, too, "sums it up. " Another thing", he adds, "would be to escalate the conflict in the Middle East even further".
Unlike oil, where most projections point to a clear stagnation of demand in the coming years, with the EU and China having already left behind their peak consumption for natural gas, most projections still point to a long decade of global growth. Hence, the expected landing of prices will come somewhat later.
No impact on the price of electricity…
The current situation has little to do with the immediate aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Not only because of the scale of the price crisis-still very incipient today, the biggest in the history of the Old Continent a couple of years ago because now the earthquake's epicentre is located in the crude and not in the gas. " The biggest current risk in the gas market is a cold winter in Europe," Marzec-Manser said.
This shift in the balance also has a sectoral impact: the oil boom affects mainly transport, while gas affects both industry and retail consumers. This was the case in the disastrous 2022 when they saw the cost of heating their homes and their electricity bill skyrocket.
Far from rising, the wholesale price of electricity is even lower today than a couple of weeks ago. This is not only because gas has not followed the footsteps of crude oil, but also because of the greater contribution of renewables. Wind and rain, in particular, have significantly boosted the generation of electricity in much of the European continent, providing an optimistic outlook for the future of energy economics. This increased reliance on renewables acts as an important buffer that limits the channels of contagion on families and SMEs.
Artwork by Germán & Co.
The shadow of Hormuz or why oil prices finally react to the Middle East turmoil…
Iran’s retaliation for Israeli attacks on Lebanon fuels fears that the political crisis will spread to the crude oil market
El Pais by Ignacio Fariza, Madrid - 03 OCT 2024 Oil is no longer immune to the powder magazines of the Middle East. After several weeks of general anaesthesia, with the price of crude oil at a low for almost three years, Iran’s entry into the conflict has rekindled latent fear: the regional clash will eventually result in an Israeli retaliation on Iranian wells or even an attack by Tehran on Saudi deposits or refineries, as happened in September 2019. The most extreme scenario, and feared for its consequences, would be the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, an absolutely crucial route that flows one-fifth of the world’s crude oil. The closure of this route between Iran and Oman, which is only 34 kilometres long at its most narrow point, would significantly blow the price balance.
Those who follow the daily energy markets have been absorbed for weeks, wondering how it was possible that the price did not react even minimally to the escalation in the Middle East, home to one out of every three barrels extracted daily on the planet. What we were seeing was something extraordinary in historical terms,” reflects Jorge León, vice president and head of oil analysis at the consultancy Rystad Energy, after many years as a senior analyst for OPEC.
Some rubbed their eyes: “A year ago, just with the conflict between Israel and Lebanon, the price of oil would have gone to triple digits [100 dollars]”, wrote Norbert Rücker, head of economic studies at the Swiss investment bank Julius Baer. A few hours before, Iran whipped up the regional hornet’s nest with two hundred missiles fired over Israeli soil and raised the price of Brent by four dollars in just two days.
The markets were confident that the shock would not be too great and that the large capacity or (surplus) capacity of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), at a maximum for many years, would compensate for any possible cut in production. But this fragile balance has been blown up by the Iranian attack on Israel, a move with consequences yet to be deciphered. Thus, the so-called geopolitical fatigue said goodbye: the false sense of security after not a single barrel had been sold in the almost 12 months since the Hamas attacks on Israel.
The current situation marks the first time someone has inquired about its limits. What is Israel’s response now? And what is Iran’s possible response? Will other [regional] actors be involved?” Trafigura chief economist Saad Rahim rhetorically asks in statements to Bloomberg. His voice is not light: Trafigura is one of the world’s largest commodity traders.
However, one thing is clear: “The oil market came from a stage of extreme complacency about geopolitical risk,” summarizes Bob McNally, former energy advisor to the US administration during the time of George W. Bush. “That risk premium will grow whether the market perceives that escalation directly impacts energy infrastructures or flows, or if Israel attacks infrastructure critical to the [Iranian] regime”.
When will the oil demand reach its peak? IEA and OPEC War of Numbers…
Despite the twist of the script in recent days, it is essential to put the climb into perspective. Even after two consecutive days of rising, which brought Brent to around $75 per barrel levels at the beginning of September, the European benchmark remains close to its annual lows.
And it remains, at least for now, a worrying element amid interest rate declines on both sides of the Atlantic. It would have to rise much more to become an inflationary factor again.
The second hot spot has to do with the significant change in the world market structure in recent years. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and even Kuwait have a significant spare capacity they could put on the market if needed: about eight million barrels per day, four of them in a very short time (less than 60 days). A significant buffer, superior to what Iran, the world’s seventh largest producer of crude oil, puts on the market every day: 3.2 million barrels, 4% of the total.
That should calm the market,” Leon says on the phone. China, a market where consumption is showing signs of weakness and where the electrification of transport clearly pushes down medium—and long-term forecasts, has already left its peak production behind. According to the calculations of the International Energy Agency (IEA), a theoretical surplus will start next year and reach its zenith in 2030.
Radical shift in market structure…
The world bazaar of crude oil has little to do with that of a decade ago. Although still significant, the weight of the Persian Gulf countries is noticeably lower, which reduces the proportion of oil subject to geopolitical turmoil. The other side of this coin is increasing production in Western countries or the Western orbit: Canada, Brazil, Guyana and, above all, the United States, which has managed to become the first extractor of crude oil on the planet at the back of hydraulic fracturing (fracking), a technique that has revolutionized the sector. The result of both forces is a greater volume of crude oil in the face of geopolitical upheaval.
There’s more. The second day of increases in crude oil prices coincided with the telematic meeting between members of the OPEC cartel, with the still-alive prospect of ending, as from December, the unilateral supply cuts they have tried to sustain prices in recent years. A step that, if taken, would push down the cost of crude oil.
If Israel’s [Iran’s] response is not too aggressive, markets might consider that both countries prefer to scale down after a short hostile exchange for the second time this year,” says Francesco Pesole of Dutch bank ING. “Leon’s Trench, referring to the potential closure of the Strait, the last weapon in the Iranian arsenal to damage the West economically and whose activation would elevate the conflict to another dimension. “The consequences on global supply would be huge, similar to the one that had the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022”—said soon.
Mr. Gustavo Pimenta, the president of Vale Brazil, was featured in a compelling photograph published by Forbes. Editing by Germçan & Co.
Brazilian Vale appointed Gustavo Pimenta as president, effective October 1, 2024.
Source: FORBES, August 28, 2024The board of directors of Brazilian Vale has unanimously elected Gustavo Pimenta as the company’s next president, replacing Eduardo Bartolomeo on October 1, as the company reported to the market in the early hours of last Monday.
The appointment was made following a rigorous selection process supported by an international standard company by Vale’s bylaws, corporate policies, board rules, and applicable legislation.
As the board chairman, Daniel Stieler, has pointed out, Pimenta has the skills to aim for a new virtuous circle for the company, with great potential for generating value for all its stakeholders.
“The succession process demonstrated the high level of integrity, transparency and solidity of Vale’s governance. We are very happy and confident with the choice of Gustavo Pimenta to lead Vale”, has defended Stieler.
The newly appointed president of Vale has thanked the council for their confidence in leading the company through this new cycle. “Let us walk this path together, intensifying dialogue with all our stakeholders and prioritizing the safety of people, operations and the environment. I am confident that we will continue to advance our mission, focusing on generating and distributing value, elevating Vale to even higher levels,” he said.
The outgoing president, Eduardo Bartolomeo, has been “very optimistic” with his replacement, whom he considers “a professional with recognized competence and commitment”.” With Gustavo Pimenta, I believe that Vale will continue firmly on its path towards leadership in sustainable mining and value creation for all stakeholders”, he noted.
Extensive experience in the financial, energy and mining sectors…
Pimenta is a global executive with experience in the financial, energy, and mining sectors and a career that has developed over twenty years in Brazil, the United States, and Europe.
In 2021, he took over as executive vice president of Finance and Investor Relations at Vale, where he also served as head of the Purchasing, energy, and Decarbonization areas.
Prior to joining Vale, Pimenta was an executive at AES for twelve years, accumulating extensive experience as global finance director, director of planning and strategy, and vice president of performance and services for the company, as well as Vice President of Strategy and M&A at Citigroup in New York.
The manager has a degree in Economics from the Federal University of Minas Gerais and a master’s in Finance and Economy from Fundação Getúlio Vargas.
"The Covert Conflict on Lithium: An Examination of the Other Hidden War" / https://energycentral.com/c/ec/covert-conflict-lithium-examination-other-hidden-war
The shift towards sustainable energy will rely heavily on essential minerals and metals...
Source: Media / Editing by Germán & Co.Throughout the tapestry of human history, the quest for minerals and metals has woven a rich narrative, beginning with our early education on the epochs of civilization: the Stone Age, Bronze Age, and Iron Age. These eras mark the passage of time and spotlight our ingenious advancements in harnessing the earth's treasures, underscoring our deep-rooted reliance on these natural resources.
In the Stone Age, our ancestors crafted tools from an array of stones—flint, chert, basalt, and sandstone—starting with a simple rock collection before evolving into more sophisticated open-pit and underground mining techniques. The Neolithic flint mines near Mons, Belgium, stand as a testament to this journey, showcasing the shift from surface to underground extraction. These early miners toiled for survival, fashioning essential tools and storage vessels. However, as their skills flourished, they began to explore the artistic and spiritual dimensions of earth materials, discovering that certain minerals could be transformed into vibrant paints.
The stunning cave paintings hidden beneath the Pyrenees, some of the finest remnants of the Paleolithic era, reveal a mastery of composition, perspective, and colour that still captivates us today. The reasons behind these artistic expressions remain mysterious—were they for storytelling, spiritual rituals, or something else entirely? What is clear is that cave painters cherished the vivid hues of ochre minerals, often embarking on long journeys to procure these pigments, which they frequently found near their artistic sanctuaries.
As the Stone Age gracefully transitioned into the Bronze Age, the advent of smelting techniques unlocked new possibilities for working with metals and ores. During this period, they also birthed a flurry of theories regarding the origins of ore deposits, primarily from Greek and Roman thinkers who spun tales steeped in myth and superstition rather than relying on empirical evidence. They envisioned the earth as a living entity, with ores sprouting from metallic exhalations or growing from seeds buried deep within. By the 16th century, alchemists speculated that celestial forces influenced ore formation. This notion was later scrutinized and refined by the German scholar Georgius Agricola in his seminal work, De Re Metallica. Thus, the saga of humanity's relationship with minerals and metals unfolds, a story of survival, creativity, and the relentless pursuit of knowledge.
A renewable energy transition will increase demand for critical minerals and metals, such as lithium, copper, manganese and rare earth elements. The market for key energy transition minerals has already doubled over the past five years, and the total demand for these materials in clean energy technologies is expected to increase between twofold or fourfold by 2040.
While continued growth will require more materials mining, the total amount of extraction needed to build a world that runs entirely on green energy by 2040 is far lower than that needed to maintain a fossil-fuelled energy system. In addition, energy production from fossil fuels needs continuous supply flows for combustion and is non-recyclable, whereas critical materials for energy transition are installed in equipment that can be used for years and then recycled at end of product life. While the renewable energy transition will lead to a decrease in extracted materials, it is vital that we ensure these metals are mined responsibly.
One key metal for which demand will grow more than most others in absolute terms is copper. This is due to its wide range of applications, unique conductive properties and ubiquitous use in electrification technologies. Consequently, annual copper demand is forecast to increase from 25 million tonnes currently to 55.1 million tonnes in 2050 under a 1.5°C scenario. New supplies will be needed to close the demand gap and avoid the worst impacts of the climate crisis.
Availability of metals…
The good news is that the required volumes of many metals are geographically well-distributed in known terrestrial reserves. Copper is distributed across Chile (23.6%), Peru (10%), the Democratic Republic of Congo (10%), China (8.6%), the United States (5.9%), and several other countries.
In the short term, the volumes of copper and most metals will come primarily from the same countries that mine them today, as it typically takes 10+ years to open new commercial mining operations. Processing capacity can be geographically diversified much faster than finding new mining locations with sound investment conditions and infrastructure. The US and the EU are implementing new initiatives and standards to promote the development of domestic mining operations and are also establishing strategic partnerships with other countries to build up new supply.
Mining’s social license…
Mining can disrupt large amounts of land, impacting biodiversity and ecosystems. It also uses vast quantities of water and creates tailings. In some cases, there have been catastrophic events that have had a major impact on human and environmental health, including the tailings dam failures at Samarco in 2015 and Brumadinho in 2019, both in Brazil.
In certain instances, both mining and processing can create emissions that can be harmful to the environment and human health. Mining is inherently regional – you can’t change where the deposit is, and the vast majority of mines are located within or adjacent to Indigenous Peoples territories or local communities. Just over 50% of the metals required for renewable energy transition are on or near Indigenous lands.
Health and safety, opportunities for employment and procurement, and protecting the rights of local and Indigenous Peoples are paramount. If these issues aren’t managed properly, they can create pushback by impacted communities.
Mining the responsible way
The first way to do responsible mining is through robust internal management systems, strong corporate governance and a well-established process for dialogue and grievances. The second is by implementing and getting external assurance against recognized standards.
There are a number of standards currently in practice: for example, the Mining Association of Canada’s Towards Sustainable Mining programme, covering biodiversity, climate change, crisis management, mine closure, Indigenous and community relations, among others.
Another standard is the Initiative for Responsible Mining Assurance (IRMA), which was developed by a multistakeholder board and is being implemented in South America and Africa. A final example is the CopperMark, an independent assurance framework to promote responsible practices across the copper, molybdenum, nickel and zinc value chains.
While these standards differ in their approach, they all share the same intent of improving the state of mining around the world. Regardless of the evaluation method, one fundamental aspect to responsible mining for the energy transition is transparency and reporting, with a new GRI standard for mining to guide the way. End users of metals can also take action to work towards more responsible practices by increasing supply chain transparency and promoting responsible mining practices.
Uncover The —Leitmotiv— of the Tragedy of the Trojan Horse on October 7, 2023.
Uncover The —Leitmotiv— of the Tragedy of the Trojan Horse on October 7, 2023.
The term 'no man's land' refers to a contested area that holds significant importance for international trade. The introductory section of this analysis delves into the enduring conflict between Israel and Palestine, a complex issue with historical roots that can be traced back to the Sykes-Picot Agreement of 1916. This agreement is often regarded as the inception of a long-standing conflict that has shaped societal dynamics and continues to resonate in contemporary discourse. It is crucial to approach this intricate historical situation with a commitment to objectivity.
Some historians argue that the conflict began on May 14, 1948, coinciding with the withdrawal of the last British troops from Palestine and the subsequent declaration of the State of Israel by Jewish leaders, notably David Ben-Gurion. In contrast, other historians propose alternative starting points, highlighting various events that may be pivotal in understanding the ongoing hostilities and tensions in the region.
The Six-Day War, which occurred on June 5, 1967, represents a significant military confrontation between Israel and Egypt within the broader context of the Arab-Israeli conflict. This conflict culminated in a decisive Israeli victory, resulting in Israel's acquisition of the Sinai Peninsula, the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, and the Golan Heights.
It is essential to comprehend the underlying causes of the tragic events that transpired during an electronic music concert in southern Israel on October 7, 2023, which resulted in harm to innocent young individuals. A clear distinction must be made between the historical narratives of the nations involved and the overarching narrative that has fostered a profound sense of betrayal among both populations, a sentiment rooted in the Sykes-Picot Agreement—a controversial treaty negotiated without the consent of the affected nations.
While it is necessary to confront the violent actions perpetrated by Hamas, it is equally important to critically assess the implications of the harsh and retaliatory measures employed by Benjamin Netanyahu's conservative government, to which Hamas has become accustomed. The Israeli Prime Minister expressed visible outrage and shock at the meticulously planned attack by Hamas, which was perceived as a significant failure by Israeli intelligence. In his address to the nation, Netanyahu's tone conveyed a blend of anger and determination to bring the perpetrators to justice, pledging to pursue retribution in a manner consistent with the principle of "an eye for an eye."
Netanyahu's strategic and calculated response to Hamas' clandestine operations raises questions regarding the efficacy and justification of his decisions in the context of Israeli security. The consequences of this escalation have resulted in substantial civilian casualties, particularly among innocent children, who have borne the brunt of this protracted conflict. The military actions undertaken by the Israeli army have been characterized as atrocities by numerous countries, including some key Middle Eastern allies of Israel, prompting widespread condemnation and calls for immediate international intervention to address the escalating humanitarian crisis in the region.
It is vital to acknowledge that Hamas possesses a comprehensive understanding of Israel's potential responses to its offensive actions, underscoring their awareness of the complex political dynamics at play. Furthermore, Hamas and its affiliates are cognizant of the prevailing global conditions, shaped by the repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the transition from a unipolar to a multipolar global order. These factors pose significant risks to public health and safety, potentially inciting discord, famine, and devastation, and may lead to conflicts reminiscent of those experienced during the interwar period. Historical evidence suggests that significant economic distress often exacerbates interpersonal conflicts.
In the initial examination of the dramatic events of October 7, 2023, the discourse centered on whether Israeli intelligence had failed or if Hamas had executed a calculated maneuver, fully aware of the potential for a severe Israeli response. However, the complexities of this situation reveal a narrative that transcends a binary interpretation. Hamas is acutely aware that the Palestinian people, who have endured persistent hardships and often find themselves marginalized in global politics, are eager to reclaim their voice in this ongoing struggle. Some analysts propose that, faced with limited avenues for influence, Hamas opted for a bold and risky strategy aimed at garnering attention and rallying support for the Palestinian cause throughout the Arab world.
Image by Germán & Co Who is ultimately responsible?
Are we really looking at a price tag of $100 for each barrel of oil?
Source: Media
Credential in Food and Beverage Tasting…
Historically, the role of the food taster was predominantly assigned to the elite, including kings and rulers, who lived in perpetual apprehension of being poisoned. Although this position may still exist in some contexts, it prompts an inquiry into who will assume the responsibilities of the contemporary equivalent of the food taster, particularly in relation to mobile technology such as pagers and mobile phones.
The Strait of Hormuz and its role in oil prices...
In a recent interview with the Spanish newspapper "EL PAÍS," Mr. Fatih Birol, the Director General of the International Energy Agency (IEA), expressed concerns regarding the current state of the oil market, highlighting its considerable instability and the possibility of further deterioration in the near future.
This edition includes the article "The Head of the International Energy Agency: 'The Oil Market is at Risk, and It May Deteriorate Further'" by Ignacio Fariza.
Artwork created by Germán & Co
Two Canals, Two Big Problems—One Global Shipping Mess…
Foreword:
The blog provided a series of insightful observations and key takeaways, elaborated upon throughout the article.: "The intention to provoke a global conflict should be distinctly apparent... on January 28, 2024, after an extensive year-long investigation into this anthropological case, which carries considerable economic implications."
(1) https://www.germantoroghio.com/blog-1-2/2tdyhe2ydwc5a9w-gwjg6-tgcw3-ceyxz-stany-sgyh7-nr9ny'No man's land' is a disputed region crucial for international trade…
The introductory section addressing the conflict between Israel and Palestine examines a multifaceted and persistent issue that can be traced back to the signing of the Sykes-Picot Agreement in 1916, as suggested by this blog. marking the start of an ancestral conflict. The historical roots of this deeply ingrained dispute have persisted over generations, shaping the dynamics of society and infusing the present with the weight of the past. It is essential to genuinely acknowledge the objectivity surrounding this complex historical case. Some historians assert that the conflict commenced on 14 May 1948, a date that coincides with the departure of the last British soldiers from Palestine and the subsequent declaration of the State of Israel in Tel Aviv by Jewish leaders, most notably David Ben-Gurion. Conversely, other historians propose alternative starting points for the conflict, emphasizing different events that may hold significance in framing the continuation of hostilities and tensions in the region. The Six-Day War constituted a military engagement between Israel and Egypt, situated within the broader context of the Arab-Israeli conflict. On 5 June 1967, the Israeli military executed a surprise aerial assault on Egypt, culminating in a decisive victory six days later. Consequently, Israel acquired control over the Sinai Peninsula, the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, and the Golan Heights.
It is imperative to understand the fundamental causes of the inhumane actions that occurred during an electronic music concert in southern Israel on October 7, 2022, resulting in harm to innocent young individuals. It is crucial to distinguish between the historical events of the nations involved and the broader narrative that has fostered a profound sense of betrayal among both populations. This sentiment can be traced back to the Sykes-Picot Agreement, a controversial historical treaty negotiated without the consent of the nations inhabiting the disputed territory, often referred to as no man's land.
The fact remains that we need to confront the violent actions of Hamas. At the same time, we must carefully consider the impact of Benjamin Netanyahu's extremely conservative government's harsh and retaliatory tactics, to which Hamas was already profoundly accustomed.
The Israeli Prime Minister was visibly enraged and stunned by the treacherous and carefully planned poison attack orchestrated by Hamas. The attack, designed to create chaos reminiscent of a Trojan horse, was deemed a significant failure by the Israeli intelligence establishment. As the leader addressed the nation, his voice reflected a mix of anger and determination to bring those responsible to justice. He vowed to pursue "an eye for an eye" and "a tooth for a tooth"” showing an unwavering commitment to holding the perpetrators accountable for their actions. Amidst the solemn atmosphere, the prime minister also emphasized the need for unity and resilience among the citizens, calling for solidarity in the face of such cowardly acts of violence.
Netanyahu meticulously, ruthlessly, and controversially executed a strategic and calculated scheme against Hamas' secret resources, perhaps for valid and pressing reasons stemming from the threat to Israeli security. The efficacy and justification of Benjamin Netanyahu's decisions in addressing the ongoing threats posed by Hamas will only become apparent over time. However, this escalation has resulted in significant civilian casualties, particularly among innocent children, who have disproportionately endured the consequences of this unrelenting conflict and have suffered immensely as a result. However, this provocation has resulted in enormous casualties in the civilian population, particularly innocent children, who have endured immense suffering as a result of these ongoing conflicts. The military actions by the Israeli army have been labelled as atrocities by many countries, including some influential Middle Eastern allies to the sovereignty of the state of Israel. This has led to widespread condemnation and calls for immediate intervention from the international community to address the escalating humanitarian crisis in the region.
It is imperative to recognize that Hamas possesses a thorough understanding of Israel's likely responses to any offensive actions, highlighting the importance of their awareness of the potential consequences of their decisions within the complex political dynamics of the region. Additionally, Hamas and its affiliates are cognizant of the prevailing global conditions, which have been influenced by the ramifications of the COVID-19 pandemic, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the transition from a unipolar to a multipolar global order. These factors pose significant risks to public health and safety, with the potential to incite discord, famine, and devastation, and may lead to conflicts reminiscent of those experienced during the interwar period. Historical evidence indicates that substantial economic distress frequently intensifies interpersonal conflicts among individuals.
The Lord of...
In the initial exploration of the dramatic events that unfolded on October 7, 2023, the focus was on whether Israeli intelligence had dropped the ball or if Hamas had orchestrated a daring and calculated move, fully aware of the potential for a fierce Israeli backlash. Yet, the intricacies of this scenario weave a tale far more complex than a simple yes or no. Hamas understands all too well that the Palestinian people, who have faced relentless hardships and often find themselves forgotten by global politics, are eager to reclaim their voice in this ongoing battle. Some experts suggest that, with their options for influence severely limited, Hamas opted for a bold and risky approach, aiming to capture attention and rally support for the Palestinian cause across the Arab world.
A Trap on Tehran...
On July 31, 2024, Tehran, the political centre of Iran, witnessed a notable and dramatic sequence of events characterized by the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas. (This incident occurred approximately two and a half months after the fatal helicopter crash that resulted in the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi.) This high-stakes operation is widely believed to be the strategic execution of Israeli intelligence and took place in a military-operated guesthouse where Haniyeh was residing following the grand inauguration celebration of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. The city was engulfed in the shocking news of this unexpected assassination, which cast a significant and ominous shadow of conspiracy over the political landscape. This incident has raised critical inquiries regarding the extensive infiltration of Israeli intelligence within the Arab world, particularly in relation to influential organizations such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran itself.
The recent targeted killing of Haniyeh has sparked widespread unease, particularly within the Iranian intelligence community. The Mossad, Israel's intelligence agency, has been likened to an undercover operation straight out of a James Bond movie, and its actions have dealt a severe setback to the Iranian military establishment.
However, considering the historical context of the Jewish presence in Persia, such dramatic events are only partially unexpected. Judaism boasts a remarkably rich and multifaceted history in Iran, tracing back to biblical times, with pertinent references found in the ancient texts of Isaiah, Daniel, Ezra, Nehemiah, Esther, and Chronicles that highlight the Jewish experience and contributions in Persia. Today, the largest population of Persian Jews, many of whom emigrated from Iran over the years, resides in Israel, with approximately 75,000 individuals recorded in 1993, which includes those from subsequent generations that followed. Due to various factors such as assimilation, obtaining an accurate current figure for this population is complex.
The integration of Persian Jews into Israel and the enduring presence of thousands in Iran gives Mossad a significant advantage. It's widely recognized that the Israeli Intelligence Agency has effectively embedded operatives within Iran, even reaching into the military echelons. Without such strong and deeply intertwined ties, the recent elimination of the Hamas leader at the end of July last year would have been nearly impossible to achieve, highlighting the complexities involved in such significant military actions.
Mossad's pager operation: Inside Israel's penetration of Hezbollah…
In the most recent edition of The Washington Post, delve into the intricate complexities surrounding Israel's strategic operations aimed at dismantling Hezbollah's communication networks is presented. Such actions may jeopardize numerous operatives, rendering them susceptible to potential harm or worse outcomes.
The evolution of communication technology is exemplified by the transition from traditional pagers, which once prompted urgent responses to perceived calls, to their current manifestation as lethal explosive devices—a transformation that evokes a sense of unease. Furthermore, the latent threats associated with contemporary mobile phones cannot be overlooked. This scenario illustrates the precarious condition of our global landscape and the disconcerting transformations it has experienced in recent years.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/10/05/israel-mossad-hezbollah-pagers-nasrallah/?nid=top_pb_signin&arcId=3PJTJ3E5UZEIXLNZB647BF5IV4&account_location=ONSITE_HEADER_ARTICLEFinally…
The question raised by the title of this post may elicit a seemingly straightforward answer: the attack that occurred on October 7, 2023, is widely acknowledged. However, the ramifications of this event are complex and reveal the varied perspectives emerging from different regions of Europe. Contemporary discussions suggest that certain individuals or entities may derive substantial benefits from the chaos of war. Unfortunately, this troubling notion may represent a harsh reality that many are reluctant to confront.
https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/global-affairs/emmanuel-macrons-call-to-halt-arms-supply-to-israel-for-use-in-gaza-triggers-fiery-response-from-benjamin-netanyahu/news-story/92af6b5172deb354ae18f4a715e3dba0In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central
Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...
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Thank you for your kind contributions…
Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…
Mr. Fatih Birol serves as the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency. Sorce: El País
The head of the International Energy Agency: "The oil market is at risk, and it can get worse."
Fatih Birol warns of the "serious bottleneck" that would imply the closure of the Strait of Ormuz, but it removes the ghost of the 100 dollars per barrel
The oil market had been in a strange state for weeks. After the brutal blow of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, all eyes were on a demand that was - and still is - showing clear signs of weakness. To everyone's surprise, not even the powder keg in the Middle East was putting a dent in prices. That all changed on Tuesday, with the attack on Israel by Iran, the seventh-largest producer and holder of the world's third-largest reserves, which has sent prices soaring and sowed an uneasy sense of unease. 'The situation of the oil market is risky, and could become even riskier,' warns the director general of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, in conversation with EL PAÍS.
The head of the energy arm of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD, the rich countries' think tank) sees two dangers on the immediate horizon. The first is that the war could escalate and involve other major producers in a vital energy region. 'That's the big unknown, what I don't know and I don't think anyone knows: whether, in the coming days or weeks, other countries will be directly affected...', he says over the phone. Five of the world's ten largest oil producers (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait) are in the Middle East. And three (Iran, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia) are major gas powers.
The second risk is that the conflict will 'end up affecting a strait through which a significant amount of oil flows'. A clear (albeit indirect) reference to Hormuz is the only possible link between the Persian and Oman Gulfs, controlled by Tehran and through whose waters one out of every five barrels of crude oil that move through every day in the world flows. With a daily flow of a thousand tankers, a potential closure by Iran would be a significant blow to prices.
'It is difficult to quantify the impact of the closure of Hormuz, but it would create a serious bottleneck. Especially if it is total,' warns Birol (Ankara, 66). An Israeli airstrike on Iran's oil infrastructure, a plausible option, seems more likely. 'I don't want to speculate on the implications of an attack that we don't know if it will happen,' the head of the Paris-based agency shirks. 'But if it does happen, we would see a further increase in volatility. In silver, if Hormuz closes, prices will rise vertically. The only question is how far.
Mitigating factors:
In less than a week, a barrel of Brent, the European benchmark, has risen from just 70 dollars to nearly 80 dollars. This is a substantial rise, but also significantly less than that recorded in the spring and summer of 2022, when Russian President Vladimir Putin unleashed the biggest energy crisis in Europe's history by invading Ukraine.
Then, the gas price quintupled in the blink of an eye, and oil reached almost 130 dollars. Far, far from today's levels. 'At the moment, global demand is quite weak and will peak before 2030. Thanks to that, prices are not rising any further,' Birol explains.
2024, according to his calculations, consumption will grow by just one million barrels per day, pushed down by weak economic growth in Europe and China and by the increasing electrification of transport. The IEA's forecast increase is significantly lower than most analysts, and the once all-powerful OPEC cartel (the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a colossus that has been shrinking over the years. 'We are in a relatively comfortable market situation, with a lot of supply and less demand,' argues Birol.
A muted rose:
A radical change in the market structure has also contributed to the recent muted price rise. 'An increasingly substantial amount of oil is coming from the US, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana: just what these countries are increasing their production is enough to cover the new demand. His numbers also point to an idle (spare) capacity of around five million barrels per day in several OPEC countries, 'especially in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates—a robust safety cushion to cope with possible disruptions in the future.
Even in the worst-case scenario of the closure of Hormuz - through which the bulk of Saudi, Qatari, and Emirati oil and gas travels to Europe - Birol sees little likelihood of a cataclysm comparable to that caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The Turkish economist, who is about to celebrate a decade at the helm of the IEA, denies the major: 'I wouldn't say so much: at that time, Russia was the world's leading oil exporter... I wouldn't put it on the same scale. He also rules out $100 a barrel, at least in the short term: 'Barring a major incident, I don't think we will see those figures... Unlike in the past, this new geopolitical situation comes when the market is far from tense. A slackness that, he says, makes 'an important difference' compared to 2022.
Impact of Regulatory Framework on Innovations in Electrical Energy Storage…
Battery Storage - a global enabler of the Energy Transition 2022...
The year 2021 marked yet another record-setting period for renewable energy, despite ongoing disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the escalating costs of raw materials globally. In retrospect, we may come to regard 2021 as a pivotal moment in the advent of the energy storage decade. The significant reductions in costs associated with wind, solar photovoltaic (PV), and energy storage technologies have greatly influenced the pace of renewable energy deployment within global power systems. Solar PV and onshore wind have emerged as the most economical sources of new energy generation for approximately two-thirds of the global population. As the proportion of variable renewable energy sources rises in comparison to traditional fossil fuel generation, the role of energy storage becomes increasingly critical for ensuring grid resilience and flexibility. Furthermore, the extensive deployment of wind and solar generation anticipated over the next decade will necessitate the widespread adoption of energy storage solutions as a balancing asset.
Workart by Germán & Co
Workart by Germán & Co
Battery storage is the —Holy Grail— of the modern electrical landscape, serving as a vital partner in harnessing and expanding renewable energy sources…
Numerous nations, including China, Germany and India, are actively pursuing initiatives to promote energy storage systems. Nevertheless, more suitable regulatory frameworks and effective pricing signals are needed to ensure the progress of energy storage solutions. These two factors widen the gap between the supply and demand for various energy technologies.
At the same time, increasing electricity demand has resulted in an overproduction of energy discharges, leading to the wastage of renewable energy. This issue is especially acute during midday when the gap between the deployment of photovoltaic systems and other energy technologies exacerbates the situation. As a result, electricity prices tend to fall during times of high photovoltaic generation.
Energy storage has been recognized as a critical technology for innovation. However, under existing regulatory frameworks, a swiftly evolving array of storage technologies may struggle to compete with traditional generators in delivering electricity system services, potentially stifling innovation. Barriers to investment, particularly regulatory obstacles, hinder the implementation of energy storage technologies in electricity markets.
In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central
Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...
In a world that's constantly growing and grappling with inflation, the art of blogging faces its fair share of hurdles. To keep our content top-notch during these challenging times, we've poured resources into top-tier software, licenses, and stunning copyrighted images, among other essentials. But fear not, we're not navigating this journey alone! Just last week on "X," actions like "liking" or "retweeting" have become your secret weapons—free and private, thanks to "Musk" your support through these simple yet impactful gestures is not just a token of appreciation but a significant contribution that shapes our journey!
If you're feeling motivated to make a difference, consider extending your generosity through PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com, or by using our IBAN account: SE18 3000 0000 0058 0511 2611. Alternatively, you can effortlessly support our blog with a secure contribution via Stripe using the donation link. Every little bit helps!
Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!
https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1838112772682375367Thank you for your kind contributions…
Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…
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The primary regulatory obstacle is the existing classification of energy storage as a “generation asset”. Furthermore, the merit order framework of balancing and ancillary markets hampers the constraints of capacity technologies to recoup their high comparative cost, while markets penalize expenditures.
Current initiatives include implementing flexible connection agreements, advancing enhanced frequency responses and aggregating fast reserve services.
To eliminate the identified barriers, one must establish a market structure that recognizes the value of the flexibility provided by storage, perceiving it as an imperative complement to, rather than a competitor with, network and generation assets.
In the past, energy storage in the electricity system has focused mainly on the raw materials used for generating electricity, such as coal and natural gas. Flexible generation capacity has been used to meet high demands in certain periods. With the growing use of renewable energy sources that depend on the weather and inflexible nuclear power plants in the electricity generation market, there are expected to be more frequent instances of excess supply during times of low demand.
Electrical energy storage technologies can capture and utilize this surplus energy to meet demand peaks, thereby enhancing stability and fortifying the resilience of low-carbon electricity systems. Energy storage's unique characteristic lies in its ability to decouple electricity generation from consumption, which facilitates improved grid management, optimizes the utilization of existing resources and supports the integration of large-scale renewable energy sources.
(1) Energy storage is considered a crucial technology for the future. The UK government has committed to a research and innovation programme in this field. Practical innovation is essential to lower the costs of technology and allow energy storage to be competitive with other electricity generation methods in the market.
Energy storage systems compete with other generation sources to sell electricity in various markets. However, the high capital costs and regulatory barriers associated with energy storage render it uncompetitive in most markets. The current regulatory framework surrounding the definition of energy storage is one of the significant barriers regarding network operators' ownership and operation of storage systems, especially in the issues associated with balancing ancillary services and capacity markets. In conclusion, governmental authorities in several countries are exploring alternatives to enhance the implementation of energy storage through modifications to existing regulatory frameworks.
Recalling the developments in the electrical market prior to the 1990s is essential, most electricity companies were state-owned, and pricing was heavily regulated. Following the liberalization of OECD member countries, large consumers procured electricity via contracts, while other generation methods were regulated by market mechanisms. The dynamics of pricing were influenced by high storage and generation costs, variable demand, and the necessity for a dependable system.
Additionally, energy storage systems have the potential to provide services in various ancillary markets, such as fast reserve and grid stability services, where they may become increasingly competitive in the near future. Furthermore, energy storage is anticipated to play a critical role in the wholesale energy market over the long term, with aggregators expected to facilitate the integration of smaller-scale technologies.
Again and again, energy storage technologies have the potential to make significant contributions throughout the electricity system. This includes their applications for generation, where they can assist with balancing and providing reserve power; in transmission, where they can aid in frequency control and defer investment; in distribution, where they can facilitate voltage control and support capacity; and at the end-user level, where they can enable peak shaving and contribute to cost reduction and management.
It is therefore, that impostargable, modifications to electricity markets aimed at promoting energy storage are intended to achieve two primary objectives: (i) stimulate innovation that will lead to a reduction in prices in the short term and (ii) facilitate optimal deployment that accurately reflects the increasing value of energy storage within the system over the long term. A more comprehensive understanding of the prospective value of energy storage to the broader energy system is essential.
(1) https://www.bakermckenzie.com/en/-/media/%EF%AC%81les/insight/publications/2022/01/battery-storage-a-global-enabler-of-the-energy-transition.pdf
Source: Large-scale Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) / bne IntelliNews
Vietnam explores battery energy storage systems to strengthen renewable energy sector
IntelliNews by BNO - Bangkok Office, September 23, 2024As Vietnam’s renewable energy sector expands rapidly, experts are advocating for the adoption of battery energy storage systems (BESS) to enhance energy security and stabilise the national grid, as reported by Tuoi Tre News.
Pham Dang An, deputy general director of Vu Phong Energy Group, stated that BESS is crucial for optimising renewable energy use and ensuring a reliable electricity supply. He urged the government to establish policies that support financial and technical standards for energy storage development. Sunita Dubey, regional lead at the Global Energy Alliance for People and Planet, highlighted the need for Vietnam to adapt its energy strategies as global companies increasingly commit to renewable energy.
She noted that a pilot project integrating BESS into the national grid is underway, targeting a storage capacity of 300 MW by 2030. Experts agree that implementing BESS will enhance grid flexibility, reduce carbon emissions, and lower electricity costs. This strategic move could position Vietnam as a leader in the renewable energy sector, aligning with global trends toward sustainable energy solutions. The successful integration of BESS is seen as a vital step in ensuring a reliable and sustainable energy future for the country.
The Fascinating Journey of Natural Gas in the Dominican Republic!
Embarking on an Exciting Adventure with Natural Gas in the Dominican Republic!
In a groundbreaking collaboration, Energas has teamed up with AES Dominicana and its affiliate Enadom to unveil a remarkable milestone that is set to transform the energy landscape and bolster the financial realm of the Dominican Republic.
This dynamic alliance, driven by a shared vision for a greener tomorrow, is on a mission to reshape the nation’s energy framework. With a focus on embedding sustainable practices deep within the power grid, they are fortifying its resilience and strength. The Dominican Republic's historical dependence on oil is being challenged by these passionate energy pioneers. Together, they are rallying behind Energía Natural Dominicana (EnaDom) to lead a natural gas revolution, ushering in a new era characterized by sustainability, reliability, and affordability.
Image by EnaDomEnergas, in collaboration with AES Dominicana and its subsidiary Enadom, has announced a significant achievement poised to revolutionize the energy sector and strengthen the financial industry of the Dominican Republic...
In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central
Keep in mind…
The addition of a second tank, boasting a storage capacity of 120,000 cubic meters, is set to bolster the Dominican Republic's natural gas supply by roughly 1,000 megawatts. Image credit goes to Enandom.
When the Russian invasion of Ukraine commenced in February 2022, (1) Europe had an unbelievable—modest— fleet of liquefied natural gas (LNG) regasification facilities, with a total capacity of approximately 160 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year. It is true that at that time, Europe's LNG infrastructure was somewhat constrained.
Following the supply crisis, the demand for natural gas in the European Union—a major force in the global energy market with a strong reliance on natural gas, constituting about 25% of its energy mix—has soared. In 2021, the EU's natural gas demand jumped to 412 billion cubic meters, marking a 4% increase from the previous year. Although pipeline gas remains predominant in imports, liquefied natural gas (LNG) is on the rise, securing 24% of the market share by 2024. Currently, 11 EU Member States have embraced LNG, with a total annual regasification capacity of 160 billion cubic meters. In response to the Ukraine crisis, Europe has accelerated over 20 natural gas projects to reduce its reliance on Russian gas. Germany is notably proactive, constructing LNG import terminals, and other countries are also considering LNG as a vital part of their strategies to become independent from Russian gas.
(1) https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=54780
Andrés Gluski, President and CEO of The AES Corporation, expressed his views, stating, "I feel very confident in saying that we need natural gas for the next 20 years." He continued, "What we can begin to do today is start to blend it with green hydrogen."
Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...
In a world that's constantly growing and grappling with inflation, the art of blogging faces its fair share of hurdles. To keep our content top-notch during these challenging times, we've poured resources into top-tier software, licenses, and stunning copyrighted images, among other essentials. But fear not, we're not navigating this journey alone! Just last week on "X," actions like "liking" or "retweeting" have become your secret weapons—free and private, thanks to "Musk" your support through these simple yet impactful gestures is not just a token of appreciation but a significant contribution that shapes our journey!
If you're feeling motivated to make a difference, consider extending your generosity through PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com, or by using our IBAN account: SE18 3000 0000 0058 0511 2611. Alternatively, you can effortlessly support our blog with a secure contribution via Stripe using the donation link. Every little bit helps!
Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!
https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1832786182683414879Thank you for your kind contributions…
Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…
AES Andrés' liquefied natural gas regasification plan, image provided by AES Dominicana.
The Incredible Adventure of Natural Gas in the Dominican Republic!
Enadom has unveiled a groundbreaking milestone that promises to transform the energy landscape and boost the financial realm of the Dominican Republic.
Yesterday, Energas announced a significant development in the Dominican Republic's energy and financial sectors. We successfully completed a USD 300 million bond issuance through our joint venture, ENADOM, in collaboration with AES Dominicana. This achievement, approved by the Superintendencia del Mercado de Valores, comes with a DOAA rating and assets supporting 800 MW of natural gas. The investment's substantial impact on the Dominican Republic's energy and financial markets is clear. The proceeds from this bond issuance will be instrumental in financing essential expansions, a crucial step towards ensuring a cleaner and more competitive energy supply for the future.
The company's rebranding as Energas is not just a name change. It's a significant development that underscores our unwavering commitment to the energy sector and clear vision for a sustainable and efficient future.
This achievement signifies progress towards a more sustainable future and offers substantial financial advantages. We project savings exceeding one billion dollars over the next decade from eliminating costly oil derivatives from the national energy system.
“Our efforts have substantially reduced carbon dioxide emissions, with a decrease of 460,000 metric tons annually. This decrease translates to a significant reduction in our ecological footprint, a fact that we can all take pride in and advocate for, as stated by Mr. Rolando González Bunster, President of the Board of Directors of Energas…
Mr. Rolando González Bunster, President of the Board of Directors of Energas...
Mr. González Bunster has reaffirmed our commitment to sustainable energy by announcing plans to construct a fourth-generation unit will enhance our energy supply. This commitment drives us to continually seek new investment opportunities that contribute to developing our markets, aligning with our vision to produce reliable, affordable, and progressively cleaner energy.
While this historical resonance might seem like a routine business affair, it signifies a profound transformation across various dimensions.
Natural gas is a fuel that sparks passionate advocacy and heated discussions in today's world, and unfortunately is a to engine conflicts for its massive demand while also being seen as a crucial player in the transition to a more sustainable energy future over the coming decades. To transform the gas into a liquid, it must undergo a chilling metamorphosis, cooled to a bone-numbing 160°C, making transportation possible.
Well, the introduction of natural gas into the Dominican Republic began over twenty years ago with the efforts of AES Dominicana took a significant step by entrusting CB&I with a comprehensive, fixed-price contract for the LNG import terminal’s engineering, procurement, and construction. The ambitious project featured a colossal 160,000 m3 LNG storage tank and three high capacity unloading arms, each capable of swiftly offloading LNG vessels at an impressive rate of 10,000 m3 per hour. The terminal plays a crucial role in delivering natural gas to a variety of customers in the industrial, transportation, and power sectors, including the nearby AES Andres power station and the DPP Los Mina power station, which is operated by Dominican Power Partners and located just 34 km to the west.
Yes, twenty years ago…
The Dominican Republic stands as a shining example on the global stage for its integration of natural gas into the electricity sector.
Why?
The onset of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 caught Europe with a relatively small number of liquefied natural gas (LNG) regasification facilities, with a total capacity of approximately 160 billion cubic meters per year. It is well acknowledged that at that time, Europe's LNG infrastructure was not as developed. Looking back over the two decades since the creation of the AES Andrés LNG terminal and regasification projects in the Dominican Republic, it prompts reflection on the type of foresight and innovation that will define the energy sector's future in a constantly changing world.
A glimpse into the future of the nation...
Workart by Germán & Co
Often, our memory is short...
Image…
“Imagine a world where the skies gift us with electrical rainfall, a phenomenon where energy cascades from the heavens, promising to power our dreams and innovations. This is not just a flight of fancy, but a vision of a future where renewable energy is as natural and abundant as the rain that nourishes our earth. In this blog entry, we'll explore the exciting possibilities of harnessing the power of electrical storms, turning the might of nature into a sustainable source that could light up our cities and homes, and spark a revolution in how we think about and use energy. Join us on this electrifying journey as we delve into the potential of electrical rainfall and its role in powering a brighter, cleaner future. Imagine if we could store all this wonderful energy...
“Ojalá Que Llueva Café” the song by Dominican songwriter Juan Luis Guerra is about the desire for a better life in the countryside. The song focuses on the metaphor of rain, specifically the rain of coffee, which alleviates the drought and hardships of rural life and provides abundant food and joy. Guerra’s lyrics depict a heavenly landscape of clouds seeding the fields with coffee and other crops such as cassava, tea, white cheese, watercress, honey, wheat, and a variety of trees. It describes people reaping the land’s bounty, celebrating, and singing together. The song is an ode to the impoverished rural areas of the Caribbean, where most of Guerra’s music is rooted, and an anthem of hope for a better life. Besides, access to electricity is vital. Indeed, electricity is no longer a luxury; rather, it’s a fundamental right. It powers our homes, fuels progress, and connects us globally. Just as coffee rain provides sustenance, electricity brings light, warmth, and opportunity. It’s a lifeline for rural communities, bridging gaps and enabling growth.
Energas and AES Join Forces to Kick the Dominican Republic's Oil Habit
The Power of Partnership is on a quest to forge a greener future in the Dominican Republic. United by the common goal of transforming the country's energy matrix, they strive to integrate sustainable practices into the power grid's very core, reinforcing its strength and resilience. The Dominican Republic's long-standing reliance on oil is being challenged by these dedicated energy partners. Together, they rally behind Energía Natural Dominicana (EnaDom) to spearhead an energy revolution with natural gas, heralding an era that promises sustainability, reliability, and affordability.
Energas has established itself as a pivotal force in the Dominican Republic's energy sector, managing the 300 MW capacity of the San Pedro de Macoris Electricity Company (CESPM) located in the country's eastern region. As a reliable source of energy for years, Energas has illuminated countless lives while fostering community development via economic and social programs. Looking to the future, Energas is poised to embark on the next chapter of its sustainable energy narrative by converting its CESPM facility from diesel to natural gas-powered generation.
The partnership between Energas and AES is driven by a mutual commitment to guide the Dominican Republic towards a sustainable future, transitioning from traditional energy sources to natural gas. Energas is a key player in the country's power generation sector and is keen to adopt sustainable methods that will propel the nation's energy shift. AES Dominicana has been pivotal in introducing natural gas to the area, saving consumers over half a billion dollars and reducing CO2 emissions by four million tonnes each year.
Solar Farms Boast A Superpower Beyond Generating Clean Energy...
Solar farms deliver more than clean energy...
If elected in November, former President Trump could reverse President Biden's climate legislation, potentially jeopardizing $488 billion in U.S. investments and the future of renewable energy.
In a recent speech to Wall Street executives, Donald Trump outlined an economic strategy focused on lower taxes, increased tariffs, and minimal regulations, though some proposals were met with scepticism. At the New York Economic Club, he reiterated his commitment to reducing corporate regulations, promoting domestic production, and imposing high tariffs on companies that outsource jobs—promises of lower taxes, less regulation, and reduced energy costs.
Solar and wind energy expansion has been significant but varies by region and sector.
In 2023, wind and solar energy became the leading global energy sources, but rising energy demand also increased coal and oil consumption, contributing to higher carbon dioxide emissions.
Regional Disparities: Solar and wind energy are growing globally, with China's 2023 solar photovoltaic capacity matching the total added by the rest of the world in 2022. However, other regions need help with policy uncertainty, insufficient grid investment, and complex administrative procedures.
By October 2023, solar energy installations in Europe matched last year's total, while wind energy growth lagged, creating an imbalance in renewable energy development.
Achieving global renewable energy targets, like tripling capacity by 2030, requires substantial policy support and investment. Addressing policy delays, grid infrastructure challenges, financial obstacles, and the inclusion of energy storage technology in the new electrical system is crucial.
The New York Times recently highlighted solar energy's environmental benefits.
Artwork by Germán & Co “Mr.Trump Says Clean Energy Is a Scam. That Could Benefit China, Experts Say…
President Biden’s landmark climate law could be repealed by a Trump administration. Economists said that would jeopardize $488 billion in American investments.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/26/climate/trump-clean-energy-china.html“Donald Trump laid out a sweeping economic vision of lower taxes, higher tariffs and light-touch regulation in an address to executives on Wall Street, where some of his plans have been greeted with skepticism.
In the speech before the Economic Club of New York on Thursday, the former president doubled down on proposals to slash rules on companies, reward those that keep production in the U.S., and impose punishing tariffs on any business that moves jobs or manufacturing overseas.
“I am promising low taxes, low regulations, low energy costs, low interest rates, secure borders, low low low crime and surging incomes for citizens of every race, religion, color and creed,” Trump said in the more than hour-long talk. “My plan will rapidly defeat inflation, quickly bring down prices and reignite explosive economic growth.”.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/05/trump-economy-00177543Well, the growth of solar and wind energy has been substantial but has varied widely across different regions and sectors. Below are some key points:
Global Trends: The year 2023 was a landmark year as wind and solar energy surpassed all other sources in the global energy mix for the first time. Nonetheless, the surge in overall energy demand led to increased coal and oil consumption, resulting in a rise in global carbon dioxide emissions.
Regional Disparities: The global expansion of solar and wind energy is significant, with China adding a remarkable amount of solar photovoltaic capacity in 2023, matching the rest of the world's total from 2022. However, other regions face challenges due to policy uncertainties, insufficient investment in grid infrastructure, and complex administrative processes.
Current Situation in Europe: In October 2023, Europe's solar energy installations hit a record, equaling the total installations of the previous year. In contrast, the growth of wind energy has been slower, causing an imbalanced progress in renewable energy sources.
Achieving global renewable energy targets, such as tripling renewable capacity by 2030, necessitates considerable policy support and investment. It is essential to address policy delays, grid infrastructure inadequacies, and financial obstacles in developing countries.
The uneven growth underscores the critical need for joint efforts to ensure that solar and wind energy make an effective contribution to a sustainable energy future.
Today, The New York Times featured an insightful article detailing the numerous environmental benefits of solar energy, emphasizing the pressing need for enhancements in the electrical grid and underscoring the pivotal role of battery storage technology in facilitating the transition to new energy systems.
In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central
Simply "MAXIMO," The Pharaoh Of The Sun...
“Maximo is the first proven solar installation robot on the market,” said Andrés Gluski, AES President and CEO. “We are facing unprecedented increases in demand, driven in large part by the rise of AI and data centers, and innovations like these will be fundamental for accelerating our ability to bring projects online faster and with greater efficiency.”
Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...
In a world that's constantly growing and grappling with inflation, the art of blogging faces its fair share of hurdles. To keep our content top-notch during these challenging times, we've poured resources into top-tier software, licenses, and stunning copyrighted images, among other essentials. But fear not, we're not navigating this journey alone! Just last week on "X," actions like "liking" or "retweeting" have become your secret weapons—free and private, thanks to "Musk" your support through these simple yet impactful gestures is not just a token of appreciation but a significant contribution that shapes our journey!
If you're feeling motivated to make a difference, consider extending your generosity through PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com, or by using our IBAN account: SE18 3000 0000 0058 0511 2611. Alternatively, you can effortlessly support our blog with a secure contribution via Stripe using the donation link. Every little bit helps!
Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!
https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1832025924889456996Thank you for your kind contributions…
Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…
AES Dominicana's BAYASOL is a 58 MW photovoltaic plant composed of fixed-structure monocrystalline modules, with an annual generation capacity of 99,100 MWh, situated in Matanzas, Dominican Republic. Image courtesy of AES Dominicana.
Solar Farms Have a Superpower Beyond Clean Energy…
The sites fight climate change and can help with another global crisis: the collapse of nature. But so far, efforts to nurture wildlife habitat have been spotty…
The New York Times article, written by Catrin Einhorn on September 5, 2024, details her visits to seven solar sites across California and Minnesota.It’s not your average solar farm.
The glassy panels stand in a meadow. Wildflowers sway in the breeze, bursts of purple, pink, yellow, orange and white among native grasses. A monarch butterfly flits from one blossom to the next. Dragonflies zip, bees hum and goldfinches trill.
As solar projects unfurl across the United States, sites like this one in Ramsey, Minn., stand out because they offer a way to fight climate change while also tackling another ecological crisis: a global biodiversity collapse, driven in large part by habitat loss.
The sun’s clean energy is a powerful weapon in the battle against climate change. But the sites that capture that energy take up land that wildlife needs to survive and thrive. Solar farms could blanket millions of acres in the United States over the coming decades.
So developers, operators, biologists and environmentalists are teaming up with an innovative strategy.
“We have to address both challenges at the same exact time,” said Rebecca Hernandez, a professor of ecology at the University of California, Davis, whose research focuses on how to do just that.
Insects, those small animals that play a mighty role in supporting life on Earth, are facing alarming declines. Solar farms can offer them food and shelter by providing a diverse mix of native plants.
Such plants can also decrease erosion, nourish the soil and store planet-warming carbon. They can also attract insects that improve pollination of nearby crops.
Pollinator-friendly solar can pay off for business, too, potentially saving money and giving projects an edge for approval at a time when communities are increasingly wary of vast solar farms. Developers are taking note.
But there’s a broad spectrum of pollinator friendliness and little agreement on what efforts should count. Standards are often nonexistent. Some big projects are limiting pollinator habitat to tiny corners of their sites. Ecological value varies widely.
Communities may not understand the difference, and corporate marketing may exaggerate. That’s led to accusations of greenwashing.
Pollinator habitat on solar farms is “a serious work in progress,” said Scott Black, executive director of the Xerces Society for Invertebrate Conservation, a nonprofit group that is working on an effort to bring some clarity by certifying solar sites.
“It’s not fair if some people are truly stepping up to do this right and another company is barely doing anything and saying they’re pollinator friendly,” he said.
‘If you build it, will they come?’
A study released last year revealed that the number of insects had tripled over a five-year period on experimental plots at two solar sites in Minnesota. Image by Germán & Co.
On a recent morning at the solar meadow in Ramsey, it was time to count insects.
Among the rows of panels at the 18-acre site, Lee Walston, a landscape ecologist at Argonne National Laboratory, found plastic flags marking one of his research tracts. He set off with two students through plants that brushed above their knees, eyes scanning below.
“There’s a sweat bee,” Mr. Walston said, pointing to a bee that glistened metallic green.
“I’ve got a moth and two hoverflies,” one of the students said. The other recorded observations.
In solar pollinator habitat, Minnesota was an early leader among states. Since 2017, funded by the Department of Energy, Mr. Walston has been studying sites there and throughout the Midwest.
“If you build it, will they come?” he asks in his research. So far the answer is a resounding yes, if you grow the right plants.
In a study published late last year, his team found that insect abundance had tripled over five years on test plots at two other Minnesota solar sites. The abundance of native bees grew twentyfold.
Native plants draw a variety of pollinators. Image by Germán & Co.
The results come amid a global decline of wildlife that leaders are struggling to address. Some of the most well-known insect species are in trouble: Later this year, the federal government is expected to rule on whether to place monarch butterflies on the Endangered Species List. North American birds, for their part, are down almost 30 percent since 1970.
But at this site, called Anoka County Solar, acoustic monitoring has documented 73 species of birds, presumably attracted by the buffet of seeds and insects. Some build nests in the structures supporting the panels.
Mammals are showing up, too. Mr. Walston checked a trail camera before leaving, hoping to discover the occupant of a remarkably large burrow: A fox, he thought, or a badger. No luck.
(It’s trickier to make solar sites friendly to large wild animals, in part because developers are nervous to let them near expensive infrastructure, but efforts are underway there, too.)
What makes this meadow possible is the height of the panels. A prairie restoration firm had told ENGIE, the owner and developer, that taller panels would allow for a sharp increase in native vegetation species, providing much more ecological diversity, said John Gantner, the director of engineering and delivery for ENGIE’s smaller-scale sites.
The price of the additional steel and the native seeds were “insignificant to the overall project cost,” Mr. Gantner said. Over the life of the project, ENGIE has found, pollinator friendly landscaping actually saves money because it needs far less mowing.
“We’ve calculated and ran the numbers and there’s significant savings,” Mr. Gantner said.
But many other projects, especially big utility-scale sites, avoid the taller panels. Margins are razor tight, developers say, and the higher costs up front feel too risky or even insurmountable.
That limits the options for landscapers.
“When I sit down and do a utility-scale solar project seed mixture, and I look in my toolbox, it’s like I have a rusty screwdriver and a roll of duct tape,” said Peter Berthelsen, a wildlife biologist who runs a company that specializes in creating habitat for solar projects.
He scours his sites for any patch of land that doesn’t have panels. In those areas, which he said often encompass 10 or 20 percent of a given site, he plants a native pollinator mix of at least 40 species.
Under the panels, he and others often turn to Dutch white clover. While that provides some nectar for native insects like bumblebees, it’s considered better forage for honeybees, an introduced agricultural species. (Honeybees pollinate plants and make a delicious food for people, but ecologists generally don’t view them as wildlife in need of conservation.)
The more plant diversity allowed under the panels, Mr. Berthelsen said, the more environmental benefits will follow. Still, he cautioned, it’s important to “not let the pursuit of perfection be the enemy of doing something good.”
In measuring ecological values, the starting point is fundamental, scientists say. Replacing a field of row crops with solar panels and clover would provide a net benefit for pollinators, even without a mix of native species. On the other hand, no amount of high-quality seeding will match the ecological value of an intact ecosystem, especially in places where solar panels would require the removal of trees or shrubs.
Nationwide, it’s unclear what portion of solar farms include any kind of pollinator habitat. The federal project that Mr. Walston is part of has a running rough count of just under 24,000 acres. That’s compared with about 600,000 acres of currently operating large-scale sites across the country, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association, with a sharp increase expected over the next couple decades.
Then there’s the question of developers delivering on their commitments.
‘Not enough plants here’
Four years ago, a project was in development outside Sacramento. Described as “a pollinator friendly solar farm,” even its name signaled ecological beauty: Wildflower Solar. “Fostering biodiversity and boosting crop yields for the community,” a brochure read.
Developed by Lightsource BP, which is co-owned by the oil and gas giant, one aspect of the project raised questions from the beginning: Diverse pollinator vegetation was restricted to a garden on roughly 1.5 acres of the 67 acre site in an area underneath transmission lines.
Throughout the panels, the company said it would use a seed mix of five native grasses and a smaller amount of native clover. That’s better than turfgrass, scientists say, but it doesn’t come close to the benefits from a more diverse assemblage. At the time, Lightsource BP defended its decision to a reporter for Inside Climate News, claiming that the entire site would be pollinator friendly.
Dr. Hernandez of U.C. Davis wished the project was going further. But she was pleased about one thing: a pledge to plant more than 200 native trees and shrubs along the perimeter, on the edge of a rural neighborhood. The plantings would not only create a more attractive view for the community, but also a corridor of habitat for wildlife.
But when she drove by last year, Dr. Hernandez said, she didn’t see any plantings.
In May, Dr. Hernandez accompanied me to Wildflower. The 200 trees and shrubs, promised both in planning documents submitted to the county and in marketing materials, were nowhere to be seen. Instead, the area was overgrown with invasive grasses and noxious weeds like yellow star thistle, which the state has spent millions trying to eradicate. After tromping through shoulder-high, dried-out vegetation, we found the remnants of a few plantings underneath.
“There’s not enough plants here,” Dr. Hernandez said. “And there’s no vegetation management.”
In interviews and follow-up emails, representatives for Lightsource BP said the trees and shrubs had been planted around fall 2020 and blamed drought for their demise. They said they had instructed their landscaping contractor “to solicit replacement plantings and a robust, multiyear care plan for the landscaping trees and shrubs.” They did not say why the problems had not been addressed earlier.
Alyssa Edwards, who leads environmental affairs and governmental relations for Lightsource BP, said the company was a leader in the industry when it came to biodiversity.
“It really is in our ethos, and it’s embedded into the way we develop, construct and operate projects,” Ms. Edwards said. The company’s Facebook page regularly posts about its commitment to biodiversity. But she was clear: “We do not raise our panels to accommodate pollinators.”
At least 15 states have some kind of pollinator scorecard, meant to guard against greenwashing by awarding points for various ecologically valuable features. States do not require certification, but in many cases a project must achieve a certain score to declare itself pollinator friendly.
But the scorecards have been criticized as both too weak and too stringent. On one hand, they typically lack a mechanism for monitoring, simply relying on a company’s promises. On the other, developers say some of the standards are not feasible given realities on the ground. When some local governments started mandating use of the scorecards, some in the industry pushed back, saying it could have a chilling effect on solar development.
A new nongovernmental certification is in the works, a partnership between the Electric Power Research Institute, an industry-funded research group, and the Xerces Society. But the effort has proceeded slowly as partners try to find compromise between the needs of the solar industry and the needs of nature. The current draft would require 15 percent of vegetated areas on the site to include a diverse mix of native, pollinator friendly vegetation.
“On one side, we want to protect biodiversity and pollinators. On the other side, we need the most efficient way to get kilowatt hours to customers, to power at the plug,” said Jessica Fox, a conservation biologist with the electric power institute. “So we’re doing this work now to find where is a middle space.”
Among the challenges developers face: Higher upfront costs are no guarantee of greater savings. Landscapers with the right experience can be hard to find, as can native seeds.
Not every site is even appropriate for pollinator habitat, Ms. Fox noted. And even when they are, each has its own distinct characteristics. Climate, topography, soil type and other factors all change the palette of possibilities. For example, not far from Wildflower, at a site called Rancho Seco Solar II, the presence of endangered salamanders made it difficult for scientists to prepare the soil before planting a research plot with three native seed mixes.
The site’s owner, the Sacramento Municipal Utility District, sees more promise in creating a hedgerow of more than 300 native shrubs and perennials along the perimeter of the site, which can increase habitat connectivity without complicating matters with the solar panels.
Given the urgency to tackle both global warming and biodiversity loss, solar sites should be experimenting with promising solutions, scientists say.
“We’re in this infancy, the infancy of trying to make this work and to do better,” Dr. Hernandez said. “And we need to get there faster.”
(WSJ) Today,Trump Wants to ‘Drill, Baby, Drill,’ but Can He Cut Energy Prices?
Today, Trump advocates for 'Drill, Baby, Drill,' but can he reduce energy prices?
The GOP nominee's anti-inflation strategy emphasizes reducing gas and electricity costs, sectors over which a president has limited influence.
Despite low natural gas prices and the expansion of wind and solar power, consumers still face delivery charges for the use of America's outdated electrical infrastructure. These costs are expected to rise as the system undergoes much-needed modernization.
The demand for electricity is increasing in many states due to the proliferation of data centers, industrial growth, and the shift towards electric vehicles and heating. This surge necessitates new power generation, while utilities and grid operators also strive to maintain existing, dependable sources.
Vince Duane, principal at Copper Monarch and former general counsel at PJM Interconnection, the nation's largest power grid operator, notes, "When all is said and done, the monthly bill arrives, and it's on an upward trend."
Image by Germán & Co “GOP nominee’s anti-inflation pitch focuses on lower costs for gas and electricity, areas where a president has limited control…
In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central
Image: Germán & Co via Shutterstock
“Ukraine's vast natural gas storage facilities can still offer Europe a lifeline this winter even as Russian bombs target the sites, the head of the country's national energy company told POLITICO.
Simply "MAXIMO," The Pharaoh Of The Sun...
“Maximo is the first proven solar installation robot on the market,” said Andrés Gluski, AES President and CEO. “We are facing unprecedented increases in demand, driven in large part by the rise of AI and data centers, and innovations like these will be fundamental for accelerating our ability to bring projects online faster and with greater efficiency.”
Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...
In a world that's constantly growing and grappling with inflation, the art of blogging faces its fair share of hurdles. To keep our content top-notch during these challenging times, we've poured resources into top-tier software, licenses, and stunning copyrighted images, among other essentials. But fear not, we're not navigating this journey alone! Just last week on "X," actions like "liking" or "retweeting" have become your secret weapons—free and private, thanks to "Musk" your support through these simple yet impactful gestures is not just a token of appreciation but a significant contribution that shapes our journey!
If you're feeling motivated to make a difference, consider extending your generosity through PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com, or by using our IBAN account: SE18 3000 0000 0058 0511 2611. Alternatively, you can effortlessly support our blog with a secure contribution via Stripe using the donation link. Every little bit helps!
Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!
https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1830978822012916135Thank you for your kind contributions…
Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…
"The Phoenix Birds, " featuring President Trump," crafted by Germán & Co.
Trump Wants to ‘Drill, Baby, Drill,’ but Can He Cut Energy Prices?
The Wall Street Journal article by David Uberti and Jennifer Hiller, dated September 4, 2024.Donald Trump says he can rapidly cut Americans’ energy costs by 50% or more, a welcome prospect for inflation-weary voters. It is easier said than done.
The Republican presidential nominee says he will rely on a favorite campaign slogan to accomplish the feat: Drill, baby, drill. Trump says faster permitting, weaker environmental regulations and other measures will unleash more production of oil and natural gas and push down prices at the pump and on electricity bills.
But many drillers don’t share Trump’s gusto for more drilling. They are more focused on returning cash to shareholders than on growing production.
Meanwhile, energy prices are shaped by complex global and regional markets that don’t respond quickly to executive orders. Electricity costs in the country’s disjointed power system can swing based on events such as nearby weather patterns driving demand and far-off wars constricting fuel supplies.
“It’s mostly just bluster, because the president doesn’t have any direct control,” said Michael Webber, a professor of energy resources at the University of Texas at Austin.
Middling oil prices and historically low natural-gas prices this year have given producers little incentive to ramp up. Photo: Nate Smallwood for WSJ
The reasons for Trump’s pitch are clear. Soaring costs for gasoline, power and heating fuel busted Americans’ budgets and helped inflation skyrocket to 40-year highs. Even as price pressures relented in recent months, helped in part by fading gasoline costs, the price hike for electricity nationally have outpaced the rate of overall consumer price increases.
“The effects of President Trump’s plan will be seen immediately—energy prices will plummet in anticipation of new supply, which will in turn reduce the prices of all consumer goods,” a campaign spokeswoman said.
Drill, baby, drill
For many of the biggest shale drillers, “Drill, baby, drill” has become an anachronism.
The companies that turned the U.S. into an oil-and-gas juggernaut are increasingly cautious, thanks to an uncertain outlook for the global economy and painful memories of past busts. Wall Street has pushed producers toward maximizing profits, not growth, siphoning cash out of oil fields and into returns. Middling oil prices and historically low natural-gas prices this year have given producers little incentive to ramp up.
“There is nothing that you could wave your magic wand at from a political perspective and get that kind of an increase in production,” said Adam Rozencwajg, managing partner at the natural-resource investment firm Goehring & Rozencwajg…
President Biden learned how difficult it can be to cajole America’s frackers. Producers drastically cut production after the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic gutted global demand. But fuel prices soared when economies reopened, and production levels didn’t bounce back. After promising to move the country away from fossil fuels, Biden implored drillers to ramp up, with limited success.
The 2022 energy shock from Russia’s war on Ukraine further highlighted the White House’s limited sway over global markets.
Trump has warned that Vice President Kamala Harris would curb oil and gas production. The Democratic nominee previously backed a fracking ban on federal lands but said in a CNN interview in August, “As president, I will not ban fracking.”
Oil-and-gas producers have successfully bolstered their stock prices by funneling more cash into dividends and share buybacks—not new drilling. Photo: Justin Hamel for WSJ
A spokeswoman for Harris said she would continue implementing Democrats’ 2022 climate law, the Inflation Reduction Act, but offered no new proposals for cutting Americans’ energy bills.
Following price crashes in 2016 and 2020, oil-and-gas producers have successfully bolstered their stock prices by funneling more cash into dividends and share buybacks—not new drilling.
At least 63% of the industry’s cash outflows went toward capital expenditures in each of the eight quarters before the bottom of the 2016 collapse, according to an Evaluate Energy analysis of 46 publicly listed producers. Over the past eight quarters, that figure topped out at 49%.
U.S. oil production eventually reached record levels under President Biden, surpassing 13 million barrels a day this year. But production levels are increasing at a slower rate, and most oil executives say rapid growth is over.
Electric woes
Around 13% of U.S. households are behind on their energy bills, according to the National Energy Assistance Directors Association, which comprises state officials that administer federal energy aid to low-income Americans. The group estimates that 3.8 million families will have their electric or gas service disconnected this year, up from 3.5 million last year.
While making homes more efficient and resilient to weather could bring down household costs in the future, there are no quick fixes, said Mark Wolfe, executive director of the organization.
Fuel prices soared when economies reopened following Covid-19 lockdowns. Photo: Eric Thayer/Bloomberg News
Trump has said he would ease Biden-era rules on fossil-fuel-fired power plants but has provided few details on his plans for power prices.
The president has little influence on electricity costs, which are sensitive to the price of natural gas and regional differences in power generation.
Though natural-gas prices have remained low—and wind and solar power are expanding—consumers also pay delivery charges that cover the cost of moving electrons across America’s aging system of wires and poles. Those charges are likely to increase to pay for long-overdue upgrades.
In many states, demand for electricity is rising because of new data centers, manufacturing growth and a move to electric vehicles and building heat. New power generation is needed, and utilities and grid operators are seeking to keep older, reliable generation available, too.
“By the time it’s said and done, you get the bill at the end of the month, and it’s going up,” said Vince Duane, principal at Copper Monarch and former general counsel at PJM Interconnection, the country’s largest power grid operator.
Long-term impact
Many of Trump’s energy proposals are on the wish list of the oil-and-gas industry, and his agenda has helped attract millions in donations from oil tycoons. Trump has promised to make deep cuts at environmental agencies and issue faster permits and leases for drilling on federal lands, along with streamlined approvals for pipelines.
If he is elected, do you think the former president will make good on his promise of more drilling? Join the conversation below.
That push for immediacy would contend with yearslong timelines for major projects, but a Trump administration could shape the long-term outlook for fossil fuels, say analysts. One area where presidents can make a direct—but not immediate—impact is through tax incentives and setting efficiency standards for cars or appliances such as dishwashers, which could lower energy costs.
Trump has said he might cut subsidies for electric vehicles and loosen emissions standards for cars. That could grow future oil demand, though critics say it would lead to an increase in greenhouse-gas emissions.
Solar Eclipses And The Midnight Sun... Is Solar Energy Really Our Solution?
Batteries – California draws more electricity from the sun than any other state. It also has a timing problem: Solar power is plentiful during the day but disappears by evening, just as people get home from work and electricity demand spikes. To fill the gap, power companies typically burn more fossil fuels like natural gas.
That’s now changing. Since 2020, California has installed more giant batteries than anywhere in the world apart from China. They can soak up excess solar power during the day and store it for use when it gets dark.
Those batteries play a pivotal role in California’s electric grid, partially replacing fossil fuels in the evening. Between 7 p.m. and 10 p.m. on April 30, for example, batteries supplied more than one-fifth of California’s electricity and, for a few minutes, pumped out 7,046 megawatts of electricity, akin to the output from seven large nuclear reactors.
Across the country, power companies are increasingly using giant batteries the size of shipping containers to address renewable energy’s biggest weakness: the fact that the wind and sun aren’t always available.
Image by Germán & Co “Solar Power Won't Save Us…
Daniel Quiggin holds the position of senior researcher at the Chatham House Centre for Environment and Society, where his research primarily concentrates on the analysis of the evolution of national and global energy systems projected through the year 2050. On August 24, he published an article in The New York Times entitled "Solar Power Won't Save Us," which critically assesses the future prospects for solar energy. Additionally, in 2015, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) released a comprehensive study titled "The Future Of Solar Energy," which offers an extensive analysis of the potential of solar energy, particularly about battery storage solutions. Both publications significantly enhance our understanding of the future trajectory of this essential energy source.
The Future of Solar Energy?
MIT STUDY ON THE FUTURE OF SOLAR ENERGY“The Future of Solar Energy considers only the two widely recognized classes of technologies for converting solar energy into electricity — photovoltaics (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP), sometimes called solar thermal) — in their current and plausible future forms. Because energy supply facilities typically last several decades, technologies in these classes will dominate solar-powered generation between now and 2050, and we do not attempt to look beyond that date. In contrast to some earlier Future of studies, we also present no forecasts — for two reasons. First, expanding the solar industry dramatically from its relatively tiny current scale may produce changes we do not pretend to be able to foresee today. Second, we recognize that future solar deployment will depend heavily on uncertain future market conditions and public policies — including but not limited to policies aimed at mitigating global climate change.
As in other studies in this series, our primary aim is to inform decision-makers in the developed world, particularly the United States. We concentrate on the use of grid-connected solar-powered generators to replace conventional sources of electricity. For the more than one billion people in the developing world who lack access to a reliable electric grid, the cost of small-scale PV generation is often outweighed by the very high value of access to electricity for lighting and charging mobile telephone and radio batteries. In addition, in some developing nations it may be economic to use solar generation to reduce reliance on imported oil, particularly if that oil must be moved by truck to remote generator sites. A companion working paper discusses both these valuable roles for solar energy in the developing world…
https://energy.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/MITEI-The-Future-of-Solar-Energy-Executive-Summary.pdfIn December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central
Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...
In a world that's constantly growing and grappling with inflation, the art of blogging faces its fair share of hurdles. To keep our content top-notch during these challenging times, we've poured resources into top-tier software, licenses, and stunning copyrighted images, among other essentials. But fear not, we're not navigating this journey alone! Just last week on "X," actions like "liking" or "retweeting" have become your secret weapons—free and private, thanks to "Musk" your support through these simple yet impactful gestures is not just a token of appreciation but a significant contribution that shapes our journey!
If you're feeling motivated to make a difference, consider extending your generosity through PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com, or by using our IBAN account: SE18 3000 0000 0058 0511 2611. Alternatively, you can effortlessly support our blog with a secure contribution via Stripe using the donation link. Every little bit helps!
Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!
https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1830536807383027908Thank you for your kind contributions…
Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…
Andrés Gluski, CEO of AES Corporation, advocates for the energy transition, highlighting the importance of renewable energy and energy storage for a sustainable future. He believes natural gas will be essential as a transitional fuel. Gluski emphasizes the need for a comprehensive strategy that includes increasing production to lower costs and working with regulators to adopt new technologies. AES has developed large-scale battery systems and initiated demonstration projects to showcase energy storage capabilities…
Solar Power Won’t Save Us
Daniel Quiggin for The New York Times, August 24, 2024.Solar power continues to break record after record. If solar continues its current 5-year compound growth rate of 23%, then by the end of 2046, it could be supplying all our global energy demand at 2023 levels. By 2050, we could more than double our energy consumption globally and solar will still be generating more than we need.
This year, around 1 billion solar panels, and 70 billion of their constituent solar cells, will be manufactured around the world, mostly in China. It is the repetitive modular manufacturing process that has lent itself to the rapid efficiency improvements and cost reductions—90% in the last decade—underpinning solar’s near-exponential growth. In 2009, the International Energy Agency predicted total installed solar power capacity would hit 244 GW in 2030. That target was met 14 years early, in 2016, and the total today is 1,600 GW—over six times the 2030 forecast.
The modular nature of solar panels make for efficient manufacturing. But it is also ideal for small scale deployment, including on our homes. Globally, more than 25 million homes now have decentralized solar on their roofs. By 2030, this is likely to exceed 100 million, according to the IEA, though its forecasts have undersold solar before. So, could we up this forecast to 200 million, 500 million, or even 1 billion solar powered households by the end of decade?
Read More: Rooftop Solar Power Has a Dark Side
Here come the caveats. While the growth rate of deploying solar has been phenomenal, we must remember the first commercial solar farm was completed in California over 40 years ago, in 1982. In any near-exponential growth, the start of the graph always shows a long period of slow and insignificant deployment, before the growth rate bends the curve toward the vertical. In the case of solar, this period existed from the early 1980s to around 2005. It can be argued that solar didn’t reach truly disruptive deployment levels until 2015, when it first supplied more than 1% of global electricity, more than 30 years from the first solar farm in California.
You also can’t drive a solar cell to work, or fly on a magic carpet of solar panels. Other enabling technologies are needed to make solar energy useful. There are promising ones. These include electrolysers, heat pumps, and lithium-ion batteries. They can join the already-proven modular success stories of solar and wind.
The beauty of modular electrolysers is that they produce green hydrogen from electricity and water, meaning that we can utilize the electricity produced when there is too much wind or sun, and demand is low. This hydrogen from excess renewable electricity can then be used to generate electricity again when it’s cloudy and calm. It can also be stored seasonally, and utilized in industrial and agricultural processes, in future aircraft, and for powering cargo ships. Hydrogen elegantly compliments wind and solar, and electrolysers are continuing to fall in cost as more and more are produced.
As for modular heat pumps, they produce around three units of heat for every one unit of electricity input, and in 2021 a total of 190 million had been installed worldwide. Not only are they efficient, but importantly, they are also the only domestic heating source that runs on electricity.
You will now be familiar with the pattern, but let’s not leave out electric vehicles. There are around 7,000 lithium-ion battery cells in each Tesla. This highly modular technology is also rapidly falling in cost. Because electric vehicles can run on electricity from solar and wind, they are increasingly used to put power back on the grid when they are parked at home, acting as decentralized storage, known as bidirectional charging. Further, lithium-ion battery manufacturing for EVs has the spin-off effect of lowering stationary battery storage costs, again enabling the variability of solar and wind output to be smoothed.
Now for the realism. We don’t have limitless time to pursue carbon-free energy supply. Most net zero targets seek to achieve carbon neutrality over the next 25 years, or by 2050. More importantly, we are likely to pass 1.5C of warming, the Paris Agreement threshold target we are globally seeking to prevent breaching, by 2030. And it is at this 1.5C threshold that climatic feedbacks could kick in and lead to runaway climate change.
Nor do we have limitless money. Selecting the modular technologies that are synergetic and support each other is probably the best way to derive the most low-carbon energy, and decarbonize as quickly as we can, as cheaply as we can. But we don’t have 30 years to wait for these technologies to reach the truly disruptive deployment levels of solar only seen in recent years.
This is where we are going to also need to consider limiting demand, to meet the future constrained decarbonized supply. People will still be able to fly, and drive their non-EV car, but perhaps a little less often, until these technologies have had time to move along the growth curve. As climate change impacts increase in frequency and severity, this reality of carefully picking technology winners, backing them with more investment, and limiting demand, is highly likely to be the only option left.
Battery Storage: A Revolution in the New Era Of The Energy Market…
Batteries – California draws more electricity from the sun than any other state. It also has a timing problem: Solar power is plentiful during the day but disappears by evening, just as people get home from work and electricity demand spikes. To fill the gap, power companies typically burn more fossil fuels like natural gas.
That’s now changing. Since 2020, California has installed more giant batteries than anywhere in the world apart from China. They can soak up excess solar power during the day and store it for use when it gets dark.
Those batteries play a pivotal role in California’s electric grid, partially replacing fossil fuels in the evening. Between 7 p.m. and 10 p.m. on April 30, for example, batteries supplied more than one-fifth of California’s electricity and, for a few minutes, pumped out 7,046 megawatts of electricity, akin to the output from seven large nuclear reactors.
Across the country, power companies are increasingly using giant batteries the size of shipping containers to address renewable energy’s biggest weakness: the fact that the wind and sun aren’t always available.
Image by Germán & Co 
Image: Media...
We wish everyone a happy Monday!
Ah, batteries – we have always had a love-hate relationship with them!
“Giant Batteries Are Transforming the Way the U.S. Uses Electricity
They’re delivering solar power after dark in California and helping to stabilize grids in other states. And the technology is expanding rapidly…
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/05/07/climate/battery-electricity-solar-california-texas.html?searchResultPosition=1On the one hand, as they power cherished toys, batteries bring pure joy to children. Elderly adults' hearts are filled with nostalgia as batteries enable them to listen closely to familiar melodies on their transistor radios. On the other hand, a dead car battery can disrupt a family's plans, leading to a whirlwind of frustration. Ah, those are enchanting times from another world!
There are also heart-stopping moments when the light bulb starts to flicker, casting ominous shadows and plunging us into unexpected darkness. The desperate cries echo: "Mum, the lights are out!" or "Where's the torch?" or "Dad, we can't just buy another fridge to keep the lights on!"
Explaining the latest electrical outburst to consumers, especially regarding power factors, can be challenging. After all, an innocent question about a big refrigerator's power consumption could be the key! Large batteries are the unsung heroes of the renewable energy revolution, transforming the energy sector and steering it towards greener practices.
The rapidly expanding battery sector is primarily associated with electric vehicles. However, large-scale energy storage solutions significantly contribute to its growth. The market for "powerhouses", which can provide power to towns and cities, more than doubled last year.
Battery storage is crucial for decarbonising the energy sector, as it facilitates the integration of renewable energy sources and reduces dependence on fossil fuels. Unfortunately, this remarkable technology still struggles to get the media attention it deserves, leaving many unaware of its importance in our modern world. Batteries help balance supply and demand by storing surplus energy produced during low-demand periods and releasing it during peak times. This process helps stabilise the grid and prevent blackouts. Additionally, batteries facilitate the integration of renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind, which are not always available. By storing excess energy generated during sunny or windy conditions, batteries ensure that this energy can be utilised even during periods of low production. Additionally, batteries enhance grid stability and reliability by providing essential services, such as frequency regulation and voltage support, meaning we can forget about flickering bulbs.
One of the vital affordable advantages of battery storage systems is their versatility. They can be implemented at various scales, ranging from small residential units to extensive grid-scale facilities, making them adaptable to diverse requirements. This adaptability reassures us that renewable energy solutions can be flexible and scalable to meet our energy needs.
While wind and solar energy costs have significantly decreased over the past decade, the challenge remains in managing their inconsistent supply—ensuring power availability when the sun is not shining and the wind is not blowing. Batteries offer a viable solution by efficiently storing and delivering energy. As the installation of wind turbines and solar panels increases, particularly in China, the demand for energy storage is set to increase. In Germany, Fluence Energy, in partnership with TransnetBW, is developing the Netzbooster project. The initiative will become the world's largest battery-based energy storage-as-transmission project and is anticipated to be completed by 2025.
India is also aggressively developing energy storage technologies in its electric system, a crucial aspect of the emerging affordable climate and energy market. This global effort makes us feel part of a collective movement towards a sustainable future.
In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central
Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...
In a world that's constantly growing and grappling with inflation, the art of blogging faces its fair share of hurdles. To keep our content top-notch during these challenging times, we've poured resources into top-tier software, licenses, and stunning copyrighted images, among other essentials. But fear not, we're not navigating this journey alone! Just last week on "X," actions like "liking" or "retweeting" have become your secret weapons—free and private, thanks to "Musk" your support through these simple yet impactful gestures is not just a token of appreciation but a significant contribution that shapes our journey!
If you're feeling motivated to make a difference, consider extending your generosity through PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com, or by using our IBAN account: SE18 3000 0000 0058 0511 2611. Alternatively, you can effortlessly support our blog with a secure contribution via Stripe using the donation link. Every little bit helps!
Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!
https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1830536807383027908Thank you for your kind contributions…
Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…
Andrés Gluski, CEO of AES Corporation, advocates for the energy transition, highlighting the importance of renewable energy and energy storage for a sustainable future. He believes natural gas will be essential as a transitional fuel. Gluski emphasizes the need for a comprehensive strategy that includes increasing production to lower costs and working with regulators to adopt new technologies. AES has developed large-scale battery systems and initiated demonstration projects to showcase energy storage capabilities…
Image: Fluence's first complete product ecosystem BESS project in Australia. The photography is courtesy of Fluence.
Australia: Energy storage to mitigate fears over grid reliability from 2027
Authored by George Heynes, the article dated August 30, 2024, covers Grid Scale, Connected Technologies, and Market Analysis in Asia & Oceania, including Southeast Asia & Oceania.The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has said that despite concerns about grid reliability in 2027-28, following the closure of the 2.8GWh Eraring coal-fired power station in New South Wales, energy storage will help alleviate the pressure.
Detailed within its 2024 Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) report, which provides a 10-year outlook of investment requirements to maintain reliability for the National Electricity Market (NEM), energy storage projects such as the 1.6GWh Orana BESS and the 2.2GWh Richmond Valley BESS, alongside the HumeLink transmission project, will partially mitigate some of the risk.
The report also details that 3.9GW/13.5GWh of BESS has been connected to the NEM in the past 12 months, trumping other technologies. Large-scale solar PV, on the other hand, saw 1.2GW connected.
In early 2022, Origin Energy, the power station’s owner, said it would be retiring the coal-fired power plant in 2025, yet in May 2024, the New South Wales government controversially extended this by an additional two years to “guarantee a maximum of electricity supply”. The new expected closure date is scheduled for August 2027.
At the time, AEMO stated that, without Eraring, New South Wales would face energy reliability risks from 2025, instead of the predicted 2027-2028 forecast now. As such, the state government is subsidising the power station to ensure it can remain operational.
Although the decision remains controversial, global market research organisation Cornwall Insight revealed that extending Eraring’s service will cut New South Wales’ power prices by 44%, dropping from a predicted AU$153/MWh (US$104/MWh) to AU$86/MWh in 2026. However, question marks remain over the power station’s use and impact on New South Wales and Australia’s climate goals.
It is worth noting that Origin Energy is in the process of developing two BESS at Eraring. Stage 1 of the project saw a 460MW/1073MWh 2-hour duration BESS being constructed, with a new additional 240MW/1030MWh grid-forming BESS having been approved late last month (25 July).
Russia warns Europe of higher gas prices if Ukraine cancels its transit agreement…
Russia has issued a warning that Europe could face increased gas prices...
Russia has issued a cautionary statement to Europe regarding the potential for increased gas prices should Ukraine decide to terminate its transit agreement. On August 29, Dmitry Peskov, the spokesperson for the Kremlin, emphasized the significant repercussions that could arise from such a decision, particularly for European consumers who depend on Russian gas. He noted that this could lead to heightened costs for alternative energy sources, including liquefied natural gas from the United States.
The economic and political implications of Ukraine's role in gas transit are complex. In 2021, Kyiv earned approximately $1 billion (€0.92 billion) in transit fees from Russian gas. However, the ongoing conflict has resulted in diminished gas deliveries to Europe, reducing this revenue to around $700 million annually. Given the current low volumes of gas, Ukraine's profitability in this sector is unattainable, as the majority of these fees are allocated to operational expenses, such as pipeline maintenance. Consequently, any new agreement would need to significantly increase gas deliveries to assist Ukraine in overcoming its financial challenges. Without a renewed transit deal that involves substantial volumes, Ukraine is unlikely to achieve profitability. Politically, the transit role serves as a strategic asset for Ukraine in its negotiations with both Russia and the European Union, particularly in light of the cessation of the Nord Stream 2 project.
According to reports from Russian state news agencies, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated, as conveyed by Deutsche Welle on July 16 of this year, that the continuation of transit through Ukraine is dependent on the regulations established by Ukraine and its willingness to facilitate such transit. He further asserted that Russia stands ready to supply the necessary gas.
Image by Germán & Co “Today, Dmitry Peskov, the spokesperson for the Kremlin, issued a significant warning regarding the potential consequences of terminating the transit agreement. He indicated that such a decision could adversely affect European consumers reliant on Russian gas, potentially resulting in increased costs for alternative energy sources, including liquefied natural gas from the United States…
Image: Nord Stream after the explosion by Germán & Co via Shutterstock
The economic and political profitability of Ukraine's gas transit role is multifaceted.
In 2021, Kyiv generated approximately $1 billion (€0.92 billion) in transit fees from Russian gas. However, the war has led to reduced deliveries to Europe, decreasing this revenue to about $700 million per year. With such minimal gas volumes, profitability for Ukraine is not achievable. The majority of these fees are allocated to operational costs, including pipeline maintenance. Therefore, any new agreement must substantially boost gas deliveries to help Kyiv overcome its financial hurdles. Without a renewed transit deal involving high volumes, Ukraine will not realize any profit. In the realm of politics, the transit role serves as a strategic asset for Ukraine in its dealings with both Russia and the European Union, especially now that Nord Stream 2 has been taken off the table.
“According to Russian state news agencies, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated, as reported by Deutsche Welle on July 16 of this year, that transit through Ukraine is contingent upon Ukraine's established regulations and their willingness to permit it. He further indicated that Russia is prepared to provide the necessary supplies.
In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central
Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...
In a world that's constantly growing and grappling with inflation, the art of blogging faces its fair share of hurdles. To keep our content top-notch during these challenging times, we've poured resources into top-tier software, licenses, and stunning copyrighted images, among other essentials. But fear not, we're not navigating this journey alone! Just last week on "X," actions like "liking" or "retweeting" have become your secret weapons—free and private, thanks to "Musk" your support through these simple yet impactful gestures is not just a token of appreciation but a significant contribution that shapes our journey!
If you're feeling motivated to make a difference, consider extending your generosity through PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com, or by using our IBAN account: SE18 3000 0000 0058 0511 2611. Alternatively, you can effortlessly support our blog with a secure contribution via Stripe using the donation link. Every little bit helps!
Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!
https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1829120149841944860Thank you for your kind contributions…
Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…
“Andrés Gluski, the CEO of the AES Corporation, has emphasized the ongoing importance of natural gas as a critical bridge fuel for the next 25 years. He emphasized that although the shift towards renewable energy is gaining pace, natural gas will still play a crucial role in fulfilling global energy needs until more accessible and economical low-carbon technologies emerge…
Image by Carnegie Politika
What would the non-renewal of the Ukraine-Russia transit contract mean for the global natural gas market?
The Final Countdown: Will Russia and Ukraine Renew Gas Transit Deal?
Extending the transport of Russian gas via Ukraine after 2024 would likely benefit both Russia and Ukraine. Stopping the flow of gas, on the other hand, would be painful for whichever side initiates it.
Carnegie PolitiKa by Sergey Vakulenko, Published on February 15, 2024“Carnegie Politika is a digital publication that features unmatched analysis and insight on Russia, Ukraine and the wider region. For nearly a decade, Carnegie Politika has published contributions from members of Carnegie’s global network of scholars and well-known outside contributors and has helped drive important strategic conversations and policy debates.
At the end of 2024, a five-year agreement expires governing one of the oldest and biggest economic links between Russia and Europe: the transit of Russian gas through the territory of Ukraine. Kyiv has already said it will not extend the agreement, and Russian officials have confirmed no negotiations to that end are under way with either Ukraine or the EU. Still, that’s not to say that no more Russian gas will ever be shipped via Ukraine.
After all the upheaval of the last two years of war, Russian gas now enters Europe via two routes, each of which carries about 14 billion cubic meters of gas per year. The first is via the TurkStream pipeline and its extension, Balkan Stream, under the Black Sea to Turkey, Bulgaria, Serbia, and Hungary. The second route is a corridor through Ukraine to Slovakia.
The main buyers of Russian gas are Slovakia, Hungary, Austria, and Italy, whose current governments are guided by pragmatism in their foreign policy. Russian gas prices are now much more closely linked to European exchange prices than they were in the last decade, but still work out cheaper than liquefied natural gas (LNG), especially during price surges. Accordingly, some countries are reluctant to stop buying Russian gas entirely, though they have all signed up to the REPowerEU program, which envisages that Russian gas will be fully phased out by 2027.
Ukraine has already said it will not renew the transit agreement with Russia when it expires at the end of this year. European Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson told reporters at the end of last year that the working scenario does not factor in those supplies. The Austrian company OMV said it was prepared to keep buying Russian gas, but at the same time reserved capacity in pipelines and at LNG receiving terminals that will enable it to manage without it.
Austria and Italy will be the least impacted by an end to Russian gas supplies. Austria will always have other options because multiple pipelines intersect on its territory. Italy also has other alternatives (albeit more expensive ones), since it gets gas from both Algeria and Azerbaijan via pipelines, and through several LNG terminals on its territory.
It’s a little more complicated for Hungary, but it could obtain Russian gas via TurkStream. Slovakia, on the other hand, has hardly any alternatives. It would need to organize a reverse flow from the Austrian hub, or receive gas through small German LNG terminals. Slovakia will also find itself furthest along the supply route, so its opportunities to procure gas will depend on whether Austria, Hungary, and the Czech Republic have enough for themselves.
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has suggested that instead of OGTSU (Ukrainian gas pipeline operator) signing a transportation contract with Russia, European companies could sign them, meaning the latter would effectively purchase gas on the Russia-Ukraine border and then task Ukraine with transporting that gas.
If Ukraine sticks to its guns and does stop transporting Russian gas through its territory, the transit system operator could declare sections of pipeline or other infrastructure decommissioned. But if they are considered operational, then European companies could book transport capacity on a daily, monthly, or yearly basis—just as they do when arranging the delivery of gas from the LNG terminal in Belgium to their domestic markets.
There are certain benefits for Ukraine in continuing to transport Russian gas. Mechanisms best described as “virtual reverse” and “virtual transportation” enabled Ukraine to maintain physical supplies of gas even when it stopped buying gas from Gazprom and switched to purchases from European traders. Even now, when Ukraine consumes significantly less gas due to being at war, and its own deposits are almost enough for its needs, this system is useful.
The issue is that gas extraction and consumption centers are not always located where they need to be, and this is where the virtual transportation comes in. Now, even the process of transporting gas from Ukrainian fields to Ukrainian consumers is effectively a virtual one: it is Russian gas that is sent to some areas (especially in the southern part of the country), while Ukrainian gas goes into the Slovak gas transportation system. Without an external supply of gas from Russia, Ukraine would have to modify its pipeline system and run it differently.
The situation will become even more complicated if the Ukrainian economy recovers and demand for gas grows. With no Russian gas flowing through the country, Ukraine would have to buy gas from Austria, pay for its transit through Slovakia, and then organize its delivery from the western border to the center of the country where consumption is concentrated. At the same European gas exchange price that Ukraine currently pays, physically reversing the flow would cost $30–40 more per 1,000 cubic meters than it does under a virtual reverse.
In 2022, Ukraine began providing large-scale gas storage facilities in the west of the country to EU countries, and plans to keep doing so. But that business also depends to a large extent on virtual reverse and swap operations: on the ability to buy gas at Austria’s Baumgarten hub and transport it virtually to Ukrainian storage facilities free of charge. Without any Russian gas transit, such operations will be more difficult and costly.
Russia, too, would take a hit—primarily financial—if it could no longer transport its gas via Ukraine. There are no equivalent alternative markets for the Yamal gas currently sold to Europe, and that will not change significantly, even with the construction of the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline to China (no earlier than 2030) and an LNG plant on the Baltic Sea (currently planned for 2026–2027). The combined capacity of those two new projects is approximately half of the volume by which supplies to Europe have already decreased.
According to Gazprom CFO Famil Sadygov, the state-owned gas giant’s 2023 revenues from gas sales at home and abroad amounted to about $48 billion. Losing about $7–8 billion per year in export revenues for 15 billion cubic meters of gas would therefore mean a loss of 15 percent of revenue, or more than half of Gazprom’s gas business EBITDA (excluding the company’s share in Gazprom Neft).
The second problem for Gazprom is the threat of claims for financial damages from its European customers. Some of the company’s long-term contracts with EU countries are valid through 2040, and the inability to deliver that gas due to an issue with a transport company is the supplier’s problem. If Kyiv bans the transportation of Russian gas, that will be considered a force majeure, which might relieve Gazprom from its delivery obligations. But if the Ukrainian gas transit system operator simply shuts down the border metering station, declares the route closed, and stops accepting gas from the Russian side, it will be a different story.
Another consideration affecting Russia as a whole is that payment for Russian gas is made by EU companies via Gazprombank. That means that neither the bank nor Gazprom itself will be subject to full blocking sanctions while the deal is in effect.
While it may be difficult right now to look ahead to the restoration of relations after the war, it is worth noting that it is much easier to return to previous volumes from a reduced level under a current contract than to restore ties that had been completely severed and enter into new contracts. At the same time, for Russia, Ukraine, and Europe, the flow of Russian gas and the ability to stop it is one of the few remaining steps on the escalation ladder.
In purely pragmatic terms, therefore, the continuation of gas transit after the end of 2024 is likely to be beneficial for both Russia and Ukraine. For European countries that continue to purchase Russian gas, the advantages are also clear.
The situation may change in 2026–2027, when significant new volumes of LNG from the United States and Qatar are due to enter the market. It’s possible that supply growth will outstrip demand growth, causing LNG prices to drop considerably. Accordingly, it will become less expensive for EU countries to go without Russian gas, and political pressure will increase as the deadlines laid out under REPowerEU approach.
There are still many unknowns in this equation, however. In Washington, the Biden administration has announced a pause on granting new LNG projects the right to export to countries that do not have a free trade agreement with the United States. While that will not affect the market balance in 2026, it may cause European buyers to question the reliability and inexhaustibility of U.S. LNG supplies, and persuade them to maintain alternative options, including Russia.
"The monumental energy scam of the century has finally been exposed!"
"The monumental energy scam of the century has finally been exposed!"
Written By Germán & Co
Zelenski threatens Europe with Russian gas…
"No one will renew the gas transit agreement with Russia," he cautions.
Recent developments reported by HuffgrinPost indicate that President Zelenski has stated, "No one will extend the gas transit agreement with Russia." This announcement aligns with an article published by (1) Global Energy Markets News on September 12, 2023, titled "Who Blew Up Nord Stream 2?" which echoes themes from a prior essay by Energy Central on August 30, entitled "The Delicate Balancing Act of Political Reckoning: The Unpredictable Consequences of Delicate Political Matters." The latter article concluded that a thorough investigation had identified individuals likely responsible for sabotaging this critical energy infrastructure, which had previously enabled the transportation of natural gas from Russia to Europe via the Baltic Sea.
The Nord Stream 2 pipeline, a project valued at $11 billion, received partial funding from notable entities such as British oil and gas company Shell, Austria's OMV, France's Engie, and Germany's Uniper and Wintershall DEA. This vital infrastructure was destroyed in seconds on September 26, 2023. Furthermore, on the 16th of this month, the Spanish newspaper ABC confirmed that President Zelenski had authorized the exploitation of the strategic gas pipeline, shedding light on the motivations behind this act.
In light of these recent developments from Kyiv, questions arise regarding the future of the natural gas market in Europe and the accountability for damages incurred by European investors and pipeline owners.
As we continue to explore the geopolitical dynamics of the energy sector, we are grateful to have you, our readers, accompany us on this journey. Your insights and contributions have been invaluable to our understanding of these intricate issues, and we appreciate your ongoing support. Thank you.
https://www.huffingtonpost.es/global/zelenski-amenaza-europa-gas-ruso.htmlhttps://wognews.net/news/2023/9/who-blew-up-nord-stream-2Image by Germán & Co Zelenski threatens Europe with Russian gas…
"No one will renew the gas transit agreement with Russia," he cautions.
https://www.huffingtonpost.es/global/zelenski-amenaza-europa-gas-ruso.htmlArtwork created by Germán & Co
Recent developments reported by HuffgrinPost indicate that President Zelenski has stated, "No one will extend the gas transit agreement with Russia." This announcement aligns with an article published by (1) Global Energy Markets News on September 12, 2023, titled "Who Blew Up Nord Stream 2?" which echoes themes from a prior essay by Energy Central on August 30, entitled "The Delicate Balancing Act of Political Reckoning: The Unpredictable Consequences of Delicate Political Matters." The latter article concluded that a thorough investigation had identified individuals likely responsible for sabotaging this critical energy infrastructure, which had previously enabled the transportation of natural gas from Russia to Europe via the Baltic Sea.
The Nord Stream 2 pipeline, a project valued at $11 billion, received partial funding from notable entities such as British oil and gas company Shell, Austria's OMV, France's Engie, and Germany's Uniper and Wintershall DEA. This vital infrastructure was destroyed in seconds on September 26, 2023. Furthermore, on the 16th of this month, the Spanish newspaper ABC confirmed that President Zelenski had authorized the exploitation of the strategic gas pipeline, shedding light on the motivations behind this act.
In light of these recent developments from Kyiv, questions arise regarding the future of the natural gas market in Europe and the accountability for damages incurred by European investors and pipeline owners.
As we continue to explore the geopolitical dynamics of the energy sector, we are grateful to have you, our readers, accompany us on this journey. Your insights and contributions have been invaluable to our understanding of these intricate issues, and we appreciate your ongoing support. Thank you.
https://wognews.net/news/2023/9/who-blew-up-nord-stream-2In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central
Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...
In a world that's constantly growing and grappling with inflation, the art of blogging faces its fair share of hurdles. To keep our content top-notch during these challenging times, we've poured resources into top-tier software, licenses, and stunning copyrighted images, among other essentials. But fear not, we're not navigating this journey alone! Just last week on "X," actions like "liking" or "retweeting" have become your secret weapons—free and private, thanks to "Musk" your support through these simple yet impactful gestures is not just a token of appreciation but a significant contribution that shapes our journey!
If you're feeling motivated to make a difference, consider extending your generosity through PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com, or by using our IBAN account: SE18 3000 0000 0058 0511 2611. Alternatively, you can effortlessly support our blog with a secure contribution via Stripe using the donation link. Every little bit helps!
Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!
https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1828811485146992731Thank you for your kind contributions…
Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…
If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.
Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.
Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.
(FA) The Case for a Clean Energy Marshall Plan…
HE PERILS OF PUTTING ALL YOUR EGGS IN ONE BASKET...
In our interconnected global network, recognizing the dangers of over-reliance on a single entity, be it a tool, resource, or individual, is crucial. Such dependency can lead to vulnerabilities, threatening both stability and productivity. To steer clear of these dangers, a balanced approach that promotes diversification and autonomy is essential. This philosophy is fundamental in reducing risks and bolstering resilience across different sectors, and it is the cornerstone of our suggested policy.
The United States is on the cusp of an extraordinary shift, poised to excel in the realm of clean energy. To support this transition, we propose the creation of a Clean Energy Resilience Authority. This key institution would play a vital role in strengthening our supply chains as we move towards more sustainable energy sources. By encouraging manufacturing in developing economies and enhancing our own production capabilities, we strive to develop a diverse network of supply chains that are not reliant on any single country and are robust enough to handle critical shortages. Presently, China dominates with 60% of the world's rare-earth mining output and approximately 90% of its processing and refining capacities—a concentration we intend to challenge.
To avoid replacing one dependency with another, such as substituting foreign oil with a heavy reliance on Chinese critical minerals, the United States should lead a coalition to ensure access to these vital processed minerals. Contrary to what their name suggests, 'rare-earth minerals' are abundant and widely distributed around the world. Notably, 80% of the planet's lithium reserves, 66% of nickel reserves, and 50% of copper reserves are located within democratic countries. This is a sharp contrast to the 80% of oil reserves under the control of OPEC nations, many ruled by authoritarian governments. The U.S. must assert leadership to guarantee global energy security.
Biological weapons are considered worse than nuclear weapons…
One, two, three, four... oh, the joy that fills the hearts of mothers and fathers when our little ones embrace the magic of learning! It is the little milestones that bring us the greatest delight.
We recently had the opportunity to engage with a thought-provoking (1) YouTube video by the esteemed Mr Juan Ignacio Rubiolo, the AES executive vice president and president of energy infrastructure. The video addresses three fundamental themes: "Nurture your body, cherish your relationships, and watch your ambitions."
Embracing these fundamental principles for achieving a balanced life should ostensibly be straightforward; however, their significance often requires further exploration. We sincerely thank Mr Rubiolo for elucidating these essential tenets to our benefit.
Let us take a moment to reflect on the concept of ambition. Yesterday, we were presented with an engaging reflection by ManyMangoes from Dubai. "The stark contrast between America's polished ideals and the persistent violence is truly eye-opening. What can the nation's leaders do to bridge this divide and foster a sense of unity?" The inquiry follows an article titled "America's Fossil Fuel Boom Risks Bust in Europe," authored by Gabriel Gavin and Ben Lefebvre and published in POLITICO EU on July 19, 2024. The article explores the potential repercussions of the United States' fossil fuel agreements with Europe, particularly as the European Union seeks to reduce its reliance on this energy source.
Let's explore a potentially invaluable insight. From an anthropological perspective, the conclusion is evident: we, the so-called humans, are responsible for the chaos in which we currently find ourselves. Our insatiable desire for more has always come at a cost, where one gain inevitably necessitates the sacrifice of another.
Indeed, we should only observe the events unfolding today as Russia is embroiled in a brutal conflict with Ukraine while Israel is experiencing retaliatory attacks from Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran, resulting in widespread devastation.
Today, the answer to ManyMangoes, whether fortunate or unfortunate, is that the only viable solution is a second Yalta Conference that includes China.
Let's not overlook the unsettling quirks in the psyche of specific individuals, which can lead to moral missteps and complicate our ability to coexist in ways we never thought possible. Indeed, our journey through life is a tapestry of intricate challenges, often ignited by unforeseen turmoil. Insightful authors have long anticipated the waves of chaos and political strife that would continuously shape our existence.
The Biological Weapons Convention has faced significant shortcomings, particularly in its inability to prevent private entities and individuals from engaging in the nefarious activities associated with biological weaponry. For example, in 1984, the Rajneesh cult in Oregon infamously contaminated salad bars with salmonella in an attempt to incapacitate rival voters and secure electoral victories for their candidates in Wasco County. Fortunately, no lives were lost, but hundreds of individuals fell ill. Fast forward to 1995, and the doomsday cult Aum Shinrikyo unleashed chaos in Tokyo using the nerve agent sarin, having previously attempted – albeit unsuccessfully – to develop anthrax weapons. The situation escalated further with the chilling anthrax attacks that resulted in five tragic deaths in the United States in 2001. The attacks targeted journalists and Senate offices and were believed to be the work of a solitary American scientist.
On November 17, 2019, the world was introduced to the SARS-CoV-2 virus in Wuhan, China – a simple yet formidable organism composed of proteins and nucleic acids, capable of replicating only within living cells, as defined by the Royal Spanish Academy. This minuscule entity has brought about perhaps the most profound transformation in our emotional landscape. It has instilled a deep-seated paranoia, cruelly reminding us that the warmth of human connection – handshakes, hugs, and genuine affection – has been supplanted by faceless digital interactions, flowing endlessly in a virtual sea and devoid of the comforting touch that nourishes the soul. How many loved ones are now absent from our lives, all due to a supposed human error in a distant laboratory in ancient Wuhan?
The repercussions of these new living conditions extend beyond our emotional well-being; they have also disrupted various industries. Humanity's enforced confinement hindered the flow of raw materials and components essential for production, leaving the supply chain in disarray and jeopardising our basic needs.
The scarcity of essential goods and soaring international shipping costs have unleashed the venom of inflation. From January 2020 to December 2021, global cumulative inflation surged from 1.9% to an astonishing 3.5%, nearly doubling in one year, with projections approaching 7% by the end of the period, according to World Bank data. Inflation has tripled over three years, creating a financial tempest that no national economy or household budget can endure.
On August 24, 2024, the Spanish newspaper El País published an article titled "From Fighting Inflation to Avoiding Recession: Monetary Policy Changes Its Focus." Miguel Jiménez, writing the article from Chicago, discusses how the Jackson Hole Symposium confirms that central banks are shifting focus from controlling prices to prioritising employment and economic activity to pursue an elusive soft landing.
This blog has addressed this topic over the past year due to the rise of atypical inflation. The shortage of raw materials, components, and spare parts – exacerbated by ongoing conflicts, and, to a lesser extent, piracy – along with the economic measures implemented by central banks, including interest rate hikes, have done little to mitigate inflation. A consensus exists about urgently needed interest rate cuts to prevent a recession. Ultimately, the only viable solution is to urgently pursue concessions and end the conflict.
(2) Biological weapons are considered worse than nuclear weapons…
The clock is ticking, and decisive action is crucial; the alternative could be disastrous. Should a lab-engineered or enhanced pathogen be released, the fallout could be dire. Certain man-made germs have the potential to wreak havoc far exceeding that of the novel coronavirus, leading to an overwhelming loss of life and economic chaos. In the worst-case scenarios, the global death toll could eclipse the tragedy of the Black Death, which eliminated one-third of Europe's population.
We should express our sincere thanks to Mr Rubiolo for shedding light on the three fundamental pillars of harmonious living. Our thanks also go to ManyMangoes for starting this vital conversation on promoting peace in our world. Thank you!
Artwork by Germán & CoHow the Fight Against Climate Change Can Renew American Leadership…
Artwork created by Germán & Co
DANGER OF RELIANCE
In our highly connected world, it's vital to be aware of the risks associated with overdependence on a single tool, resource, or person. This kind of reliance can create vulnerabilities that may undermine overall stability and efficiency. Thus, adopting a balanced approach that encourages diversification and self-reliance is key to reducing risks and bolstering resilience across different areas.
The United States is on the cusp of a transformative journey, poised for substantial growth in the clean energy sector. To support this shift, the creation of a Clean Energy Resilience Authority is proposed. This entity would play a crucial role in strengthening our supply chains during the transition to clean energy. By fostering manufacturing in developing countries and enhancing our own production, we aim to develop diverse supply chains that are independent of any single country and resilient to critical chokepoints. Presently, China dominates with 60 percent of the world's rare-earth mining output and approximately 90 percent of its processing and refining capabilities, a dominance we intend to challenge.
To prevent replacing one dependency with another—substituting foreign oil for a reliance on Chinese critical minerals—the United States should lead a coalition to secure access to processed vital minerals. Contrary to their name, "rare-earth minerals" are abundant and dispersed across various regions. Notably, 80 percent of the world's lithium reserves, 66 percent of nickel reserves, and 50 percent of copper reserves are found in democratic countries. This is in sharp contrast to the 80 percent of oil reserves held by OPEC nations, many of which are autocratic.
Currently, the United States has a significant asset: the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, an oil stockpile created in response to the 1973 oil crisis. In the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the U.S. utilized this reserve, releasing 180 million barrels to stabilize supply. As oil prices fell, the government started to refill the reserve, accruing nearly $600 million in profits for American taxpayers by May 2024. This approach has not only smoothed oil price volatility but also bolstered U.S. strategic objectives.
From the Shadows of Biological Warfare to the New Era of Bioweapons...
Artwork by Germán & Co
One, two, three, four... oh, the joy that fills the hearts of mothers and fathers when our little ones embrace the magic of learning! It is the little milestones that bring us the greatest delight.
We recently had the opportunity to engage with a thought-provoking (1) YouTube video by the esteemed Mr Juan Ignacio Rubiolo, the AES executive vice president and president of energy infrastructure. The video addresses three fundamental themes: "Nurture your body, cherish your relationships, and watch your ambitions."
Embracing these fundamental principles for achieving a balanced life should ostensibly be straightforward; however, their significance often requires further exploration. We sincerely thank Mr Rubiolo for elucidating these essential tenets to our benefit.
Let us take a moment to reflect on the concept of ambition. Yesterday, we were presented with an engaging reflection by ManyMangoes from Dubai. "The stark contrast between America's polished ideals and the persistent violence is truly eye-opening. What can the nation's leaders do to bridge this divide and foster a sense of unity?" The inquiry follows an article titled "America's Fossil Fuel Boom Risks Bust in Europe," authored by Gabriel Gavin and Ben Lefebvre and published in POLITICO EU on July 19, 2024. The article explores the potential repercussions of the United States' fossil fuel agreements with Europe, particularly as the European Union seeks to reduce its reliance on this energy source.
Let's explore a potentially invaluable insight. From an anthropological perspective, the conclusion is evident: we, the so-called humans, are responsible for the chaos in which we currently find ourselves. Our insatiable desire for more has always come at a cost, where one gain inevitably necessitates the sacrifice of another.
Indeed, we should only observe the events unfolding today as Russia is embroiled in a brutal conflict with Ukraine while Israel is experiencing retaliatory attacks from Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran, resulting in widespread devastation.
Today, the answer to ManyMangoes, whether fortunate or unfortunate, is that the only viable solution is a second Yalta Conference that includes China.
Let's not overlook the unsettling quirks in the psyche of specific individuals, which can lead to moral missteps and complicate our ability to coexist in ways we never thought possible. Indeed, our journey through life is a tapestry of intricate challenges, often ignited by unforeseen turmoil. Insightful authors have long anticipated the waves of chaos and political strife that would continuously shape our existence.
The Biological Weapons Convention has faced significant shortcomings, particularly in its inability to prevent private entities and individuals from engaging in the nefarious activities associated with biological weaponry. For example, in 1984, the Rajneesh cult in Oregon infamously contaminated salad bars with salmonella in an attempt to incapacitate rival voters and secure electoral victories for their candidates in Wasco County. Fortunately, no lives were lost, but hundreds of individuals fell ill. Fast forward to 1995, and the doomsday cult Aum Shinrikyo unleashed chaos in Tokyo using the nerve agent sarin, having previously attempted – albeit unsuccessfully – to develop anthrax weapons. The situation escalated further with the chilling anthrax attacks that resulted in five tragic deaths in the United States in 2001. The attacks targeted journalists and Senate offices and were believed to be the work of a solitary American scientist.
On November 17, 2019, the world was introduced to the SARS-CoV-2 virus in Wuhan, China – a simple yet formidable organism composed of proteins and nucleic acids, capable of replicating only within living cells, as defined by the Royal Spanish Academy. This minuscule entity has brought about perhaps the most profound transformation in our emotional landscape. It has instilled a deep-seated paranoia, cruelly reminding us that the warmth of human connection – handshakes, hugs, and genuine affection – has been supplanted by faceless digital interactions, flowing endlessly in a virtual sea and devoid of the comforting touch that nourishes the soul. How many loved ones are now absent from our lives, all due to a supposed human error in a distant laboratory in ancient Wuhan?
The repercussions of these new living conditions extend beyond our emotional well-being; they have also disrupted various industries. Humanity's enforced confinement hindered the flow of raw materials and components essential for production, leaving the supply chain in disarray and jeopardising our basic needs.
The scarcity of essential goods and soaring international shipping costs have unleashed the venom of inflation. From January 2020 to December 2021, global cumulative inflation surged from 1.9% to an astonishing 3.5%, nearly doubling in one year, with projections approaching 7% by the end of the period, according to World Bank data. Inflation has tripled over three years, creating a financial tempest that no national economy or household budget can endure.
On August 24, 2024, the Spanish newspaper El País published an article titled "From Fighting Inflation to Avoiding Recession: Monetary Policy Changes Its Focus." Miguel Jiménez, writing the article from Chicago, discusses how the Jackson Hole Symposium confirms that central banks are shifting focus from controlling prices to prioritising employment and economic activity to pursue an elusive soft landing.
This blog has addressed this topic over the past year due to the rise of atypical inflation. The shortage of raw materials, components, and spare parts – exacerbated by ongoing conflicts, and, to a lesser extent, piracy – along with the economic measures implemented by central banks, including interest rate hikes, have done little to mitigate inflation. A consensus exists about urgently needed interest rate cuts to prevent a recession. Ultimately, the only viable solution is to urgently pursue concessions and end the conflict.
(2)Biological weapons are considered worse than nuclear weapons…
The clock is ticking, and action is imperative; the alternative could spell disaster. If a lab-engineered or enhanced pathogen were to escape, the consequences could be catastrophic. Certain synthetic germs could potentially cause devastation beyond what the novel coronavirus unleashed, producing a staggering loss of life and economic turmoil. In the bleakest scenarios, we could witness a global death toll that surpasses the horrors of the Black Death, which claimed the lives of one in three individuals in Europe.
Let us extend our heartfelt gratitude to Mr Rubiolo for illuminating the three essential pillars that support a harmonious existence. We must also extend our gratitude to ManyMangoes for initiating this crucial dialogue on fostering peace in our world. Thank you!
(1) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zt-EP6CoFgg
(2) https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/new-bioweapons-covid-biology
Artwork by Germán & Co
(FA) The Case for a Clean Energy Marshall Plan…
Foreign Affairs by Brian Deese, September/October 2024.For decades, global integration—of trade, of politics, of technology—was seen as a natural law. Today, integration has been replaced by fragmentation. The post–Cold War institutions are teetering, industrial strategies are back in vogue, and competition with China is growing. These dynamics are creating geopolitical friction across global supply chains, for vehicles, minerals, computer chips, and more.
Against this backdrop, the clean energy transition remains the most important planetary challenge. It also presents the greatest economic opportunity: it will be the largest capital formation event in human history. And it presents the United States with a chance to lead. Thanks to its still unparalleled power and influence, Washington maintains a unique capacity—and a strategic imperative—to shape world outcomes.
In 2022, the United States recognized these opportunities when it passed the Inflation Reduction Act, the world’s largest-ever investment in clean energy technologies. This transformative industrial strategy was a crucial first step for the United States in positioning its economy for success by accelerating the clean energy transition at home. Now is the time to take this leadership to the global stage, in a way that promotes U.S. interests and supports aligned countries. But the United States need not create a new model for doing so.
Seventy-six years ago, also facing a fractured world order and an emerging superpower competitor, U.S. President Harry Truman and U.S. Secretary of State George Marshall launched an ambitious effort to rebuild European societies and economies. Although often associated with free-market neoliberalism, the 1948 Marshall Plan was hardly laissez-faire. It was, in fact, an industrial strategy that established the United States as a generous partner to European allies while promoting U.S. industries and interests. Generations later, the Marshall Plan is rightly understood as one of the great successes of the postwar era.
Although today’s challenges are undoubtedly different, the United States should draw lessons from that postwar period and launch a new Marshall Plan, this time for the global transition to clean energy. Just as the Marshall Plan assisted those countries most ravaged by World War II, the new Marshall Plan should aim to help countries most vulnerable to the effects of climate change: the United States’ partners in the developing world. Developing countries and emerging markets will need access to cheap capital and technology to transition away from fossil fuels quickly enough to halt global warming.
In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central
The United States again has the chance to help others while helping itself. Putting its own burgeoning industries front and center in the energy transition will generate further innovation and growth. Clean energy investment in the United States reached about 7.4 percent of private fixed investment in structures and equipment in the first quarter of this year, at $40 billion, up from $16 billion in the first quarter of 2021. Investment in emerging energy technologies—such as hydrogen power, carbon capture and storage—jumped by 1,000 percent from 2022 to 2023. Manufacturing investment in the battery supply chain went up nearly 200 percent over the same period. By creating global markets for its own clean energy industries and innovators, the United States can scale back these economic gains and strengthen domestic support for an energy shift that has not always been an easy sell to voters.
The fracturing of world order and the ominous climate crisis lead some observers to focus on the potential tensions between those two developments. But they also provide an opening for the United States to deploy its innovation and capital in a generous, pragmatic, and unapologetically pro-American way—by launching a Clean Energy Marshall Plan.
THE SINCEREST FORM OF FLATTERY
Gauzy invocations of the Marshall Plan often induce eye rolling, and with good reason. In U.S. policy circles, commentators have called for a new Marshall Plan for everything from ending global poverty to rebuilding Ukraine. The term has become shorthand for a response to any problem that mobilizes public resources to achieve an ambitious end. But this overuse has blurred the substance of what the Marshall Plan really was—and was not.
The Marshall Plan was not, as many assume, born solely out of visionary ideals of international unity after the horrors of World War II. Instead, it reflected the pragmatic constraints of a fracturing, uncertain world order. In the spring of 1947, having returned from China after a failed attempt to head off a communist takeover there, Marshall was left to grapple with the newly emerged Iron Curtain in Europe. The shifting geopolitical reality forced Truman and Marshall to consider how to exert U.S. leadership to shape the world for good—to forge peace, rebuild cities, and promote American values in the face of communism. But they clearly recognized the limits of hard power and understood that economic stability could yield geopolitical stability.
Fundamentally, the Marshall Plan was an industrial strategy that deployed public dollars to advance U.S. manufacturing and industrial capabilities in service of reconstructing Europe. Washington spent $13 billion—equivalent to $200 billion today—over four years, mostly in the form of grants to discount the European purchase of goods and services. Because U.S. companies were at the center of the program, 70 percent of European expenditures of Marshall Plan funds were used to buy products made in the United States. Italy, for example, used Marshall Plan funds to buy American drilling technology, pipes, and other industrial equipment to rebuild its energy sector—including the equipment needed to restart Europe’s first commercial geothermal plant, powered by steam from lava beds in Tuscany. By 1950, that region had more than doubled its geothermal capacity and remained a major contributor to Italy’s total power demand.
The adoption of low-cost clean energy technologies is not self-executing.
The structure of the Marshall Plan allowed it to meet Europe’s pressing needs while winning over a skeptical and war-weary American public. Because there was little appetite for providing foreign aid following World War II, Marshall and Truman centered their plan on Americans’ economic interests. The country’s industrial capabilities had grown considerably during the war, but after the war, the task was to find new markets for them. As the plan’s chief administrator, Paul Hoffman, explained, the goal was to turn Europe into a “consumer of American goods” at a time when postwar U.S. GDP had fallen precipitously and exports were imperiled by a moribund European economy. The Marshall Plan would thus help American companies and save American jobs.
To sell the plan to the public, its architects and supporters launched a public relations campaign, squarely anchoring their case in these core U.S. economic interests. In the ten months after Marshall’s June 1947 speech introducing the plan, it gained traction, securing a 75 percent public approval rating and winning over a majority of the U.S. Congress—in an election year and with a divided government to boot.
Yet even though the Marshall Plan was attuned to U.S. economic interests, its architects recognized that it was important for the United States to be a generous, reliable partner to U.S. allies. The plan helped Europe rise from the rubble, pay off its debts, refill its foreign exchange reserves, recover its industrial production and agricultural output, adopt new technologies, and build goodwill for the United States, all while reducing the appeal of communism. By filling a financing gap that no other power could, the United States cemented its transatlantic partnerships. And by supporting its own economy, it became a capable and reliable global partner.
THE CHEAPER, THE BETTER
Like the original Marshall Plan, a Clean Energy Marshall Plan should meet other countries’ development needs while advancing U.S. interests. In this case, the goal is to speed the adoption of low-cost, zero-carbon solutions, such as the manufacture of batteries, the deployment of nuclear and geothermal energy, and the processing of critical minerals. This approach reflects the basic intuition that, as useful as it can be to make carbon pollution more expensive by putting a price on it, the most credible way to accelerate the adoption of zero-carbon technologies is to make that technology cheap and widely available.
The Inflation Reduction Act embodies this theory: it created long-term public incentives that promote the innovation and deployment of a variety of clean energy technologies. This public investment is already transforming the U.S. energy industry, and it holds even more potential for global energy markets. By driving down the cost of clean energy technologies—particularly innovative technologies such as nuclear power and carbon capture—the IRA could generate up to $120 billion in global savings by 2030. The resulting uptake of clean energy technologies in emerging markets could ultimately yield emission reductions in the rest of the world that would be two to four times as large as those achieved in the United States.
But the adoption of low-cost clean energy technologies is not self-executing. Without U.S. leadership, the world will simply not do enough fast enough to limit the worst effects of global warming. Unfortunately, the United States has yet to offer a full-throated answer to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, the $1 trillion infrastructure project Beijing designed to expand its influence across the globe. And now, some leaders in China are calling for Beijing to go even further and develop a Marshall Plan–style approach to drive clean energy adoption in developing countries. Meanwhile, other players are also stepping up where the United States has not. For all the controversy about the United Arab Emirates—a fossil fuel nation—hosting last year’s UN climate conference, it is notable that it was the UAE, and not the United States, that proposed a large funding effort aimed at scaling zero-carbon technology to appropriate levels for emerging markets.
Ceding this space is a failure of American leadership and a missed economic opportunity. Skepticism of the United States, exacerbated by its handling of the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, is already high in Southeast Asia and across the developing world, where Washington cannot afford to see alliances fray. And when countries there look to China or the UAE for capital and technology, American innovators and workers lose ground.
Implementing a Clean Energy Marshall Plan won’t be easy, but the process must begin now. As after World War II, the United States can be generous as well as pro-American in its approach. It can promote U.S. interests by scaling its industries to meet global needs while winning greater influence in this new geopolitical landscape. And it can meet developing countries where they are—supplying them with the energy they need to expand their economies and the innovation they need to decarbonize efficiently.
To accomplish these aims, however, Washington needs a clear mandate, adequate resources, and flexible tools. And it will need to enact a strategy that does three things: finances foreign deployment of U.S. clean energy technology, secures more resilient supply chains, and creates a new, more balanced trade regime that encourages the development and implementation of clean energy technology.
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Andrés Gluski, President and CEO of AES Corporation.HOMEGROWN ADVANTAGES
The United States should begin with a focused investment and commercial diplomacy effort, akin to that of the Marshall Plan. The Marshall Plan had a straightforward aim: subsidize European demand for U.S. products and services needed to rebuild Europe. Today, the United States should establish a Clean Energy Finance Authority with an updated mission: subsidize foreign demand for clean energy technology and put American innovation and industry at the front of the line.
The new body would enable the United States to participate in foreign deals that promote U.S. innovation and production while reducing emissions. The purpose would be to reduce the premium that emerging-market economies must pay to meet their energy needs in a low-carbon way. To receive U.S. investments, governments and private sectors in these countries would themselves need to invest in clean energy. The promise of reliable U.S. support would prompt reform.
The good news is that most of the technologies necessary, from solar power to battery storage to wind turbines, are already commercially scalable. Other technologies are now scaling up rapidly, thanks to U.S. investment. For example, the United States has used its existing drilling capacity to become the world’s leading producer of advanced geothermal energy. It is well positioned to leverage its homegrown advantages to export geothermal components to geopolitically important markets in Southeast Asia and Africa and beyond, where sources of reliable power are needed. The more these technologies are deployed, the more costs will come down, as processes become more efficient with scale. With patient capital, dividends will be manifold: steady, clean power; faster-growing markets; diversified supply chains; and support for hundreds of thousands of U.S. jobs. Similar opportunities exist for advanced nuclear and hydrogen power and carbon capture.
The United States has yet to offer a full-throated answer to the Belt and Road Initiative.
To be effective, the Clean Energy Finance Authority would need to be big yet nimble. Not only has the United States lagged other countries in offering public capital to lead the energy transition, but its financial support is also unnecessarily inflexible. Officials in foreign capitals joke that the United States shows up with a 100-page list of conditions, whereas China shows up with a blank check. The United States’ current financing authorities are constrained by byzantine rules that block U.S. investment that could advance its national interests.
For example, the U.S. Development Finance Corporation, which invests in projects in lower- and middle-income countries, cannot invest in lithium processing projects in Chile because it is considered a high-income country, yet companies in the low-income Democratic Republic of the Congo often find it impossible to meet the DFC’s stringent labor standards. Meanwhile, Chinese companies invested over $200 million in a Chilean lithium plant in 2023 and gained rights to explore Congolese lithium mines the same year. Of course, U.S. finance must continue to reflect American values, but there is still room for far greater flexibility in the name of national interest and the energy transition.
Promising models for a Clean Energy Finance Authority also exist. Domestically, the Department of Energy’s Loan Program Office rapidly expanded its capabilities, approving 11 investment commitments to companies totaling $18 billion in the past two fiscal years (versus just two commitments in the three years before that). Internationally, the DFC expanded its climate lending from less than $500 million to nearly $4 billion over the last three years. And the United States has supported creative financial partnerships with several countries. In Egypt, for example, the United States and Germany committed $250 million to stimulate $10 billion of private capital to accelerate the Egyptian energy transition.
The most effective aspects of these examples should be harnessed together under the Clean Energy Finance Authority, which should have a versatile financial toolkit, including the ability to issue debt and equity. It should be able to deploy this capital in creative arrangements, such as by blending it with foreign capital and lowering risk premiums with insurance and guarantees. It should draw on, not re-create, the Department of Energy’s expertise in assessing the risks and benefits of emerging technologies, such as advanced nuclear energy, hydrogen power, and carbon capture and storage. The Clean Energy Finance Authority could be managed by the U.S. Treasury Department, in light of the latter’s experience in risk underwriting and financial diligence, and given the mandate to coordinate closely across agencies.
With nimble, market-oriented financing capacities, the Clean Energy Finance Authority would be able to accelerate and initiate, not impede, financial transactions. Whereas the Marshall Plan was 90 percent financed with U.S. grants, a Clean Energy Marshall Plan could easily be the inverse, with less than ten percent of its expenditures in the form of grants and the rest of the capital being deployed as equity, debt, export credit, and other forms of financing. And whereas the Chinese Belt and Road model relies on government-dominated financing, an American approach would be market-based and therefore more efficient because it enables competition and encourages large investments of private capital.
The Clean Energy Finance Authority should be capitalized with a significant upfront commitment of money—enough to generate market momentum that tips the balance of clean energy investment toward the private sector; ultimately the private sector, not the public sector, will need to provide the majority of the financing the energy transition needs over the coming decades. If this new authority is set up and deployed properly, U.S. companies and innovators would gain more foreign demand, on favorably negotiated terms, and new market share. Foreign consumers, for their part, would gain access to new channels of cheap clean energy technology. For emerging-market countries and major emitters—such as Brazil, India, and Indonesia—the United States could act with both generosity and its own interests in mind.
THE DANGER OF DEPENDENCE
The United States should also establish a Clean Energy Resilience Authority, whose goal would be to create more resilient supply chains for the clean energy transition. To support burgeoning manufacturing production in developing countries, and to expand that of the United States, the world needs diversified supply chains that are not dominated by individual states and do not have exploitable chokepoints. Today, China controls 60 percent of the world’s rare-earth mining production and approximately 90 percent of its processing and refining capability.
The United States should lead a coalition of partners to build access to processed critical minerals such that the energy transition does not substitute dependence on foreign oil for dependence on Chinese critical minerals. Thankfully, the term “rare-earth minerals” is a misnomer: these elements are abundant and geographically dispersed. Eighty percent of the world’s lithium reserves, 66 percent of its nickel reserves, and 50 percent of its copper reserves are in democracies. Eighty percent of oil reserves, by contrast, are in OPEC countries, nearly all of which are autocracies.
In today’s energy market, the most important tool the United States wields is the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, a stockpile of oil created 50 years ago as a response to the 1973 oil crisis. In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, in 2022, the U.S. government used this reserve to ensure adequate supply by selling 180 million barrels of oil. When prices fell, the administration began refilling the reserve, securing a profit for U.S. taxpayers of close to $600 million as of May 2024. The mechanism has reduced the volatility of oil prices while advancing U.S. strategic interests.
As part of the Clean Energy Marshall Plan, Washington must level the playing field through the use of trade tools.
The United States should create a strategic reserve capability for critical minerals, as well. A body similar to the U.S. Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund, a reserve fund used to prevent fluctuations in the value of the U.S. dollar, but for critical minerals would enable the United States to stabilize the market for these resources. The Clean Energy Resilience Authority could offer various forms of financial insurance that would steady prices, protect consumers from price spikes, and generate stable revenue for producers during low-price periods. And it should have the ability to build up physical stockpiles of key minerals, such as graphite and cobalt, whether on U.S. soil or in allied territory.
Support for this type of reserve capability already exists. The bipartisan House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party recommended just such a body. The United States’ allies are also on board: in May, South Korea allocated an additional nearly $200 million to build up domestic lithium reserves. Indeed, the original Marshall Plan also recognized the need to improve access to strategically important materials, funding domestic stockpiles for goods such as industrial equipment and medical supplies.
With the Clean Energy Resilience Authority, the United States would be better able to craft multilateral agreements to diversify critical minerals processing. As part of that effort, it could organize a critical minerals club among leading producers and consumers, wherein members could offer and receive purchase commitments. Such an arrangement would give countries that produce and process minerals reliable access to the United States and other developed markets—assuming they meet high standards for sustainable and ethical mining practices. The outcome would be more minerals processed in a more diverse supply chain, sold into a more stable market.
TRADING PLACES
The Marshall Plan underscored the importance of using trade policy to advance U.S. interests: it required European countries to integrate their economies and to remove trade barriers as a means of expanding U.S. exports, promoting capitalism, and warding off communism. A Clean Energy Marshall Plan should help lead a coalition to elicit a more balanced global trading system.
Right now, China is the central actor in global supply chains for clean energy technologies. Facing a stalling domestic economy, China is pursuing a state-led strategy of investing in domestic manufacturing capacity rather than in greater domestic demand or a stronger social safety net. For some goods, such as electric vehicles, batteries, and solar panels, China explicitly aims to dominate global manufacturing. That strategy is fundamentally unsustainable for the global economy. For one thing, it creates acute supply chain vulnerabilities; because the world relies so heavily on China for processing rare-earth minerals, a natural disaster or geopolitical tensions could threaten the entire global supply. For another thing, the strategy erodes industrial capacity across the world, including in the United States. By flooding global markets with artificially cheap goods without a commensurate increase in imports, China forces the cost of its subsidies onto its trade partners—undercutting employment, innovation, and industrial capacity elsewhere. Indeed, this strategy even harms China’s own industrial sector and fails to address the root causes of its domestic economic challenges.
As part of the Clean Energy Marshall Plan, Washington must level the global playing field through the active yet measured use of trade tools such as tariffs. Doing nothing and being resigned to China’s statist approach is neither economically nor politically sustainable. And using blunt tools to effectuate what amounts to a unilateral retreat is dangerous. Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s call to essentially end all imports from China within four years is a cynical fantasy playing on populist fears. In 2022, U.S. goods and services trade with China amounted to over $750 billion. It is not practicable to decouple from any major economy, let alone the United States’ third-largest trading partner. Global trade delivers important benefits, whereas unilateral, asymmetric escalation would leave the United States isolated and vulnerable.
The right approach is to harmonize more active trade policies with like-minded countries. Indeed, Brazil, Chile, India, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey, and Vietnam, among others, are all investigating or imposing tariffs on Chinese dumping practices. China is now the object of twice as many retaliatory measures as it was four years ago. The growing pushback represents a chance for the United States to address the Chinese-driven global trade imbalance by crafting a global coalition to galvanize a coordinated response while creating more global trade in clean energy goods and services.
To accomplish this, the United States must use expanded, stronger, and smarter trade authorities. For example, Washington should build into its tariffs on imported goods an assessment of how much carbon was used to produce them. Tariffs should be determined by the emission intensity of the trading partner’s entire industry, rather than company by company, to avoid “resource reshuffling,” whereby countries try to dodge penalties by limiting their exports to only products manufactured with clean energy instead of reducing their emissions overall. These tariffs should be aimed at all countries, but given its current production practices, China would be hit the hardest.
This form of tariff regime could be coordinated with what other countries are doing on the same front. The effort should begin with the steel sector. Chinese-made steel is two to five times as carbon-intensive as U.S.-made steel and is being dumped in markets around the world. The United States has been working on an arrangement with the European Union to harmonize tariffs on steel and aluminum. But the EU need not be the United States’ first or only partner in this initiative. There is a global appetite to enact a common external tariff regime on China to respond to its overproduction and carbon-intensive practices. Washington should work to pull this group together through the G-7 and G-20.
There is also a domestic appetite for this approach, in both the U.S. Congress and the private sector. For example, Dow Chemical has advocated the use of carbon policies to favor environmentally responsible industries that make heavily traded goods. Several bipartisan bills now in Congress propose similar policies. The United States could develop an industrial competitiveness program for heavy industries, such as those producing cement, steel, and chemicals, that bolsters domestic industry and makes trade more fair by charging a carbon-based fee on both domestic industries and imports at the border. This program would incentivize domestic innovation and efficiency, and it would advantage environmentally responsible U.S. companies that compete with heavy-carbon-emitting foreign producers. The revenue from the fee could be rebated to the U.S. private sector by rewarding the cleanest domestic producers and investing in research and development.
Investing in a clean energy transition abroad will benefit businesses and workers at home.
A carbon-based tariff, or a carbon border adjustment, should further motivate climate action by exempting countries that are hitting their nationally determined goals under the 2016 Paris climate agreement or those that fall below certain income and emission thresholds. To complement the Clean Energy Finance Authority, the tariff could be lowered in exchange for foreign procurement of clean energy technologies or of clean products made in the United States. For many developing countries, the tariff would act as a powerful accelerant to their energy development plans.
This approach would allow the United States to transition from its current indiscriminate, broad-based tariff regime to a more comprehensive carbon-based system that more accurately targets Chinese overcapacity and trade imbalance concerns. And the United States should leave the door open to cooperating with China in this context, as well.
Policymakers will have to reimagine existing trade rules—and be willing to lead the World Trade Organization and other international institutions in thinking about how trade can accelerate the clean energy transition. The WTO’s objective was never just to promote free trade for free trade’s sake; its founding document includes a vision for sustainable development. The WTO must reform if it is to deliver on that vision, but in the meantime, the United States shouldn’t cling to old trade conventions when more targeted and effective approaches exist.
BANKING FOR THE FUTURE
Finally, as the United States upgrades its tools of economic statecraft, it should also increase its expectations of the world’s multilateral development banks, especially the World Bank. Like its predecessor, the Clean Energy Marshall Plan would be temporary, designed to unlock a wave of innovation investment to address a global need. Multilateral development banks are a necessary complement to active U.S. leadership today, just as they were in the postwar era. But the banks need to deploy their capital with the urgency that the energy transition and economic development demand. Although there has been a welcome recent focus on this reform agenda—including by the Biden administration, the G-20, and even the banks themselves—progress has been tepid, and conventional proposals lack ambition and creativity. Incremental change is not enough.
Some avenues already exist to spur the proper level of ambition. For example, donor countries can increase the stakes for the banks by fostering competition among them to make tangible progress on reforms that increase lending for climate-related projects and leverage their investments more effectively. Washington can already provide capital in the form of guarantees to multilateral development banks; this authority could be expanded such that U.S. capital is allocated to these banks based on which ones deserve it most. This “play to get paid” structure would challenge the banks to come forward with legitimate plans to improve their lending practices for clean energy projects. And the guarantee structure offers a great bang for the buck: the World Bank can spend $6 for every $1 of guarantee provided.
The Green Climate Fund, the sole multilateral public financial institution devoted to addressing climate change, could follow this approach, too. Almost 15 years after it was founded, the GCF has disbursed only 20 percent of the funding it has received. To speed up its progress and increase its leverage, the GCF should allocate a portion of its funds to the multilateral development banks, building on its existing practice of lending to these institutions, based on a similar “play to get paid” principle. Instead of submitting individual project applications, the banks would submit proposals for leveraging hybrid capital to scale climate lending in support of the GCF’s mission, including the even split between those projects that prevent climate change and those that respond to its current impacts. In other words, the banks that can best attack the problem would receive flexible GCF capital to scale those efforts. Such a change would be merely one part of a multilateral system that maintains the momentum created by a Clean Energy Marshall Plan.
WIN-WIN-WIN
The Clean Energy Marshall Plan has the makings of a compelling pitch to U.S. domestic audiences: investing in the clean energy transition abroad will benefit businesses and workers at home. Evidence of that effect is already easy to find. The clean investment boom is turning novel technologies into market mainstays: emerging technologies such as hydrogen power and carbon capture now each receive more investment than wind. Billions of dollars are flowing to areas of the United States left behind by previous economic booms, bringing new jobs with them. But to further this momentum, the country needs to turn to foreign markets to boost demand for U.S. products.
The United States should seize the occasion to lead on its own terms. The Clean Energy Marshall Plan would be good for U.S. workers and businesses, unlocking billions of dollars of market opportunities; good for the United States’ developing country partners, by delivering low-cost decarbonization solutions; and good for the world order, by building more resilient supply chains and a more balanced and sustainable trading system.
Such a plan requires political focus and money, but it is not impossible. The United States can spend far less than it did on the Marshall Plan, thanks to the better financial tools available today and falling clean technology costs. And it could recycle the proceeds from a carbon-based border adjustment tariff into the finance and resilience authorities, thus setting up a system that pays for itself.
In this moment of domestic economic strength—stark against the backdrop of heightened competition, a fracturing world, and a raging climate crisis—the United States can do something generous for people across the globe in a way that benefits Americans. It should take that leap, not just because it is the morally right thing to do but also because it is the strategically necessary thing to do.
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(FA) The Perils of Isolationism… By Condoleezza Rice…
Could we be on the brink of a new Yalta Conference?
Good morning and a cheerful Monday to all!
For the past few months, our blog has been your go-to source for impartial insights on pressing matters like economic trends, energy dilemmas, and geopolitical transformations. Today, we’re thrilled to share an extraordinary essay by the esteemed Ms. Condoleezza Rice, published in Foreign Affairs magazine. Born on November 14, 1954, in Birmingham, Alabama, Ms. Rice made history as the 66th Secretary of State of the United States during President George W. Bush's tenure. She was the first African-American woman to hold this esteemed position, following in the footsteps of Colin Powell and Madeleine Albright. Additionally, she broke ground as the first female National Security Advisor in Bush's first term, playing a crucial role in shaping the nation’s security strategies. We encourage you to explore her insightful writings.
In times of uncertainty, it’s common for people to draw parallels with history. After the events of 9/11, officials from the George W. Bush administration often likened the intelligence failures leading to the attacks to Pearl Harbor. Secretary of State Colin Powell referenced the surprise attack by Imperial Japan to argue for an ultimatum to the Taliban, asserting, “Decent countries don’t launch surprise attacks.” As discussions in the Situation Room turned to the situations in Afghanistan and Iraq, another historical reference frequently emerged: President Lyndon Johnson’s ill-fated reliance on body counts during the Vietnam War. While history may not repeat itself, it certainly has a way of echoing.
Today, the prevailing historical analogy is the Cold War. The United States finds itself once again facing a formidable adversary with global ambitions—China, stepping into the shoes of the Soviet Union. This comparison is particularly appealing since the U.S. and its allies emerged victorious in the Cold War. However, the current landscape is not merely a replay of that era; it’s far more perilous.
China is not the Soviet Union. The latter was characterized by self-imposed isolation, favoring autarky over integration, while China rejoined the global community in the late 1970s. Another key distinction lies in ideology. The Brezhnev Doctrine that governed Eastern Europe mandated that allies mirror Soviet-style communism. In contrast, China adopts a more flexible stance regarding the internal structures of other nations. While it staunchly upholds the supremacy of the Chinese Communist Party, it doesn’t impose its model on others, even as it supports authoritarian regimes by sharing its surveillance technology and social media platforms.
Artwork by Germán & CoThe World Still America—and America Still Needs the World?
Artwork by Germán & Co
Good morning and happy Monday to everyone!
For several months, our blog has been delivering unbiased analyses of critical issues such as economic trends, energy challenges, and geopolitical shifts. It is with great excitement that we present a remarkable essay by Ms. Condoleezza Rice, featured in Foreign Affairs magazine. Ms. Rice, born on November 14, 1954, in Birmingham, Alabama, carved her place in history as the 66th Secretary of State of the United States, appointed during President George W. Bush's administration. Notably, she was the first African-American woman to hold this prestigious role, succeeding Colin Powell as the second African-American and Madeleine Albright as the second woman in the position. Additionally, she served as the first female National Security Advisor in President Bush's initial term, playing a pivotal role in shaping national security policies. We invite you to delve into her perceptive essays.
In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central
In times of uncertainty, people reach for historical analogies. After 9/11, George W. Bush administration officials invoked Pearl Harbor as a standard comparison in processing the intelligence failure that led to the attack. Secretary of State Colin Powell referred to Imperial Japan’s attack in making the case that Washington should deliver an ultimatum to the Taliban, saying, “Decent countries don’t launch surprise attacks.” And as officials in the Situation Room tried to assess progress in Afghanistan and, later, Iraq, another analogy came up more than a few times: U.S. President Lyndon Johnson’s disastrous reliance on body counts in Vietnam. Even if history doesn’t repeat itself, it sometimes rhymes.
Today’s favorite analogy is the Cold War. The United States again faces an adversary that has global reach and insatiable ambition, with China taking the place of the Soviet Union. This is a particularly attractive comparison, of course, because the United States and its allies won the Cold War. But the current period is not a Cold War redux. It is more dangerous.
China is not the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union was self-isolating, preferring autarky to integration, whereas China ended its isolation in the late 1970s. A second difference between the Soviet Union and China is the role of ideology. Under the Brezhnev Doctrine that governed Eastern Europe, an ally had to be a carbon copy of Soviet-style communism. China, by contrast, is largely agnostic about the internal composition of other states. It fiercely defends the primacy and superiority of the Chinese Communist Party but does not insist that others do the equivalent, even if it is happy to support authoritarian states by exporting its surveillance technology and social media services.
THE REVENGE OF GEOPOLITICS
While previous eras of competition were characterized by great-power clashes, during the Cold War, territorial conflict was fought largely through proxies, as in Angola and Nicaragua. Moscow mostly confined its use of military force to its own sphere of influence in Eastern Europe, as when it crushed uprisings in Hungary and Czechoslovakia. The 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan crossed a new line, but the move did not fundamentally challenge U.S. interests, and the conflict eventually became a proxy war. Where Soviet and U.S. forces did face each other directly, across the German divide, the extreme danger of the two Berlin crises gave way to a kind of tense stability thanks to nuclear deterrence.
Today’s security landscape features the danger of direct military conflict between great powers. China’s territorial claims challenge U.S. allies from Japan to the Philippines and other U.S. partners in the region, such as India and Vietnam. Long-held U.S. interests such as freedom of navigation run into direct conflict with China’s maritime ambitions.
Then there is Taiwan. An attack on Taiwan would require a U.S. military response, even if the policy of “strategic ambiguity” created uncertainty about the exact nature of it. For years, the United States has acted as a kind of rheostat in the Taiwan Strait, with the goal of preserving the status quo. Since 1979, administrations from both parties have sold arms to Taiwan. President Bill Clinton deployed the USS Independence to the strait in 1996 in response to Beijing’s aggressive activity. In 2003, the Bush administration publicly chastised Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian when he proposed a referendum that sounded very much like a vote on independence. All along, the goal was to maintain—or occasionally, restore—what had become a relatively stable status quo.
Xi has turned out to be a true Marxist.
In recent years, Beijing’s aggressive military activities around Taiwan have challenged that equilibrium. In Washington, strategic ambiguity has largely given way to open discussion of how to deter and, if necessary, repel a Chinese invasion. But Beijing could threaten Taiwan in other ways. It could blockade the island, as Chinese forces have practiced in exercises. Or it could seize small, uninhabited Taiwanese islands, cut underwater cables, or launch large-scale cyberattacks. These strategies might be smarter than a risky and difficult assault on Taiwan and would complicate a U.S. response.
The overarching point is that Beijing has Taiwan in its sights. Chinese leader Xi Jinping, who views the island as a rogue province, wants to complete the restoration of China and take his place in the pantheon of leaders next to Mao Zedong. Hong Kong is now effectively a province of China, and bringing Taiwan to heel would fulfill Xi’s ambition. That risks open conflict between U.S. and Chinese forces.
Alarmingly, the United States and China still have none of the deconfliction measures in place that the United States and Russia do. During the 2008 war in Georgia, for instance, Michael Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, had ongoing contact with his Russian counterpart, Nikolai Makarov, so as to avoid an incident as the U.S. Air Force flew Georgian troops home from Iraq to join the fight. Compare that with 2001, when a hot-dogging Chinese pilot hit a U.S. reconnaissance plane and forced it to the ground. The crew was detained on Hainan Island, and for three days, Washington was unable to make high-level contact with the Chinese leadership. I was national security adviser at the time. Finally, I located my Chinese counterpart, who was on a trip in Argentina, and got the Argentines to take a phone to him at a barbecue. “Tell your leaders to take our call,” I implored. Only then were we able to defuse the crisis and free the crew. The reopening of military-to-military contacts with China earlier this year, after a four-year freeze, was a welcome development. But it is a far cry from the types of procedures and lines of communication needed to prevent accidental catastrophe.
China’s conventional military modernization is impressive and accelerating. The country now has the largest navy in the world, with over 370 ships and submarines. The growth in China’s nuclear arsenal is also alarming. While the United States and the Soviet Union came to a more or less common understanding of how to maintain the nuclear equilibrium during the Cold War, that was a two-player game. If China’s nuclear modernization continues, the world will face a more complicated, multiplayer scenario—and without the safety net that Moscow and Washington developed.
The potential for conflict comes against the backdrop of an arms race in revolutionary technologies: artificial intelligence, quantum computing, synthetic biology, robotics, advances in space, and others. In 2017, Xi gave a speech in which he declared that China would surpass the United States in these frontier technologies by 2035. Although he was undoubtedly trying to rally China’s scientists and engineers, it may be a speech he has come to regret. Just as it was after the Soviet Union launched the Sputnik satellite, the United States was forced to confront the possibility that it could lose a technological race to its main adversary—a realization that has spurred a concerted pushback from Washington.
When the COVID-19 pandemic hit in 2020, the United States suddenly understood further vulnerabilities. The supply chain for everything from pharmacological inputs to rare-earth minerals depended on China. Beijing had taken the lead in industries that the United States once dominated, such as the production of batteries. Access to high-end semiconductors, an industry created by American giants such as Intel, turned out to depend on the security of Taiwan, where 90 percent of advanced chip making takes place.
It is hard to overstate the shock and sense of betrayal that gripped U.S. leaders. U.S. policy toward China was always something of an experiment, with proponents of economic engagement betting that it would induce political reform. For decades, the benefits flowing from the bet seemed to outweigh the downsides. Even if there were problems with intellectual property protection and market access (and there were), Chinese domestic growth fueled international economic growth. China was a hot market, a good place to invest, and a valued supplier of low-cost labor. Supply chains stretched from China across the world. By the time China joined the World Trade Organization, in 2001, the total trade volume between the United States and China had increased roughly fivefold over the previous decade, reaching $120 billion. It seemed inevitable that China would change internally, since economic liberalization and political control were ultimately incompatible. Xi came to power agreeing with this maxim, but not in the way the West had hoped: instead of economic liberalization, he chose political control.
Not surprisingly, the United States eventually reversed course, beginning with the Trump administration and continuing through the Biden administration. A bipartisan agreement emerged that China’s behavior was unacceptable. As a result, the United States’ technological decoupling from China is now well underway, and a labyrinth of restrictions impedes outbound and inbound investment. For now, American universities remain open to training Chinese graduate students and to international collaboration, both of which have significant benefits for the U.S. scientific community. But there is far more awareness of the challenge that these activities can pose for national security.
So far, however, decoupling does not extend to the full range of commercial activity. The international economy will still be well served by trade and investment between the world’s two largest economies. The dream of seamless integration may be dead, but there are benefits—including to global stability—if Beijing continues to have a stake in the international system. Some problems, such as climate change, will be difficult to address without China’s involvement. Washington and Beijing will need to find a new basis for a workable relationship.
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In the final 2012 presidential debate, U.S. President Barack Obama argued that his opponent, Mitt Romney, was overhyping the danger from Russia, suggesting that the country was no longer a geopolitical threat. With the 2014 annexation of Crimea, it became clear that Russian President Vladimir Putin begged to differ.
The next step, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, has brought his ambition to restore the Russian Empire face to face with the redlines of Article 5 of NATO’s founding treaty, which stipulates that an attack on one member is treated as an attack on all. Early in the war, NATO worried that Moscow might attack supply lines in Poland and Romania, both members of the alliance. So far, Putin has shown no appetite for triggering Article 5, but the Black Sea (which the tsars considered a Russian lake) has again become a source of conflict and tension. Remarkably, Ukraine, a country that barely has a navy, has successfully challenged Russian naval power and can now move grain along its own coastline. Even more devastating for Putin, his gambit has produced a strategic alignment among Europe, the United States, and much of the rest of the world, leading to extensive sanctions against Russia. It is now an isolated and heavily militarized state.
Putin surely never thought it would turn out this way. Moscow initially predicted Ukraine would fall within days of the invasion. Russian forces were carrying three days’ worth of provisions and dress uniforms for the parade they expected to hold in Kyiv. The embarrassing first year of the war exposed the weaknesses of the Russian armed forces, which turned out to be riddled with corruption and incompetence. But as it has done throughout its history, Russia has stabilized the front, relying on old-fashioned tactics such as human wave attacks, trenches, and land mines. The incremental way in which the United States and its allies supplied weapons to Ukraine—first debating whether to send tanks, then doing so, and so on—gave Moscow breathing room to mobilize its defense industrial base and throw its huge manpower advantage at the Ukrainians.
Great-power DNA is still very much in the American genome.
Still, the economic toll will haunt Moscow for years to come. An estimated one million Russians fled their country in response to Putin’s war, many of them young and well educated. Russia’s oil and gas industry has been crippled by the loss of important markets and the withdrawal of the multinational oil giants BP, Exxon, and Shell. Russia’s talented central banker, Elvira Nabiullina, has covered up many of the economy’s vulnerabilities, walking a tightrope without access to the $300 billion in frozen Russian assets held in the West, and China has stepped in to take off some of the pressure. But the cracks in the Russian economy are showing. According to a report commissioned for Gazprom, the majority-state-owned energy giant, the company’s revenue will stay below its pre-war level for at least ten years thanks to the effects of the invasion.
Thoughtful economic players in Moscow are worried. But Putin cannot lose this war, and he is willing to sacrifice everything to stave off disaster. As Germany’s experience in the interwar period suggests, an isolated, militarized, declining power is exceedingly dangerous.
The challenge is complicated by Russia’s growing cooperation with China, Iran, and North Korea. The four countries have a common cause: to undermine and replace the U.S.-led international system that they detest. Still, it is worth noting that their strategic interests are not easy to harmonize. Beijing cannot let Putin lose but likely has no real enthusiasm for his adventurism on behalf of a new Russian empire—particularly if it puts China in the cross hairs for secondary sanctions on its own struggling economy.
Meanwhile, the growth of Chinese power in Central Asia and beyond is not likely to warm the hearts of the xenophobes in the Kremlin. China’s ambitions complicate Russia’s relations with India, a long-standing military partner that is now turning more toward the United States. Russia’s dalliance with North Korea complicates its own relationship with South Korea—and China’s, as well. Iran terrifies both Russia and China as it moves closer to developing a nuclear weapon. Tehran’s proxies are a constant source of trouble in the Middle East: the Houthis endanger shipping in the Red Sea, Hamas recklessly launched a war with Israel, Hezbollah in Lebanon threatens to widen that war into a regional conflagration, and militias in Iraq and Syria that Tehran does not always seem to control have carried out attacks on U.S. military personnel. A nasty and unstable Middle East is not good for Russia or China. And none of the three powers really trusts North Korea’s erratic leader, Kim Jong Un.
That said, international politics has always made for strange bedfellows when revisionist powers seek to undo the status quo. And they can do a lot of collective damage despite their differences
CRUMBLING ORDER
The post–World War II liberal order was a direct response to the horrors of the interwar period. The United States and its allies looked back on the economic depression and international aggression of the 1920s and 1930s and located the cause in beggar-thy-neighbor protectionism, currency manipulation, and violent quests for resources—for example, leading to the aggressive behavior by Imperial Japan in the Pacific. The absence of the United States as a kind of offshore mediator also contributed to the breakdown of order. The one effort to build a moderating institution after World War I, the League of Nations, proved to be a pathetic disgrace, covering aggression rather than confronting it. Asian and European powers, left to their own devices, fell into catastrophic conflict.
After World War II, the United States and its allies built an economic order that was no longer zero-sum. At the Bretton Woods conference, they laid the groundwork for the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (the predecessor of the World Trade Organization), which together promoted the free movement of goods and services and stimulated international economic growth. For the most part, it was a wildly successful strategy. Global GDP grew and grew, surpassing the $100 trillion mark in 2022.
The companion to this “economic commons” was a “security commons” that was also led by the United States. Washington committed to the defense of Europe through NATO’s Article 5, which, after the Soviet Union’s successful nuclear test in 1949, essentially meant pledging to trade New York for London or Washington for Bonn. A similar U.S. commitment to Japan allowed that country to replace the legacy of its hated imperial military with self-defense forces and a “peace constitution,” easing relations with its neighbors. By 1953, South Korea also had a U.S. security guarantee, ensuring peace on the Korean Peninsula. As the United Kingdom and France stepped back from the Middle East after the 1956 Suez crisis, the United States became the guarantor of freedom of navigation in the region and, in time, its major stabilizing force.
Today’s international system is not yet a throwback to the early twentieth century. The death of globalization is often overstated, but the rush to pursue onshoring, near-shoring, and “friend shoring,” largely in reaction to China, does portend a weakening of integration. The United States has been largely absent from negotiations on trade for almost a decade now. It’s hard to recall the last time that an American politician gave a spirited defense of free trade. The new consensus raises the question: Can the aspiration for the freer movement of goods and services survive the United States’ absence from the game?
Globalization will continue in some form. But the sense that it is a positive force has lost steam. Consider the way countries acted in response to 9/11 versus how they acted in response to the pandemic. After 9/11, the world united in tackling terrorism, a problem that almost every country was experiencing in some form. Within a few weeks of the attack, the UN Security Council unanimously passed a resolution allowing the tracking of terrorist financing across borders. Countries quickly harmonized their airport security standards. The United States soon joined with other countries to create the Proliferation Security Initiative, a forum for sharing information on suspicious cargo that would grow to include over 100 member states. Fast-forward to 2020, and the world saw the revenge of the sovereign state. International institutions were compromised, the chief example being the World Health Organization, which had grown too close to China. Travel restrictions, bans on the export of protective gear, and claims on vaccines complicated the road to recovery.
With the growing chasm between the United States and its allies on one side and China and Russia on the other, it is hard to imagine this trend reversing. Economic integration, which after the collapse of the Soviet Union was thought to be a common project for growth and peace, has given way to a zero-sum quest for territory, markets, and innovation. Still, one would hope that humankind has learned from the disastrous consequences of protectionism and isolationism in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. So how can it avoid a repeat of history?
ANOTHER TWILIGHT STRUGGLE
The United States might take the advice that the diplomat George Kennan gave in his famous “Long Telegram” of 1946. Kennan advised Washington to deny the Soviet Union the easy course of external expansion until it was forced to deal with its own internal contradictions. This was prescient, as four decades later, Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev’s attempts to reform a fundamentally rotten system wound up collapsing it instead.
Today, Russia’s internal contradictions are obvious. Putin has undone 30-plus years of Russian integration into the international economy and relies on a network of opportunistic states that throw crumbs his way to sustain his regime. No one knows how long this shell of Russian greatness can survive, but it can do a lot of harm before it cracks. Resisting and deterring Russian military aggression is essential until it does.
Putin counts on a cowed and poorly informed population, and his regime indoctrinates young people in ways that are reminiscent of the Hitler Youth. The announcement this June that Russian children will attend summer camps in North Korea, of all places, is stunning. Russians, once able to travel and study abroad, now face a different future. They must make sacrifices, Putin tells them, in the service of “Mother Russia.”
Yet Russia’s human potential has always been great, despite what often seems like a deliberate plot by its leaders to destroy it. It is incumbent on the United States, Europe, and others to keep some connection to the Russian people. Russians should be allowed, when possible, to study and work abroad. Efforts, open and covert, should be made to pierce Putin’s propaganda, particularly in the cities, where he is neither trusted nor liked. Finally, the Russian opposition cannot be abandoned. The Baltic states house much of the organization built by the activist Alexei Navalny, who died in a Siberian prison in February. He was one of the few leaders who had a real following in much of Russia. His death cannot be the end of his cause.
Isolation has never been the answer to the United States’ security or prosperity.
The case of Solidarity, the Polish trade union, provides an important lesson in how to nurture antiauthoritarian movements. When Poland’s Soviet-aligned regime declared martial law in 1981, Solidarity’s leader, Lech Walesa, went underground with his organization. The group was sustained by an odd troika: the Reagan administration’s CIA, the AFL-CIO, and the Vatican (and its Polish-born pope, John Paul II). Solidarity received relatively simple support from abroad, such as cash and printing presses. But when a political opening came in 1989, Walesa and company were ready to step in and lead a relatively smooth transition to democracy. The main lesson is that determined efforts can sustain opposition movements, as hard as that might be in Putin’s Russia.
China’s future is by no means as bleak as Russia’s. Yet China, too, has internal contradictions. The country is experiencing a rapid demographic inversion rarely seen outside of war. Births have declined by more than 50 percent since 2016, such that the total fertility rate is approaching 1.0. The one-child policy, put in place in 1979 and brutally enforced for decades, was the kind of mistake that only an authoritarian regime could have made, and now, millions of Chinese men don’t have mates. Since the policy ended in 2016, the state has tried to browbeat women into having children, turning women’s rights into a crusade for childbearing—yet more evidence of the panic in Beijing.
Another contradiction stems from the uneasy coexistence of capitalism and authoritarian communism. Xi has turned out to be a true Marxist. China’s golden age of private sector–led growth has slowed in large part because of the Chinese Communist Party’s anxiety about alternative sources of power. China used to lead the world in online education startups, but in 2021, the government cracked down on them because it could not reliably monitor their content. A once thriving entrepreneurial culture has withered away. China’s aggressive behavior toward foreigners has exposed other contradictions. Xi knows that China needs foreign direct investment, and he courts corporate leaders from across the world. But then, a Western firm’s offices are raided or one of its Chinese employees is detained, and, not surprisingly, a trust deficit grows between Beijing and foreign investors.
China is also suffering a trust deficit with its youth. Young Chinese citizens may be proud of their country, but a 20 percent youth unemployment rate has undermined their optimism for the future. Xi’s heavy-handed propagation of “Xi Jinping Thought” turns them off. This has led them to adopt an attitude of what is known colloquially as “lying flat,” a passive-aggressive stance of going along to get along while harboring no loyalty or enthusiasm for the regime. Now is thus not the time to isolate Chinese youth but the time to welcome them to study in the United States. As Nicholas Burns, the U.S. ambassador to China, has noted, a regime that goes out of its way to intimidate its citizens to discourage them from engaging with Americans is not a confident regime. Indeed, it is a signal for the United States to keep pushing for connections to the Chinese people.
Meanwhile, Washington will need to maintain economic pressure on the revisionist powers. It should continue isolating Russia, with an eye toward arresting Beijing’s creeping support for the Kremlin. But it should refrain from imposing blunt sanctions against China, since they would be ineffective and counterproductive, crippling the U.S. economy in the process. Targeted sanctions, by contrast, may slow Beijing’s military and technological progress, at least for a while. Iran is much more vulnerable. Never again should Washington unfreeze Iranian assets, as the Biden administration did as part of a deal to release five imprisoned Americans. Efforts to find moderates among Iran’s theocrats are doomed to failure and serve only to allow the mullahs to escape the contradictions of their unpopular, aggressive, and incompetent regime.
WHAT IT TAKES
This strategy will require investment. The United States needs to maintain the defense capabilities sufficient to deny China, Russia, and Iran their strategic goals. The war in Ukraine has revealed weaknesses in the U.S. defense industrial base that must be remedied. Critical reforms need to be made to the defense budgeting process, which is inadequate to this task. Congress must strive to enhance the Defense Department’s long-term strategic planning process, as well as its ability to adapt to evolving threats. The Pentagon should also work with Congress to gain greater efficiencies from the amount it already spends. Costs can be reduced in part by speeding up the Pentagon’s slow procurement and acquisition processes so that the military can better harness the remarkable technology coming out of the private sector. Beyond military capabilities, the United States must rebuild the other elements of its diplomatic toolkit—such as information operations—that have eroded since the Cold War.
The United States and other democracies must win the technological arms race, since in the future, transformative technologies will be the most important source of national power. The debate about the balance between regulation and innovation is just beginning. But while the possible downsides should be acknowledged, ultimately it is more important to unleash these technologies’ potential for societal good and national security. Chinese progress can be slowed but not stopped, and the United States will have to run fast and hard to win this race. Democracies will investigate these technologies, call congressional hearings about them, and debate their impact openly. Authoritarians will not. For this reason, among many others, authoritarians must not triumph.
The good news is that given the behavior of China and Russia, the United States’ allies are ready to contribute to the common defense. Many countries in the Asia-Pacific region, including Australia, the Philippines, and Japan, recognize the threat and appear committed to addressing it. Relations between Japan and South Korea are better than ever. Moscow’s recent agreements with Pyongyang have alarmed Seoul and should deepen its cooperation with democratic allies. India, through its membership in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue—also known as the Quad, the strategic partnership that also includes Australia, Japan, and the United States—is cooperating closely with the U.S. military and emerging as a pivotal power in the Indo-Pacific. Vietnam, too, appears willing to contribute, given its own strategic concerns with China. The challenge will be to turn the ambitions of U.S. partners into sustained commitment once the costs of enhanced defense capabilities become clear.
In Europe, the war in Ukraine has mobilized NATO in ways unimaginable a few years ago. The addition of Sweden and Finland to NATO’s Arctic flank brings real military capability and helps secure the Baltic states. The question of postwar security arrangements for Ukraine hangs over the continent at this moment. The most straightforward answer would be to admit Ukraine to NATO and simultaneously to the European Union. Both institutions have accession processes that would take some time. The key point is this: Moscow needs to know that the alliance does not intend to leave a vacuum in Europe.
The United States also needs a strategy for dealing with the nonaligned states of the global South. These countries will insist on strategic flexibility, and Washington should resist the urge to issue loyalty tests. Rather, it should develop policies that address their concerns. Above all, the United States needs a meaningful alternative to the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s massive global infrastructure program. The BRI is often depicted as helping China win hearts and minds, but in reality it is not winning anything. Recipients are growing frustrated with the corruption, poor safety and labor standards, and fiscal unsustainability associated with its projects. The aid that the United States, Europe, Japan, and others offer is small by comparison, but unlike Chinese aid, it can attract significant foreign direct investment from the private sector, thus dwarfing the amount provided by the BRI. But you can’t beat something with nothing. A U.S. strategy that shows no interest in a region until China shows up is not going to succeed. Washington needs to demonstrate sustained engagement with countries in the global South on the issues they care about—namely, economic development, security, and climate change.
WHICH WAY, AMERICA?
The pre–World War II era was defined not only by great-power conflict and a weak international order but also by a rising tide of populism and isolationism. So is the current era. The main question hanging over the international system today is, Where does America stand?
The biggest difference between the first half of the twentieth century and the second half was the fact of Washington’s sustained and purposeful global engagement. After World War II, the United States was a confident country, with a baby boom, a growing middle class, and unbridled optimism about the future. The struggle against communism provided bipartisan unity, even if there were sometimes disagreements over specific policies. Most agreed with President John F. Kennedy that their country was willing to “pay any price, bear any burden” in the defense of freedom.
The United States is a different country now—exhausted by eight decades of international leadership, some of it successful and appreciated, and some of it dismissed as failure. The American people are different, too—less confident in their institutions and in the viability of the American dream. Years of divisive rhetoric, Internet echo chambers, and, even among the best-educated youth, ignorance of the complexity of history have left Americans with a tattered sense of shared values. For the latter problem, elite cultural institutions bear much of the blame. They have rewarded those who tear down the United States and ridiculed those who extol its virtues. To address Americans’ lack of faith in their institutions and in one another, schools and colleges must change their curricula to offer a more balanced view of U.S. history. And instead of creating a climate that reinforces one’s existing opinions, these and other institutions should encourage a healthy debate in which competing ideas are encouraged.
That said, great-power DNA is still very much in the American genome. Americans carry two contradictory thoughts simultaneously. One side of the brain looks at the world and thinks that the United States has done enough, saying, “It is someone else’s turn.” The other side looks abroad and sees a large country trying to extinguish a smaller one, children choking on nerve gas, or a terrorist group beheading a journalist and says, “We must act.” The president can appeal to either side.
The new Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse—populism, nativism, isolationism, and protectionism—tend to ride together, and they are challenging the political center. Only the United States can counter their advance and resist the temptation to go back to the future. But generating support for an internationalist foreign policy requires a president to paint a vivid picture of what that world would be like without an active United States. In such a world, an emboldened Putin and Xi, having defeated Ukraine, would move on to their next conquest. Iran would celebrate the United States’ withdrawal from the Middle East and sustain its illegitimate regime by external conquest through its proxies. Hamas and Hezbollah would launch more wars, and hopes that Gulf Arab states would normalize relations with Israel would be dashed. The international economy would be weaker, sapping U.S. growth. International waters would be contested, with piracy and other incidents at sea stalling the movement of goods. American leaders should remind the public that a reluctant United States has repeatedly been drawn into conflict—in 1917, 1941, and 2001. Isolation has never been the answer to the country’s security or prosperity.
Then, a leader must say that the United States is well positioned to design a different future. The country’s endlessly creative private sector is capable of continuous innovation. The United States has an unparalleled and secure energy bounty from Canada to Mexico that can sustain it through a reasonable energy transition over the many years it will take. It has more allies than any great power in history and good friends, as well. People around the world seeking a better life still dream of becoming Americans. If the United States can summon the will to deal with its immigration puzzle, it will not suffer the demographic calamity that faces most of the developed world.
The United States’ global involvement will not look exactly as it has for the last 80 years. Washington is likely to choose its engagements more carefully. If deterrence is strong, that may be enough. Allies will have to bear more of the cost of defending themselves. Trade agreements will be less ambitious and global but more regional and selective.
Internationalists must admit that they had a blind spot for those Americans, such as the unemployed coal miner and steelworker, who lost out as good jobs fled abroad. And the forgotten did not take kindly to the argument that they should shut up and be happy with cheap Chinese goods. This time, there can be no more platitudes about the advantages of globalization for all. There must be a real effort to give people meaningful education, skills, and job training. The task is even more urgent since technological progress will severely punish those who cannot keep up.
Those who argue for engagement will need to reframe what it means. The 80 years of U.S. internationalism is another analogy that doesn’t perfectly fit the circumstances of today. Still, if the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries taught Americans anything, it is this: other great powers don’t mind their own business. Instead, they seek to shape the global order. The future will be determined by the alliance of democratic, free-market states or it will be determined by the revisionist powers, harking back to a day of territorial conquest abroad and authoritarian practices at home. There is simply no other option.
If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.
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Natural gas: the fuel of war…
Natural gas: the spark igniting conflict...
The race for natural gas has reached a fever pitch between Asia and Europe, especially after Russia's bold move into Ukraine in February 2022. This military upheaval has thrown European gas markets into disarray, sending energy prices soaring to dizzying heights. The fallout has intensified geopolitical tensions and highlighted the urgent need for energy autonomy across both continents.
In the wake of this turmoil, the global natural gas landscape has undergone a seismic shift, with Europe stepping up as a major player in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) arena, particularly sourcing from the United States. This shift has reverberated through established Latin American markets and the rapidly growing Asian economies, reshaping the delicate balance of global energy supply and demand.
Why does life weigh so heavily on my shoulders?
For many, the captivating figure of Alain Fabien Maurice Marcel Delon remains etched in their memories. Born on November 8, 1935, in the affluent suburb of Sceaux, France, just a heartbeat away from Paris, Delon was nothing short of a phenomenon. "Le Magnifique" possessed an irresistible charm that left both men and women entranced, their hearts racing in pursuit of his striking presence. Ordinary folks would gaze in awe, exclaiming, "What luck! What a marvel!"
Yet, beneath the glimmering facade of this iconic actor and heartthrob lay a man weighed down by the very fame that elevated him. The unrelenting adoration from fans spiraled him into a profound melancholy, leading him to ponder the unthinkable as he navigated the stormy seas of his existence. In a twist of fate, he turned his back on his fervent admirers, instead showering his affection on the street animals—dogs, cats, and even the forsaken elephants trapped in cruel circuses.
Despite seemingly having it all, Le Magnifique was a maze of contradictions, often donning a prickly exterior. His complex persona was further complicated by his controversial homophobic views and ultra-right beliefs, which sparked both outrage and intrigue.
The brilliant Pilar Eyre, a Spanish writer, journalist, blogger, and YouTuber, has woven a narrative that captures the essence of this enigmatic actor. In a candid interview in Barcelona in 1996, Delon shared tales of his adventures, offering a glimpse into the multifaceted character that was both mesmerizing and perplexing.
Art work by Germán & CoThe scramble for natural gas resources has intensified markedly between Asia and Europe following Russia's incursion into Ukraine in February 2022. This military conflict has upended European gas markets and propelled energy prices to unprecedented levels. The situation has exacerbated geopolitical strains and underscored the critical importance of energy independence for both continents.
In response, there has been a profound shift in the global natural gas trade, with Europe emerging as a key importer of liquefied natural gas (LNG), notably from the United States. The development has sent ripples through the established Latin American markets and the burgeoning Asian economies, altering global energy supply and demand balance.
Why does life bother me so much?
For many, the enchanting figure of Alain Fabien Maurice Marcel Delon lingers in their minds. Born on November 8, 1935, in the affluent suburb of Sceaux, France, just a stone's throw from Paris, Delon was nothing short of a phenomenon. "Le Magnifique" had a magnetic charm that left both men and women spellbound, their hearts racing in pursuit of his striking allure. Ordinary folks would marvel, exclaiming, "What luck! What a wonder!"
Yet, beneath the surface of this iconic actor and heartthrob lay a man burdened by the weight of his own fame. The relentless adoration from fans spiralled him into a deep melancholy, leading him to contemplate the unthinkable as he navigated the tumultuous waters of his existence. In a twist of fate, he turned away from his fervent admirers, showing his affection to the street animals—dogs, cats, or even the forsaken elephants trapped in cruel circuses.
Despite seemingly having it all, Le Magnifique was a labyrinth of contradictions, often displaying a prickly demeanour. His complex nature was further complicated by his homophobic views and ultra-right beliefs, which sparked controversy and intrigue alike.
The brilliant Pilar Eyre, a Spanish writer, journalist, blogger, and YouTuber, has a tale that encapsulates the essence of this enigmatic actor. In a revealing interview in Barcelona in 1996, Delon shared stories of his escapades, offering a glimpse into the multifaceted personality that was both captivating and confounding.
Today's headlines …
(NYT) Mexico’s President Bet Big on Oil. His Successor Will Be Stuck With the Tab
Mexico’s next leader, Claudia Sheinbaum, is a climate scientist who has signaled a clean energy pivot. But a huge wager on fossil fuels by her political mentor stands in her way.
Why Mpox Vaccines Aren’t Flowing to Africans in Desperate Need
Drugmakers have supplies ready to ship that are necessary to stop a potential pandemic. But W.H.O. regulations have slowed access.
(POLITICO EU) WHO calls for $135M to combat mpox outbreak
The World Health Organization has warned that more money will be needed in future.
(EL País) Islamic State claims three dead in attack in Germany
The terrorist group claims that the stabbing was "in revenge for the Muslims in Palestine and everywhere". Police arrest a 15-year-old boy in connection with events at a festival.
Image by Germán & Co via Shutterstock
Natural gas prices significantly dropped in the first quarter of 2024, attributed to a mild winter. However, a rebound occurred by mid-June, with natural gas prices in the United States surging by 80% and European prices by 25% compared to March's average. By early August, Spain's electricity prices soared to €150 per megawatt-hour, spreading concern.
The struggle for natural gas resources between Asia and Europe has intensified due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Russia's military incursion has significantly disrupted European gas markets, substantially increasing energy costs. The conflict has brought geopolitical tensions to the forefront and underscored the critical importance of energy security for both regions.
This conflict has reoriented global natural gas flows, the most significant being the shift from the United States to Europe, which has emerged as a primary importer of liquefied natural gas. It has also affected the traditional Latin American and burgeoning Asian markets.
At this point, it is worth pausing to reflect on this powerful natural element, which requires unusual freezing at a temperature of -160º Celsius to complete its remarkable transformation from gas to liquid, enabling its transportation. The fuel sparks economic battles and bloody wars and, regardless of one's views on it, remains an indisputable pillar of modern existence.
The current natural gas prices at the Henry Hub Spot are significantly lower than their historical maxima. For instance, the price reached US$18.92 in December 2000, reached US$18.54 in February 2003, peaked at US$23.45 in September 2005, and rose to US$18.93 in June 2008. As of August 2022, the price is US$9.47 per million British thermal units (MBTUs).
A second echo is expected. The recent Ukrainian military incursion into Russian territory was deemed absolutely necessary to secure the natural gas supplying Europe, marking a significant development. This strategic action carries major implications for regional energy dynamics, leading to a geopolitical transformation of the increasingly uncertain global natural gas market.
Ms Pilar Eyre, alongside the legendary Mr Alain Delon, shares an unbreakable bond with his one true love, his beloved dog Loubo. Germán & Co. brings this masterpiece to life!
Happy Sabbath! We hope you're enjoying this day filled with peace and joy. It's a time for relaxation, reflection, and recharging, surrounded by your loved ones. May your day be enriched with warmth and meaningful moments that forge lasting memories.
For many, the memories of Alain Fabien Maurice Marcel Delon persist. Delon was born on November 8, 1935, in Sceaux, France, a wealthy suburb of Paris. "Le Magnifique" captivated both men and women who pursued him fervently and ardently, entranced by his exceptional beauty. Ordinary people would exclaim, "What fortune! What marvel!"
Yet, this man, an actor and sex symbol who did not regard himself as such, was troubled by their incessant adoration, which caused him colossal depression. Such dissatisfaction with life, which came to ask for euthanasia in the twilight of his torrid journey through life. In an ironic twist, he shunned his ardent admirers, opting to bestow his love upon the street animals—whether they be dogs, cats, or even the neglected elephants of cruel circuses.
Le Magnifique, perhaps for possessing everything, was a complex man with an uncomfortable and disagreeable character. He was also known for his homophobic tendencies and ultra-right views. His complexity, which often led to controversy, is a significant part of his character.
Perhaps Pilar Eyre, a wise and wonderful Spanish writer, journalist, blogger, and YouTuber now, has an anecdote that perfectly describes the personality of the actor. Delon told of his adventures in an interview he gave her in Barcelona in 1996.
The portrayal of the sincere, unfiltered, and timely character of the legendary actor, who stands as a titan in the annals of global cinema, unveils the myriads of struggles that Delon battled. This was all because he was not just a star but the epitome of charm and allure during a remarkable era in film history.
Yet, amidst all this turmoil, a deep well of bitterness and sorrow brewed within him regarding his interactions with his kin and outsiders. Overwhelmed by the weight of existence and the allure of his charm, he found a moment of twisted solace. He uttered a most peculiar compliment to the enchanting Ms Eyre: —-"How fortunate you are to be devoid of beauty..."
Well, Ms Eyre has bravely weathered Mr Delon's fiery praise, while the actor now finds himself in the twilight of his days, surrounded by his 45 beloved canine companions. But the enigmatic actor departed this world, leaving behind an unfulfilled desire that stirred quite the debate. Mr Delon's family turned down his heartfelt plea to have his beloved dog, Loubo, put to sleep and laid to rest by his side, especially after the uproar it sparked across France. In a candid chat with Paris Match back in 2018, he shared the poignant bond he had with Loubo, whom he cherished "like a child" during the dog's twilight years. Indeed, every mind is a mysterious universe, filled with unspoken wishes and untold stories...
Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...
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Andrés Gluski, President and CEO of AES Corporation.“When I joined in 2011, AES was in almost 30 countries and had development activities in several more. We decided that we were going to focus on fewer markets but focus more intensively on them. This is because we wanted to have a critical presence in those countries. Today, we are in 12 countries as an operator, but we are doing much more in those countries than we were previously. We are now one of the five largest renewable developers in the world outside China, and we are leaders in several technologies.
In addition to expanding our geographic footprint, we are also focused on improving our credit rating and our risk profile. We tackled risk across the board because there are many aspects to risk. In addition to the geographies, it involves the type of technology you have, and commodity exposures because we are mostly a big generator. We are known as independent power producers, so we may be exposed to technology and commodity changes. We made sure that in areas we could not hedge it financially, we would bring in the technology to decrease that risk. In Panama, we had almost 800 megawatts of hydro, but we were extremely dependent on the weather. Our business is contracted generation, so we had to supply energy at $80 a megawatt-hour to our clients. In years of drought, we would have to buy in the market. For example, there was a severe drought in Panama in 2014, and we lost $100 million as a result. We were buying energy at $300 a megawatt-hour to supply a contract at $80 per hour. Our first move was to float in a barge, and that produced thermal energy. However, it is relatively expensive and relatively small. We built an LNG regasification terminal and storage facility in Panama and an efficient combined-cycle plant. While the drought was just a bad this year, our losses are going to be marginal. This is because the price of energy is essentially capped at $120 a megawatt-hour. This is not only good for us, but it is great for Panama. The U.S. is going to be a big producer of natural gas, and it has sufficient liquefaction facilities. This has greatly helped countries in this area of the world. For example, by bringing in cheap LNG to the Dominican Republic, the country typically saves about half a billion dollars in its annual import bill. This is a much more stable price than oil prices. This allows the countries to develop industries such as tourism and services, so it is a win-win. Bringing in these new technologies has been extremely exciting…
https://www.forbes.com/sites/peterhigh/2019/12/09/how-the-ceo-of-a-major-energy-producer-is-reducing-his-companys-reliance-on-coal/The creativity and dedication of Germán and his team to each project is evident in their artistic work.
Natural gas prices significantly dropped in the first quarter of 2024, attributed to a mild winter. However, a rebound occurred by mid-June, with natural gas prices in the United States surging by 80% and European prices by 25% compared to March's average. By early August, Spain's electricity prices soared to €150 per megawatt-hour, spreading concern.
The struggle for natural gas resources between Asia and Europe has intensified due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Russia's military incursion has significantly disrupted European gas markets, substantially increasing energy costs. The conflict has brought geopolitical tensions to the forefront and underscored the critical importance of energy security for both regions.
This conflict has reoriented global natural gas flows, the most significant being the shift from the United States to Europe, which has emerged as a primary importer of liquefied natural gas. It has also affected the traditional Latin American and burgeoning Asian markets.
At this point, it is worth pausing to reflect on this powerful natural element, which requires unusual freezing at a temperature of -160º Celsius to complete its remarkable transformation from gas to liquid, enabling its transportation. The fuel sparks economic battles and bloody wars and, regardless of one's views on it, remains an indisputable pillar of modern existence.
The current natural gas prices at the Henry Hub Spot are significantly lower than their historical maxima. For instance, the price reached US$18.92 in December 2000, reached US$18.54 in February 2003, peaked at US$23.45 in September 2005, and rose to US$18.93 in June 2008. As of August 2022, the price is US$9.47 per million British thermal units (MBTUs).
A second echo is expected. The recent Ukrainian military incursion into Russian territory was deemed absolutely necessary to secure the natural gas supplying Europe, marking a significant development. This strategic action carries major implications for regional energy dynamics, leading to a geopolitical transformation of the increasingly uncertain global natural gas market.
Andriy Prokip is an energy specialist at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future in Kyiv and a senior associate at the Kennan Institute in Washington, D.C. Andreas Umland serves as a senior expert at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future in Kyiv and is a researcher at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs in Stockholm. Together, they wrote an article for the Harvard International Review titled "The Forgotten Potential of Ukraine's Energy Reserves," published on October 10, 2020, just 14 months before Russia invaded Ukraine. The natural gas market in Eurasia is comprehensively documented in this exceptional piece, available in this edition.
"The Forgotten Potential of Ukraine's Energy Reserves"
The European energy supply has increasingly become a geopolitical issue in recent years. It is closely linked to security concerns and competition between gas transportation routes, and the ongoing tensions between Ukraine and Russia. In late 2019, Kyiv secured a new and favorable transit agreement with Moscow for the transportation of Siberian gas to the European Union. The agreement was partly a response to new U.S. sanctions targeting Russia's offshore pipeline projects.
The five-year agreement ensures the ongoing utilization of a portion of Ukraine's extensive gas transportation system. If Gazprom's Nord Stream II pipeline through the Baltic Sea does not proceed, the Ukrainian gas transportation system will have potential for continued use and revenue generation.
However, these prominent confrontations and negotiations regarding various routes for Russian gas supply to the European Union have overshadowed the potential of Ukraine's gas and oil reserves, as well as its associated storage facilities. The significant natural resources within Ukraine's energy sector remain largely unexplored and underutilized, despite the fact that their development could stimulate economic growth in both the energy sector and other industries.
Untapped Potential…
Ukraine currently possesses the second-largest natural gas reserves in Europe, excluding Russia's reserves in Asia. As of late 2019, the known reserves in Ukraine totaled trillion cubic meters of natural gas, second only ranking just behind resources of 1.53 trillion cubic meters. This abundance, if effectively harnessed, of these wealth reserves, if reserves Ukraine's transform sector and significantly contribute, plays a crucial role in enhancing independence and the economy and fostering
Despite this optimistic situation, Ukraine remains significantly reliant on gas imports. When the USSR initiated large-scale gas extraction in Western Siberia during the 1970s, much of the relevant expertise and capacity in Soviet gas exploration and production was transferred from the Ukrainian Soviet Republic to the Russian Soviet Republic and several other Eastern European states. Consequently, as a result of this outflow of expertise, Ukraine's remaining gas resources are still underdeveloped, vastly underutilized, and partially unexplored.
Until recently, Ukraine's total average annual consumption was approximately 29.8 billion cubic meters (bcm). Of this entire yearly total approximately 14.3 demand, around imports. bcm was met through imports. Therefore, tapping into its untapped reserves could transform the future its energy consumption.
The resolute development of the already explored and accessible Ukrainian resources could significantly increase gas production. This enhancement would enable the country to fully meet its domestic gas needs and achieve a high degree of energy self-sufficiency. In an optimal scenario, increased production could allow Ukraine to export gas to or through neighboring European countries. This is feasible due to Ukraine's extensive gas transportation system, which provides the necessary infrastructure to deliver substantial quantities of gas to the European Union. With appropriate investments and strategic policy decisions, Ukraine could emerge as a key gas exporter to the EU, offering a reliable alternative to the current dominant suppliers and bolstering its geopolitical position.
According to some estimates, the European Union (E.U.) will import approximately per percent gas it consumes by 2030. In this context, smaller or prospective gas exporters like exporters, such as Ukraine, attractive increasingly appealing in Brussels. With its vast reserves substantial strategic location, Ukraine has the potential to significantly diversify the origins and sources of the European gas supply, thereby strengthening the enhancing negotiating E.U.'s and its own role in the energy market.
Despite the significant potential of Ukraine's energy reserves, there are substantial costs associated with developing the country's capabilities. According to an assessment study by study conducted Ukrainian Institute for the future, a Future, transforming a self-sufficient energy consumer and potential and a would require several investments to totaling billion. Of this amount, about US$3.5 around is needed for developing gas the development of and building pipelines, the construction of billion would have must into oil in and US$2 billion would go will be allocated for
The total investment required to achieve complete energy independence is substantial when compared to Ukraine's relatively modest state budget and GDP. However, this amount is roughly equivalent to the costs of current energy imports over a period of two to three years. Therefore, despite the high absolute cost, it would be recouped relatively quickly.
Moreover, financial investment in Ukraine's energy sector is becoming increasingly attractive. In recent years, Ukraine has gradually reduced distortive government interventions in the gas market, often under pressure from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Kyiv has implemented market pricing for households and has ceased providing subsidies to all consumers indiscriminately. This relatively new domestic market, combined with the anticipated recovery of European energy markets following the COVID-19 pandemic, is expected to make financial engagement in Ukrainian gas production and exploration more appealing than in the past. Consequently, the investment climate is likely to continue improving.
The Road Ahead…
Ukraine's gas transportation system will continue to play a vital role in the future of the country's energy sector. Ukraine possesses one of the most well-developed and comprehensive gas transportation infrastructures in the world, facilitating both domestic deliveries and export capabilities. The Ukrainian gas transit system is a legacy of the Soviet energy expansion into Europe, partially resulting from the German Neue Ostpolitik (New Eastern Policy) of the 1970s. For a long many years, the served as corridor primary transferring Soviet transporting Soviet, and later Central Asian gas to gas, European states. The nations. Currently, the utilization capacity is much lower significantly a than it was earlier due ago, primarily the completion of the first Nord Stream pipeline in 2012, the growing introduction increasing adoption energy resources, and the current economic ongoing however, downturn. Nevertheless, and compressor stations are still remain operational significant possess substantial merely delivering Russian or Turkmen gas to the E.U. European Union.
A significant component of Ukraine's multidimensional gas infrastructure is its extensive underground gas storage facilities. Currently, these facilities are only partially utilized, with a total storage capacity exceeding 31 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas. fully exploited, Ukraine could hypothetically potentially increase its storage capacity by nearly to of 100 bcm of storage space held by European Union (E.U.) hold. states. Consequently, surprise that not surprising consultancy Wood Mackenzie recently suggested that Ukraine holds the indicated to Europe's could play a crucial role in alleviating As result gas storage crisis. COVID-19 pandemic, world gas prices plummeted, but global E.U.'s storage experienced a sharp decline; however, not have enough space lack sufficient capacity the fully capitalize on this about investing address foreign investors' the country adopted some amendments to relevant implemented several directives in late 2019—regulatory modifications that make it 2019. These regulatory changes facilitate foreign firms' access In during the first nine months of 2020, foreign energy firms pumped 7.9 bcm of gas to companies injected storage, several times higher into the volume storage, a volume foreign gas greater in Ukraine amount 2019. the country 2019. Reason: Improved clarity, vocabulary, and technical accuracy while correcting grammatical and punctuation errors.
Hydrogen represents a new frontier for Ukraine's underdeveloped energy sector. Currently, several gas distribution companies are assessing Ukraine's pipeline capabilities to adapt existing infrastructure for the delivery of hydrogen to their customers. The European Union has recognized Ukraine as a priority partner for future collaboration in using hydrogen utilizing enhance the strengthen energy supply and security.
However, another energy source with significant potential in Ukraine is biogas. Currently, the country can produce approximately 10 million cubic meters of biogas annually, a volume roughly equivalent to the amount of natural gas that Ukraine imports each year. Given the growth of Ukraine's agricultural sector, its capacity to produce biogas may increase further. This potential is quite sustainable: blending biogas with hydrogen produces biomethane, an environmentally friendly energy source that is free of carbon dioxide.
Boosting Ukraine's domestic production of natural gas, biogas, hydrogen, and biomethane would not only reduce or potentially eliminate Ukraine's dependence on energy imports but also establish a new and dynamic export-oriented sector within the Ukrainian economy. This initiative would stimulate more robust growth across various other sectors. Simultaneously, the European Union would benefit from diversifying its gas supply sources and gaining a new primary energy partner in its immediate vicinity. Furthermore, such cooperation would strengthen Brussels' economic ties with Kyiv and diminish the need for ongoing Western support for the Ukrainian state. A concerted effort to develop Ukraine's untapped reserves for the production, export, and storage of energy would serve the interests of all parties involved.
Image by Germán & Co via Shutterstock
Mexico’s President Bet Big on Oil. His Successor Will Be Stuck With the Tab…
Mexico’s next leader, Claudia Sheinbaum, is a climate scientist who has signaled a clean energy pivot. But a huge wager on fossil fuels by her political mentor stands in her way.
NYT, Simon Romero, a journalist with extensive experience in Latin American affairs, has reported on energy politics from various postings, including Venezuela and Brazil. This article was filed from Mexico City.
On a sweltering day in August, Claudia Sheinbaum appeared with her mentor, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, to inaugurate one of the costliest infrastructure projects in Mexico’s history: a $16 billion oil refinery.
The sprawling complex in Mr. López Obrador’s home state, Tabasco, forms the capstone of an energy strategy that he will bequeath to Ms. Sheinbaum, a climate scientist, when she takes the presidency in October.
As countries around the world feverishly turn to clean energy sources, Mexico has placed a colossal bet on fossil fuels, with the costs of that strategy now coming painfully into view.
Mexico’s oil production tumbled to a 45-year low this year, one of the steepest output declines anywhere in the world this century. Blackouts plagued the country after Mr. López Obrador heaped scorn on wind farms that could help satisfy electricity demand. Natural gas imports for the strained grid are soaring, making energy independence an ever more distant dream.
Pemex, the state-controlled oil giant, is now the world’s most indebted oil company after going on a spending spree to build projects. To stave off a default on its nearly $100 billion debt, the company has required multibillion-dollar bailouts using taxpayer money.
The disorder in Mexico’s energy industry lays bare a dilemma that will shape the country’s fortunes — and Ms. Sheinbaum’s presidency — in the years to come. Ms. Sheinbaum, who has a Ph.D. in energy engineering, has signaled that she wants Mexico to pivot to clean energy sources. But the biggest obstacles in her way may be her mentor’s nationalistic energy policies that are fixated on oil — and her reluctance to bump heads with the man who helped put her in office.
“It’s a source of pride to see how Mexican engineers and workers have achieved this feat,” Ms. Sheinbaum said at the refinery’s inauguration.
She barely mentioned her own plans for an energy transition at the event. Instead, Ms. Sheinbaum voiced full-throated support for Mr. López Obrador’s oil-centric policies, calling the refinery, named Olmeca, “majestic,” while blasting previous leaders for exporting Mexico’s oil and opening the energy industry to private investment.
But the refinery, intended to tilt Mexico toward energy self-sufficiency by processing the country’s crude oil into gasoline instead of relying on U.S. refineries, remains far from fully operational, according to the International Energy Agency. Beset by delays and cost overruns, Mr. López Obrador already inaugurated the project once before, in 2022, when it was supposed to start operating in 2023.
Altogether, the Olmeca refinery doubled in cost from its initial $8 billion budget, adding to the financial pressure on Pemex. The company owes financial creditors almost $100 billion, and billions more to service providers that help the company produce oil. Delays in paying these companies led some to halt work this year for Pemex, contributing along with underinvestment in exploration to declining output.
“In one word, it is unsustainable,” Adriana Eraso, a Latin American corporate analyst at Fitch Ratings, said about Pemex’s strain under its debt load.
Neither Ms. Sheinbaum nor Mr. López Obrador responded to requests for comment. Pemex’s leadership also did not respond.
Hints emerged on the campaign trail of Ms. Sheinbaum’s energy plans before she won in a landslide in June. They include building solar plants, pushing Pemex into mining the lithium used in electric vehicle (E.V.) batteries and constructing charging infrastructure for E.V.s.
Ms. Sheinbaum has also proposed a cap on Pemex’s oil production, a change in course that would involve chipping away at one of modern Mexico’s foundational myths, dating to the country’s 1938 nationalization of its oil resources: that Mexico is an oil power, with oil at the core of the economy.
“When I talk to people in my social circle, they tend to believe Mexico continues to be an important oil-producing country,” said Adrián Duhalt, an energy expert at Rice University, citing relatives and friends who work at or have retired from Pemex. “That’s no longer the case when you look at the numbers.”
In the early decades of the 20th century, Mexico was the world’s largest oil exporter. But the country’s crude oil production plunged from 3.2 million barrels a day at the start of this century to about 1.5 million, largely reflecting underinvestment in exploration. While Mexico still exports some crude oil, the country must import everything from natural gas and diesel to jet fuel.
As a result, Mexico’s clout in global energy markets has dwindled as other countries in the Americas — the United States, Guyana and Brazil — rise in prominence. Mexico’s crude oil output is now dwarfed by that of the state of New Mexico, which alone produces two million barrels a day with a population about one-sixtieth the size of Mexico’s.
And yet, schoolchildren still learn about the nationalization of oil in textbooks. Monuments celebrate state control of the oil industry, and polls show broad resistance to any hint of privatizing Pemex. A national holiday on March 18 commemorates the day in 1938 when a leftist president took control of foreign-owned oil assets.
Mr. López Obrador adroitly embraced oil nationalism upon taking office in late 2018, casting attempts by the previous government to open the energy industry to meaningful foreign investment as a sellout.
Prioritizing fossil fuels, he publicly mocked wind turbines after his government canceled auctions for solar projects. His supporters point out political reasons for making such a huge bet on oil.
Octavio Romero, Pemex’s chief executive, contends that Mexico had to pursue costly refinery projects for national security reasons because of the country’s reliance on imports of refined fuels from the United States.
“What happens if for some reason, political or natural disaster-related, the ports for importing gasoline are closed?” Mr. Romero told reporters in April.
Still, the costs of propping up Pemex are climbing. Altogether, Mexican authorities have granted Pemex the staggering amount of at least $70 billion in relief in the form of capital injections and tax breaks since 2019, reflecting how Pemex has gone from providing the bulk of government revenues to requiring repeated bailouts.
Pemex, for its part, remains known for retaining privileges like its own country clubs, hospitals and schools. Some executives enjoy perks like enviable pensions and tuition reimbursement at private universities for their children.
Some argue that the government should withdraw its support for Pemex and let it default, contending that at the moment, the country’s relatively resilient economy could absorb the aftershocks.
Damian Fraser, a former country manager in Mexico for the Swiss banking giant UBS, said that if the authorities did not act now, a default by Pemex down the road could unleash economic chaos by raising borrowing costs for a constellation of companies in a country that has eclipsed China as the largest trading partner of the United States.
“If there is ever a time to let bondholders take a hit on Pemex, this might be it,” said Mr. Fraser, who now runs Miranda Partners, which advises companies on doing business in Mexico. “The government is mainly bailing out oil workers and Wall Street at the cost of expanding Mexico’s social programs.”
But for Ms. Sheinbaum — or any Mexican leader for that matter — withdrawing support for Pemex could also be extremely unpopular. So far, she has made it clear that she has no plans to let Pemex default, seeking instead to refinance Pemex’s debt in hopes of freeing up resources to shift toward clean energy sources.
Ms. Sheinbaum laid out some of her plans on March 18, the 86th anniversary of Mexico’s oil expropriation, framing them as a way to bolster Pemex, keep imported energy at a minimum and avoid increasing energy prices beyond inflation.
She said she would cap Pemex’s oil production at 1.8 million barrels a day, not far from what it is now producing, as a way of “decoupling” energy consumption from economic growth by focusing on clean energy and improvements in energy efficiency.
“The growth in demand must be absorbed by renewable energy sources,” Ms. Sheinbaum said.
Still, specifics remain sparse as to how Ms. Sheinbaum would carry out such a shift, especially at a time when her financial maneuvering room will be limited. Another legacy from Mr. López Obrador will be a budget deficit nearing 6 percent of gross domestic product, the largest shortfall in the past 24 years. Pemex’s debt alone stands at about an additional 6 percent of G.D.P.
The resource nationalism imbuing Mexican politics also raises questions as to how far Ms. Sheinbaum will be able to go in a country where oil remains central to national identity.
“People can’t really rally around lithium like they can around oil,” said Lisa Breglia, a scholar at George Mason University who specializes on Mexico’s oil industry. “Down to Mexico’s last drop of oil, people will still take to the streets.”
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The Influence of Nazi "Salon Kitty" on Modern Espionage and Political Vulnerabilities…
Happy Wednesday and best wishes for the health of you and your loved ones...
Firstly, we apologize for the delay in sending Saturday's reflections. The notes, which delve into the geopolitical situation sparking conflicts across all five continents, from territorial disputes to wars over fuels and rare earth elements, have demanded significant time.
Before we proceed, it's crucial to address the events that transpired this past Sunday, July 28, in Venezuela.
Throughout history, oppressed societies have found immense gratification in the toppling of a dictator's statue when they come to the limit. We witnessed this when the Poles took down Lenin's statue in 1990 and when the Iraqis toppled Saddam Hussein's statue in 2003. Overthrowing a despot's statue carries powerful symbolism and leaves an indelible mark on history. On Sunday night, the world witnessed the toppling of six statues in the land of Rómulo Gallegos, a significant event not seen in Latin America for many decades. This surge of resistance unequivocally signals that there will be no retreat from oppressors—inshallah.
A while back, there were plans to enroll in a contemporary literature course at the prestigious Complutense University of Madrid, Spain. The postgraduate program necessitated reading approximately ten books. While some of these required readings were explored, others – such as "I Am a Cat" by the Japanese author Soseki Natsume, born on February 9, 1867, in Babashita-chō – were left unexamined. The works of Natsume and Francesc Serés (born on December 22, 1972, in Zaidín, Spain) also offer deep insights and merit attention. Particularly relevant is Natsume's novel. Set in the Meiji period (1868–1912), it presents an unnamed cat as the intelligent narrator and protagonist who observes and critiques Japanese society and human nature. The cat embodies human fragility and highlights our aversion to self-reflection, which often leads to errors, especially in our actions and judgments. In truth, we tend to shy away from facing our reflections. "Russian Stories" is crucial for understanding the Kremlin's worldview from an anthropological, sociological, and political perspective.
The world is wild, infinitely so; yes, it's true…
Last week, we discussed the complex historical relationship between Russia and Ukraine, the rise of Jewish communities in both countries, Israel's neutral stance in the Eurasian conflict, as well as Russia's involvement in the Middle East war.
On January 29 of this year, the blog released an article titled (1) "The Intention to Trigger a Worldwide Conflict Should Be Readily Apparent." Why did Hamas decide to behave aggressively despite knowing how it would affect Palestinians, Israelis, and the global community? Why did Hamas choose to take actions that could worsen the situation for Palestinians, even though they were aware it would cause problems?
The Palestinian people have faced enduring hardships, often overshadowed by global political manoeuvres, and are still fighting for self-determination. Some analysts believe that because Hamas has few avenues for influence, they have adopted a daring strategy to gain attention and support from their community. However, this perspective is contested by those who argue that Hamas lacks a genuine commitment to the welfare of the Palestinian people.
(2) When examining the situation, it's essential to take into account the general lack of support for Palestinians in the Arab world. (3) This adds complexity to the geopolitical dynamics. In the context of the current geopolitical dynamics in the Arab world, it is notable that Israel and Morocco had a history of antagonism for 2,500 years until their formal normalization in December 2020, which was facilitated by the United States. Historically, Morocco has been a haven for Jews and a final resting place for numerous Jewish religious leaders. For centuries, Muslims and Jews have coexisted peacefully in Morocco, fostering a culture of peace, mutual respect, and care. This extensive shared cultural heritage has laid the foundation for a robust friendship between Morocco and Israel, with both nations now collaborating closely to forge a future marked by mutual understanding, harmony, and human advancement. The current relations between Israel and Morocco are unbeatable at this time, in trade or military intelligence.
For one to win, another must lose... such is the unyielding axiom...
In Greek mythology, Pegasus is often depicted as a splendid white stallion with wings. Myth states that Poseidon, the god of the sea and earthquakes, fathered Pegasus in his form as a horse god. Pegasus was born from the blood of Medusa, the formidable Gorgon, upon her beheading by the hero Perseus. Pegasus had a sibling named Chrysaor, who also sprang from Medusa's blood. Nevertheless, the Pegasus that has garnered current attention is a spyware created by an Israeli company, designed for discreet remote installation on iOS and Android devices. Although marketed as a tool to fight crime and terrorism, Pegasus has been extensively employed by governments for the surveillance of journalists, lawyers, political adversaries, and human rights activists.
The pact between Israel and Morocco has exacerbated already strained relations with Spain. On one side, the (4) Pegasus Affair, involving espionage on Spanish politicians' cellphones, has become a major issue. The European Parliament's inquiry committee reported on June 8, 2023, that Morocco spied on the mobile phones of Spanish officials including Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, Defense Minister Margarita Robles, and Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska. Additionally, there is a dispute over (5) rare minerals found in the Atlantic Ocean, about 500 kilometers from the Canary Islands at Tropic Seamount. This seamount, rising 3,000 meters from the ocean floor and located 1,000 meters beneath the water's surface, contains tellurium in concentrations 50,000 times greater than on land. The contention over the right to exploit this discovery has surfaced. While Spain seems the obvious choice, its claim to the underwater deposit has been compromised by sensitive information disclosed in phone calls intercepted by Spanish authorities, who were themselves targets of the Pegasus spyware.
Amidst the current upheaval, former President and presidential hopeful Donald Trump has strongly asserted that his failure to be elected in the upcoming November elections might precipitate a third world war. His language, often characterized by the media as bombastic and doomsday-like, exceeds even the tales of science fiction, reminiscent of Ray Bradbury's "The Exiles." In this instance, Mr. Trump's claims carry a certain significance.
Before delving into the primary focus of this note, it is imperative to analyze the unforeseen attack during complex ceasefire negotiations. Last Saturday afternoon, the launch of a Falaq-1 rocket by Hezbollah into Israeli territory led to the tragic deaths of 12 children and adolescents on a soccer field in the Druze town of Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights, northern Israel. This event is the deadliest attack on Israel since October 7. Why did this happen? It seems that certain elements favor escalating conflict over peace in the region, fully aware of Israel's probable response, particularly regarding the principle of retaliation.
Israel has expressed outrage following the unexpected attack. The Israeli military stated that its overnight strikes primarily targeted familiar sites in Lebanon, mainly near the Israeli border or around the southern port city of Tyre. A strike was also reported in the Bekaa Valley, approximately 60 miles north of the Israel-Lebanon border, targeting Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese group that has been attacking Israel alongside Hamas. Hezbollah has denied any involvement. Furthermore, Israeli military officials have confirmed that the launched projectile, the Falaq-1 rocket, originated from Iran. In response, Iran has openly warned that it will retaliate with equal force if Israel crosses any 'red lines'. The conflict in Lebanon has intensified markedly, casting a perilous and unpredictable shadow from Iran's direction. These lines were written on Sunday, today is Wednesday. The most important news are: "Ismail Haniyeh, a senior Hamas leader, was assassinated in Iran, as confirmed by the country’s Revolutionary Guards Corps and Hamas on Wednesday. The event marks a significant blow to the Palestinian group and raises the risk of further regional conflict. Hamas has accused Israel of the assassination of Mr. Haniyeh, who directed the group's political operations from his exile in Qatar. He was present in Tehran for the inauguration of Iran's newly elected president, a key supporter of Hamas." "Israel claims it killed a Hezbollah commander in an airstrike near Beirut. In response to a rocket attack on the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights, which resulted in the deaths of 12 children and teenagers on a soccer field and was attributed to Hezbollah, Israel conducted a lethal airstrike on a densely populated suburb of Beirut on Tuesday. The strike targeted Fuad Shukr, a senior official and close adviser to Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah. The information comes from three Israeli security officials who remained anonymous while discussing sensitive matters. The Israel Defense Forces later stated that their fighter jets had 'eliminated' Mr. Shukr, but without confirmation from Hezbollah, the claim remains unverified."
In conclusion, the forecasts made in this blog on January 29 of this year are regrettably coming to pass regarding this issue.
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President Vladimir Putin has warned that if NATO nations supply Ukraine with strategic weapons, it could lead to missiles being positioned near European borders. Furthermore, recent reports suggest that Russia is exploiting its invasion of Ukraine.
Given the present global geopolitical situation, the relationship that former President Donald Trump has with Israel and Russia could have an impact. As for Iran, it seems that neither the United States nor any other nation has the ability to exert control over it.
Today's headline in the area reads: "Russia hits Kyiv with massive drone barrage."
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Open Indo-Pacific Conflict
(6) The Taiwan Strait conflict, often sidelined by discussions of global politics, remains a critical concern for the United States, China, and Taiwan's neighboring countries. Taiwan has operated independently of mainland China since 1949. Despite China's commitment to the one-China policy, which views Taiwan as a part of its territory, Taiwan's practical independence brings its sovereign status into question. The possibility of a conflict in Taiwan, reminiscent of the situation following Russia's incursion into Ukraine, has escalated concerns. The ongoing strain on U.S.-China relations adds to the complexity of the issue. President Xi Jinping's assertive stance on reunification has intensified the instability in the Indo-Pacific region, forcing nations to declare their positions explicitly.
“China’s president Xi Jinping has paid tribute to Henry Kissinger’s role in reshaping the relationship between China and the United States half a century ago. In a message of condolence to US president Joe Biden, Mr Xi said Dr Kissinger, who has died aged 100, would be remembered for his “continued sage advice” about relations between the two great powers. “Dr Henry Kissinger was a world-renowned strategist, as well as an old friend and good friend of the Chinese people,” he said. “He made it his lifelong pursuit to promote the development of China-US relations and enhance the friendship between the two peoples. Kissinger’s name will forever be associated with China-US relations.” Dr Kissinger visited China more than 100 times, most recently last May when he met Mr Xi and other senior officials. His secret visit to Beijing in 1971 paved the way for the normalisation of relations that followed Richard Nixon’s visit the following year.
https://www.irishtimes.com/world/us/2023/11/30/henry-kissinger-reshaped-relationship-between-china-and-us-says-xi-jinping/
In the current climate of global geopolitical tensions, former President Donald Trump, like any U.S. administration, has limited options regarding China. Kissinger has cautioned against an inadequate or misguided strategy towards a formidable China.
“Kissinger warns of 'colossal' dangers in US-China tensions/Strains with China are "the biggest problem for America, the biggest problem for the world," Kissinger told the McCain Institute's Sedona Forum on global issues. "Because if we can't solve that, then the risk is that all over the world a kind of cold war will develop between China and the United States."
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210430-kissinger-warns-of-colossal-dangers-in-us-china-tensions
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The Man Who Loved Fireworks...
(7) North and South Korea’s Shared Past and Divergent Future…
Gunpowder, often associated with fireworks and celebrations in various cultures, takes on a darker role in North Korea, where it's used to develop long-range nuclear missiles. This practice seriously threatens neighbouring countries like South Korea and Japan. The relationship between North and South Korea is fraught with complexity and marked by a history of tension and complex negotiations. Japan embraced pacifism after the atomic bombings of Nagasaki and Hiroshima in August 1945, events that forever changed the course of warfare and international diplomacy. The country's stance on warfare and its aftermath have shaped global military ethics. The enduring question is whether the lessons of these events have been heeded. Regrettably, it seems that humanity has not fully learned from these past tragedies, as evidenced by the tension each time North Korea launches missiles and how South Korea and Japan must alert their populations with alarms. What life ...
Former President Donald Trump has described his connection with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un as deep and captivating. He has mentioned receiving letters of great affection from "Rocket Man." On June 10, Kim expressed his belief that their (8) "deep and special friendship will serve as a magical force," referring to their correspondence as "letters of love," according to transcripts from two letters reported by CNN. Additionally, Kim sent his best wishes for Trump's 73rd birthday, calling it the ideal age for wisdom. This message suggests that the former president has a strong position now, possibly even stronger than before. Why is that? (9) Following President Vladimir Putin's visit to North Korea on June 19, which was marked by "grandeur, gifts, and performances," it is clear that the dynamic between "Kim and Donald" has evolved into a triangle of affection that includes "Kim, Donald, and Vladimir," reflecting the motto of the Paris Olympics, "Games Wide Open".
Soseki Natsume's nameless cat could be seen as being in an asylum, which leads one to ponder humanity's madness and how we self-destruct. Understanding this complex situation requires a global collective effort, and all parties must be willing to compromise, which is quite challenging.
Last but not least, thanks to Elon Musk for the strong support of the democratic forces in Venezuela in such a difficult time.
Image: Politico EUThe fierce geopolitical disputes over the highly coveted "Tellurium" are known as "Metallum Complicatum."
In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy CentralTellurium crucial role in advancing renewable energy
As the effects of climate change intensify, the need for sustainable energy solutions has significantly increased, creating a growing demand for renewable and eco-friendly energy sources. Consequently, tellurium, a rare, often underestimated element, is becoming increasingly important in driving innovation in sustainable energy. A metalloid found in scarce amounts in the Earth's crust, tellurium's unique properties make it highly valuable for various industrial applications. Its most significant impact is on sustainable energy technologies, which are crucial for turning the vision of renewable energy into tangible progress.
Unlocking the Potential of Tellurium in Solar Photovoltaic Cells
Tellurium is essential for improving the efficiency of solar photovoltaic (PV) cells, particularly in cadmium telluride (CdTe) thin-film solar cells. These cells are valued for their cost-effectiveness and superior performance, especially in low-light conditions. By harnessing tellurium's properties, CdTe solar cells are solid alternatives to traditional silicon-based cells, helping promote the broader adoption of solar energy.
Enhancing Energy Storage Solutions
Energy storage is crucial to a sustainable energy ecosystem, and tellurium plays a significant role in this field. Batteries using tellurium-based materials show potential for substantial improvements in energy storage systems. Because these materials can enhance battery efficiency, prolong lifespan, and increase storage capacity, they are essential for integrating renewable energy sources and stabilizing the power grid.
Advancements in Thermoelectric Devices
Tellurium's impressive thermoelectric properties are producing advancements in thermoelectric devices. These devices can convert waste heat into electrical energy, offering significant potential for industries that produce large amounts of heat. By harnessing tellurium's abilities, researchers and engineers are creating more efficient and eco-friendly systems for waste heat recovery, contributing to the sustainable energy movement.
In summary, in the global effort to combat climate change and transition to sustainable energy, tellurium has emerged as a crucial element driving innovation in sustainable energy technologies. Its significant role in improving solar cell efficiency, advancing energy storage solutions, and enabling efficient waste heat recovery has propelled the renewable energy sector to new heights. Tellurium has valuable potential in the pursuit of sustainability, empowering humanity to tap into renewable energy's vast potential and adopt a more eco-friendly and conscientious approach to energy usage.
Inside Salon Kitty…
The newly reconstructed Salon Kitty, emerging from the remnants of its original structure, serves as a tribute to its historical significance in the aftermath of World War II. Ullstein's picture. Source: MediaIt is fascinating to consider that the concept of clandestine technology espionage, possibly developed by the Nazis, may have inspired the creation of Pegasus Software. The spyware, developed by an Israeli cyber-arms firm and released in 2011, is notorious for targeting devices that exploit political vulnerabilities.
Located in an affluent Berlin neighbourhood, Salon Kitty started as a conventional brothel in the early 1930s. However, during World War II, it was converted into a sophisticated espionage centre the Nazis used to gather intelligence from foreign visitors and to identify disloyal Germans. Katharina Zammit, also known as Kitty Schmidt, was Salon Kitty's proprietor. Attempting to escape Germany in 1938, she was apprehended at the Dutch border and brought before Walter Schellenberg, a member of the Nazi intelligence organization, the Sicherheitsdienst (SD). Schellenberg and SS General Reinhard Heydrich gave Schmidt a choice: collaborate or be sent to a concentration camp. The Nazis let Schmidt continue Salon Kitty operating so long as she employed 20 additional prostitutes selected for Nazi clientele and allowed concealed microphones to be installed across the premises, together with a surveillance room in the cellar.
Walter Schellenberg (left) and Reinhard Heydrich, Wikimedia Commons.To recruit the additional prostitutes, Schellenberg distributed a document to Nazi administrative offices in Berlin, searching for intelligent, patriotic, multilingual women. Once the 20 women had been selected for Salon Kitty's specialized group, operations commenced at the beginning of 1940. While these women were not informed about the microphones, they were trained to recognize military uniforms. They were tasked with accompanying high-ranking officials and foreign diplomats to bedrooms and providing relaxation, serving alcohol, and engaging in intimate encounters. Using the concealed microphones, a Nazi officer in the basement would listen in and record all activities. Using these methods, Nazi intelligence monitored Nazis suspected of disloyalty.
Nevertheless, reports of such encounters are now rare. Sources claim that the son-in-law and foreign minister of Italian dictator Benito Mussolini visited and were recorded joking about Hitler, referring to him as a little clown. The operation yielded around 25,000 recordings, but most were discarded, as they were useless. The operation ceased in July 1942 when a British air raid demolished Salon Kitty. By that time, the (SD) had abandoned the project, deeming it unproductive. Nonetheless, intelligence gathered from Salon Kitty contributed to thwarting a potential Spanish takeover of Gibraltar.
Madam Schmidt later reestablished Salon Kitty at a new location, operating it as a traditional brothel until her death in 1954 at the age of 72.
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Artistic creations by Germán & Co represent a fusion of distinct talents and viewpoints, culminating in the production of original and enthralling works of art...Happy Wednesday and best wishes for the health of you and your loved ones...
Firstly, we apologize for the delay in sending Saturday's reflections. The notes, which delve into the geopolitical situation sparking conflicts across all five continents, from territorial disputes to wars over fuels and rare earth elements, have demanded significant time.
Before we proceed, it's crucial to address the events that transpired this past Sunday, July 28, in Venezuela. Throughout history, oppressed societies have found immense gratification in the toppling of a dictator's statue when they come to the limit. We witnessed this when the Poles took down Lenin's statue in 1990 and when the Iraqis toppled Saddam Hussein's statue in 2003. Overthrowing a despot's statue carries powerful symbolism and leaves an indelible mark on history. On Sunday night, the world witnessed the toppling of six statues in the land of Rómulo Gallegos, a significant event not seen in Latin America for many decades. This surge of resistance unequivocally signals that there will be no retreat from oppressors—inshallah.
A while back, there were plans to enroll in a contemporary literature course at the prestigious Complutense University of Madrid, Spain. The postgraduate program necessitated reading approximately ten books. While some of these required readings were explored, others – such as "I Am a Cat" by the Japanese author Soseki Natsume, born on February 9, 1867, in Babashita-chō – were left unexamined. The works of Natsume and Francesc Serés (born on December 22, 1972, in Zaidín, Spain) also offer deep insights and merit attention. Particularly relevant is Natsume's novel. Set in the Meiji period (1868–1912), it presents an unnamed cat as the intelligent narrator and protagonist who observes and critiques Japanese society and human nature. The cat embodies human fragility and highlights our aversion to self-reflection, which often leads to errors, especially in our actions and judgments. In truth, we tend to shy away from facing our reflections. "Russian Stories" is crucial for understanding the Kremlin's worldview from an anthropological, sociological, and political perspective.
The world is wild, infinitely so; yes, it's true…
Last week, we discussed the complex historical relationship between Russia and Ukraine, the rise of Jewish communities in both countries, Israel's neutral stance in the Eurasian conflict, as well as Russia's involvement in the Middle East war.
On January 29 of this year, the blog released an article titled (1) "The Intention to Trigger a Worldwide Conflict Should Be Readily Apparent." Why did Hamas decide to behave aggressively despite knowing how it would affect Palestinians, Israelis, and the global community? Why did Hamas choose to take actions that could worsen the situation for Palestinians, even though they were aware it would cause problems?
The Palestinian people have faced enduring hardships, often overshadowed by global political manoeuvres, and are still fighting for self-determination. Some analysts believe that because Hamas has few avenues for influence, they have adopted a daring strategy to gain attention and support from their community. However, this perspective is contested by those who argue that Hamas lacks a genuine commitment to the welfare of the Palestinian people.
(2) When examining the situation, it's essential to take into account the general lack of support for Palestinians in the Arab world. (3) This adds complexity to the geopolitical dynamics. In the context of the current geopolitical dynamics in the Arab world, it is notable that Israel and Morocco had a history of antagonism for 2,500 years until their formal normalization in December 2020, which was facilitated by the United States. Historically, Morocco has been a haven for Jews and a final resting place for numerous Jewish religious leaders. For centuries, Muslims and Jews have coexisted peacefully in Morocco, fostering a culture of peace, mutual respect, and care. This extensive shared cultural heritage has laid the foundation for a robust friendship between Morocco and Israel, with both nations now collaborating closely to forge a future marked by mutual understanding, harmony, and human advancement. The current relations between Israel and Morocco are unbeatable at this time, in trade or military intelligence.
For one to win, another must lose... such is the unyielding axiom...
In Greek mythology, Pegasus is often depicted as a splendid white stallion with wings. Myth states that Poseidon, the god of the sea and earthquakes, fathered Pegasus in his form as a horse god. Pegasus was born from the blood of Medusa, the formidable Gorgon, upon her beheading by the hero Perseus. Pegasus had a sibling named Chrysaor, who also sprang from Medusa's blood. Nevertheless, the Pegasus that has garnered current attention is a spyware created by an Israeli company, designed for discreet remote installation on iOS and Android devices. Although marketed as a tool to fight crime and terrorism, Pegasus has been extensively employed by governments for the surveillance of journalists, lawyers, political adversaries, and human rights activists.
The pact between Israel and Morocco has exacerbated already strained relations with Spain. On one side, the (4) Pegasus Affair, involving espionage on Spanish politicians' cellphones, has become a major issue. The European Parliament's inquiry committee reported on June 8, 2023, that Morocco spied on the mobile phones of Spanish officials including Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, Defense Minister Margarita Robles, and Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska. Additionally, there is a dispute over (5) rare minerals found in the Atlantic Ocean, about 500 kilometers from the Canary Islands at Tropic Seamount. This seamount, rising 3,000 meters from the ocean floor and located 1,000 meters beneath the water's surface, contains tellurium in concentrations 50,000 times greater than on land. The contention over the right to exploit this discovery has surfaced. While Spain seems the obvious choice, its claim to the underwater deposit has been compromised by sensitive information disclosed in phone calls intercepted by Spanish authorities, who were themselves targets of the Pegasus spyware.
Amidst the current upheaval, former President and presidential hopeful Donald Trump has strongly asserted that his failure to be elected in the upcoming November elections might precipitate a third world war. His language, often characterized by the media as bombastic and doomsday-like, exceeds even the tales of science fiction, reminiscent of Ray Bradbury's "The Exiles." In this instance, Mr. Trump's claims carry a certain significance.
Before delving into the primary focus of this note, it is imperative to analyze the unforeseen attack during complex ceasefire negotiations. Last Saturday afternoon, the launch of a Falaq-1 rocket by Hezbollah into Israeli territory led to the tragic deaths of 12 children and adolescents on a soccer field in the Druze town of Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights, northern Israel. This event is the deadliest attack on Israel since October 7. Why did this happen? It seems that certain elements favor escalating conflict over peace in the region, fully aware of Israel's probable response, particularly regarding the principle of retaliation.
Israel has expressed outrage following the unexpected attack. The Israeli military stated that its overnight strikes primarily targeted familiar sites in Lebanon, mainly near the Israeli border or around the southern port city of Tyre. A strike was also reported in the Bekaa Valley, approximately 60 miles north of the Israel-Lebanon border, targeting Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese group that has been attacking Israel alongside Hamas. Hezbollah has denied any involvement. Furthermore, Israeli military officials have confirmed that the launched projectile, the Falaq-1 rocket, originated from Iran. In response, Iran has openly warned that it will retaliate with equal force if Israel crosses any 'red lines'. The conflict in Lebanon has intensified markedly, casting a perilous and unpredictable shadow from Iran's direction. These lines were written on Sunday, today is Wednesday. The most important news are: "Ismail Haniyeh, a senior Hamas leader, was assassinated in Iran, as confirmed by the country’s Revolutionary Guards Corps and Hamas on Wednesday. The event marks a significant blow to the Palestinian group and raises the risk of further regional conflict. Hamas has accused Israel of the assassination of Mr. Haniyeh, who directed the group's political operations from his exile in Qatar. He was present in Tehran for the inauguration of Iran's newly elected president, a key supporter of Hamas." "Israel claims it killed a Hezbollah commander in an airstrike near Beirut. In response to a rocket attack on the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights, which resulted in the deaths of 12 children and teenagers on a soccer field and was attributed to Hezbollah, Israel conducted a lethal airstrike on a densely populated suburb of Beirut on Tuesday. The strike targeted Fuad Shukr, a senior official and close adviser to Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah. The information comes from three Israeli security officials who remained anonymous while discussing sensitive matters. The Israel Defense Forces later stated that their fighter jets had 'eliminated' Mr. Shukr, but without confirmation from Hezbollah, the claim remains unverified."
In conclusion, the forecasts made in this blog on January 29 of this year are regrettably coming to pass regarding this issue.
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President Vladimir Putin has warned that if NATO nations supply Ukraine with strategic weapons, it could lead to missiles being positioned near European borders. Furthermore, recent reports suggest that Russia is exploiting its invasion of Ukraine.
Given the present global geopolitical situation, the relationship that former President Donald Trump has with Israel and Russia could have an impact. As for Iran, it seems that neither the United States nor any other nation has the ability to exert control over it.
Today's headline in the area reads: "Russia hits Kyiv with massive drone barrage."
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Open Indo-Pacific Conflict
(6) The Taiwan Strait conflict, often sidelined by discussions of global politics, remains a critical concern for the United States, China, and Taiwan's neighboring countries. Taiwan has operated independently of mainland China since 1949. Despite China's commitment to the one-China policy, which views Taiwan as a part of its territory, Taiwan's practical independence brings its sovereign status into question. The possibility of a conflict in Taiwan, reminiscent of the situation following Russia's incursion into Ukraine, has escalated concerns. The ongoing strain on U.S.-China relations adds to the complexity of the issue. President Xi Jinping's assertive stance on reunification has intensified the instability in the Indo-Pacific region, forcing nations to declare their positions explicitly.
“China’s president Xi Jinping has paid tribute to Henry Kissinger’s role in reshaping the relationship between China and the United States half a century ago. In a message of condolence to US president Joe Biden, Mr Xi said Dr Kissinger, who has died aged 100, would be remembered for his “continued sage advice” about relations between the two great powers. “Dr Henry Kissinger was a world-renowned strategist, as well as an old friend and good friend of the Chinese people,” he said. “He made it his lifelong pursuit to promote the development of China-US relations and enhance the friendship between the two peoples. Kissinger’s name will forever be associated with China-US relations.” Dr Kissinger visited China more than 100 times, most recently last May when he met Mr Xi and other senior officials. His secret visit to Beijing in 1971 paved the way for the normalisation of relations that followed Richard Nixon’s visit the following year.
https://www.irishtimes.com/world/us/2023/11/30/henry-kissinger-reshaped-relationship-between-china-and-us-says-xi-jinping/
In the current climate of global geopolitical tensions, former President Donald Trump, like any U.S. administration, has limited options regarding China. Kissinger has cautioned against an inadequate or misguided strategy towards a formidable China.
“Kissinger warns of 'colossal' dangers in US-China tensions/Strains with China are "the biggest problem for America, the biggest problem for the world," Kissinger told the McCain Institute's Sedona Forum on global issues. "Because if we can't solve that, then the risk is that all over the world a kind of cold war will develop between China and the United States."
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210430-kissinger-warns-of-colossal-dangers-in-us-china-tensions
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The Man Who Loved Fireworks...
(7) North and South Korea’s Shared Past and Divergent Future…
Gunpowder, often associated with fireworks and celebrations in various cultures, takes on a darker role in North Korea, where it's used to develop long-range nuclear missiles. This practice seriously threatens neighbouring countries like South Korea and Japan. The relationship between North and South Korea is fraught with complexity and marked by a history of tension and complex negotiations. Japan embraced pacifism after the atomic bombings of Nagasaki and Hiroshima in August 1945, events that forever changed the course of warfare and international diplomacy. The country's stance on warfare and its aftermath have shaped global military ethics. The enduring question is whether the lessons of these events have been heeded. Regrettably, it seems that humanity has not fully learned from these past tragedies, as evidenced by the tension each time North Korea launches missiles and how South Korea and Japan must alert their populations with alarms. What life ...
Former President Donald Trump has described his connection with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un as deep and captivating. He has mentioned receiving letters of great affection from "Rocket Man." On June 10, Kim expressed his belief that their (8) "deep and special friendship will serve as a magical force," referring to their correspondence as "letters of love," according to transcripts from two letters reported by CNN. Additionally, Kim sent his best wishes for Trump's 73rd birthday, calling it the ideal age for wisdom. This message suggests that the former president has a strong position now, possibly even stronger than before. Why is that? (9) Following President Vladimir Putin's visit to North Korea on June 19, which was marked by "grandeur, gifts, and performances," it is clear that the dynamic between "Kim and Donald" has evolved into a triangle of affection that includes "Kim, Donald, and Vladimir," reflecting the motto of the Paris Olympics, "Games Wide Open".
Soseki Natsume's nameless cat could be seen as being in an asylum, which leads one to ponder humanity's madness and how we self-destruct. Understanding this complex situation requires a global collective effort, and all parties must be willing to compromise, which is quite challenging.
Last but not least, thanks to Elon Musk for the strong support of the democratic forces in Venezuela in such a difficult time.
Beijing has already prohibited exports of rare earth refining and magnet manufacturing technologies. Source: POLITICO EUPrecious rare earth metals belong to the state, China declares
Beijing’s hold on the coveted resources has long been seen as a threat to Western clean power and tech supply chains…
POLITICO EU, by Gabriel Gavin, June 30, 2024.The Chinese government has introduced a slew of new measures designed to tighten its grip on lucrative natural resources used in everything from electric cars to wind turbines.
In a list released by the country's State Council on Saturday, Beijing declared that rare earth metals are the property of the state and warned "no organization or person may encroach on or destroy rare-earth resources."
From Oct. 1, when the rules come into force, the government will operate a rare earth traceability database to ensure it can control the extraction, use and export of the metals. China currently produces around 60 percent of the world's rare earth metals, and is the origin of around 90 percent of refined rare earths on the market.
Beijing has already prohibited exports of rare earth refining and magnet manufacturing technologies. In January, it banned the export of gallium and germanium, both highly sought after by the computer-chip industry.
Fears that China is looking to exert control over the industry, and could disrupt critical technology, automotive and renewable energy supply chains, have sparked a race to shore up supplies from alternative suppliers. Both the U.S. and the EU have launched efforts to procure rare earths at home and abroad, including in Vietnam, Brazil and Australia.
A year ago, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced construction of the first large-scale rare earth refinery outside of Asia, located in Estonia. She said the move would "bolster European resilience and security of supply."
A 2022 analysis from the European Parliament warned that over-reliance on monopolistic suppliers was a major risk for Europe. "The EU imports 93 percent of its magnesium from China, 98 percent of its borate from Turkey, and 85 percent of its niobium from Brazil. Russia produces 40 percent of the world's palladium," it said. "The latter is a reminder of the strategic implications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the need for the EU to prepare for an increasingly uncertain world."
The EU has launched a probe into anti-competitive trading allegations against the Chinese electric vehicle market, which benefits from heavy government subsidies and preferential access to essential rare earth metals. Earlier this month, the two sides agreed they would host consultations in order to try and resolve the standoff.
If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.
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"Drill, baby, drill": The American fossil fuel surge could risk a downturn in Europe...
"Drill, baby, drill": The American fossil fuel surge could risk a downturn in Europe...
Both Trump and Biden are championing profitable U.S. fossil fuel agreements, a risky move given the EU's plans to diminish its dependence on such energy sources. "The Dark Day: Europe's Energy Crisis Revealed" implies that history might be on the verge of repeating itself, signaling a critical juncture for the energy industry of the increasingly fragile continent. Meanwhile, "The Delicate Balancing Act of Political Reckoning" alludes to the unforeseeable consequences of sensitive political matters. In the realm of politics, certain issues are so sensitive that they can trigger turmoil within a nation's social and political fabric.
“Happy Sabbath! Wishing you and your family the best of health and happiness…
Woody Guthrie's "This Land Is Your Land" celebrates America's beauty and diversity despite the country's actual reality…
Far away, to be a surprise...
The attempt at former President Donald Trump's life in Pennsylvania last Saturday is indeed a stark reminder of the ongoing violence in the United States. The country has a long history of attacks on both prominent figures and innocent civilians in various public places like schools, nightclubs, and shopping centers. These tragic events continue to highlight the deep divisions within the nation, casting a somber shadow over its landscape. Woody Guthrie's "This Land Is Your Land" paints a picture of America's beauty and diversity, but it can feel like an idealized vision compared to the current reality. The contrast between the song's hopeful message and the persistent violence is indeed striking.
Last Saturday, our discussion centered on Hemingway's portrayal of aging as an unavoidable passage, a theme that recurs in his literature, in relation to the health status of President Joe Biden. The metaphor of the brain turning from blue to grey in the twilight of life to reflect weariness and fatigue is quite poignant. The fear of vulnerability and isolation is amplified by age, making decisions incredibly challenging, that’s life. In "The Old Man and the Sea," published in 1952 and awarded the 1953 Pulitzer Prize, Hemingway depicts a lonely, aged fisherman grappling with the vast ocean.This conflict is bound to escalate into a perilous situation when it moves into the volatile environment of the "Situation Room" in one of the world's most influential nations.
In summary, the text discusses the challenges of influencing the internal dynamics of individual nations while recognizing the interconnectedness of the global community. The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 symbolized the end of the Cold War, a period marked by tension and conflict. While some saw the event as a “positive” development that allowed for the sharing of wealth with previously oppressed populations, others noted that it also led to new divisions based on ideologies and power struggles. Additionally, religion has emerged as a significant factor in contemporary global conflicts. It is indeed a bit disheartening to think that the ideals expressed in "This Land Is Your Land" might not fully align with today's reality.
As I conclude the analysis, a notification pops up on my computer screen, announcing the regrettable yet anticipated assassination attempt of former President Donald Trump. The nominee of the Republican Party has become even stronger following recent events, while President Joe Biden, recovering from a bout of COVID, appears increasingly vulnerable. Despite this, and the persistence often associated with age, he has not shown any intention of stepping down. Today, the New Yorker released an article stating, "Doctors Are Increasingly Worried About Biden," where nine physicians expressed concerns that President Biden's symptoms may surpass a typical age-related decline. Concurrently, another article emphasized, "The Presidential Race Is in Uncharted Territory, but It’s Clear Who’s Winning." CNN's Harry Enten suggested that Donald Trump is likely to win unless there are significant changes in the race, while pollster Ann Selzer discussed the methodology behind polling knowledge. Now, the million-dollar question is: what will happen with Ukraine and Europe?
The history of Ukraine represents a multifaceted process of disengagement from Russia…
The world is currently facing one of the most severe war scenarios since the end of World War II. Ukraine's current boundaries and identity have been shaped by centuries of conflict and cultural exchange. The roots of this relationship trace back to the Kyivan Rus, a medieval state that is considered the cultural and historical foundation for both Ukraine and Russia. Over the centuries, Ukraine has been divided and ruled by various powers, including the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union. Ukraine's history is indeed complex and deeply intertwined with Russia. The region has seen periods of independence and foreign domination, particularly by Russia. So, the strategic significance of the conflict in Ukraine is immense, and neither Russia nor Ukraine is likely to achieve a decisive victory, making a resolution seem unattainable. Understanding the Jewish roots in both Russia and Ukraine is crucial, as these communities have deep historical ties dating back over a thousand years. Jewish communities have existed in Ukraine since the time of the Kievan Rus' and have contributed significantly to cultural and religious movements such as Hasidism and Zionism. Similarly, Jewish communities in Russia have a long and complex history, marked by periods of both flourishing and persecution. During the 1970s and 1980s, the Russian Jewish community was the only minority group in the Soviet Union allowed to emigrate to Israel or, in some cases, the United States. This unique opportunity was influenced by several factors, including political and social considerations, the community's economic influence in the black market, international pressures, and changes in the Soviet Union's stance on Jewish emigration.
Art work by Germán & CoBoth Trump and Biden are advocating for profitable U.S. fossil fuel agreements—a gamble considering the EU's intention to reduce its reliance on such energy sources. (1) "The Dark Day: Europe's Energy Crisis Revealed" suggests history may repeat itself, marking a dire moment for the energy sector of the aging, vulnerable continent. "The Delicate Balancing Act of Political Reckoning" refers to the unpredictable outcomes of sensitive political issues. In politics, certain topics are so delicate that they can cause upheaval within the social and political structure of a country.
(1) https://www.germantoroghio.com/blog-1-2/wltpflwya644ltd-9xgre-f9l3k-74tkd-tn6zx-w7shk-fbxaj-6sytt-9lekr-dk72t-krxf3-tm445-b7hj8-p962c-5z4l3-nntza-dywdz-xhf24-dxjl5-h6lly-jx95h-dalp4-6zlrk-fmre6-7zbng
“Happy Sabbath! Wishing you and your family the best of health and happiness…
Woody Guthrie's "This Land Is Your Land" celebrates America's beauty and diversity despite the country's actual reality…
Far away, to be a surprise...
The attempt at former President Donald Trump's life in Pennsylvania last Saturday is indeed a stark reminder of the ongoing violence in the United States. The country has a long history of attacks on both prominent figures and innocent civilians in various public places like schools, nightclubs, and shopping centers. These tragic events continue to highlight the deep divisions within the nation, casting a somber shadow over its landscape. Woody Guthrie's "This Land Is Your Land" paints a picture of America's beauty and diversity, but it can feel like an idealized vision compared to the current reality. The contrast between the song's hopeful message and the persistent violence is indeed striking.
Last Saturday, our discussion centered on Hemingway's portrayal of aging as an unavoidable passage, a theme that recurs in his literature, in relation to the health status of President Joe Biden. The metaphor of the brain turning from blue to grey in the twilight of life to reflect weariness and fatigue is quite poignant. The fear of vulnerability and isolation is amplified by age, making decisions incredibly challenging, that’s life. In "The Old Man and the Sea," published in 1952 and awarded the 1953 Pulitzer Prize, Hemingway depicts a lonely, aged fisherman grappling with the vast ocean.This conflict is bound to escalate into a perilous situation when it moves into the volatile environment of the "Situation Room" in one of the world's most influential nations.
In summary, the text discusses the challenges of influencing the internal dynamics of individual nations while recognizing the interconnectedness of the global community. The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 symbolized the end of the Cold War, a period marked by tension and conflict. While some saw the event as a “positive” development that allowed for the sharing of wealth with previously oppressed populations, others noted that it also led to new divisions based on ideologies and power struggles. Additionally, religion has emerged as a significant factor in contemporary global conflicts. It is indeed a bit disheartening to think that the ideals expressed in "This Land Is Your Land" might not fully align with today's reality.
As I conclude the analysis, a notification pops up on my computer screen, announcing the regrettable yet anticipated assassination attempt of former President Donald Trump. The nominee of the Republican Party has become even stronger following recent events, while President Joe Biden, recovering from a bout of COVID, appears increasingly vulnerable. Despite this, and the persistence often associated with age, he has not shown any intention of stepping down. Today, the New Yorker released an article stating, "Doctors Are Increasingly Worried About Biden," where nine physicians expressed concerns that President Biden's symptoms may surpass a typical age-related decline. Concurrently, another article emphasized, "The Presidential Race Is in Uncharted Territory, but It’s Clear Who’s Winning." CNN's Harry Enten suggested that Donald Trump is likely to win unless there are significant changes in the race, while pollster Ann Selzer discussed the methodology behind polling knowledge. Now, the million-dollar question is: what will happen with Ukraine and Europe?
The history of Ukraine represents a multifaceted process of disengagement from Russia…
The world is currently facing one of the most severe war scenarios since the end of World War II. Ukraine's current boundaries and identity have been shaped by centuries of conflict and cultural exchange. The roots of this relationship trace back to the Kyivan Rus, a medieval state that is considered the cultural and historical foundation for both Ukraine and Russia. Over the centuries, Ukraine has been divided and ruled by various powers, including the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union. Ukraine's history is indeed complex and deeply intertwined with Russia. The region has seen periods of independence and foreign domination, particularly by Russia. So, the strategic significance of the conflict in Ukraine is immense, and neither Russia nor Ukraine is likely to achieve a decisive victory, making a resolution seem unattainable. Understanding the Jewish roots in both Russia and Ukraine is crucial, as these communities have deep historical ties dating back over a thousand years. Jewish communities have existed in Ukraine since the time of the Kievan Rus' and have contributed significantly to cultural and religious movements such as Hasidism and Zionism. Similarly, Jewish communities in Russia have a long and complex history, marked by periods of both flourishing and persecution. During the 1970s and 1980s, the Russian Jewish community was the only minority group in the Soviet Union allowed to emigrate to Israel or, in some cases, the United States. This unique opportunity was influenced by several factors, including political and social considerations, the community's economic influence in the black market, international pressures, and changes in the Soviet Union's stance on Jewish emigration.
Israel has maintained a neutral stance in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, while Russia has also taken a neutral position in the Israel-Palestine conflict. This mutual neutrality helps both countries navigate their complex international relationships. On the other hand, the Russian Orthodox Church has played a significant role in supporting the Kremlin during the conflict with Ukraine. Led by Patriarch Kirill, the Church has provided moral and ideological backing for the war, framing it as a defense of the "Russian World" and aligning closely with the Kremlin's narratives. This support has been evident in sermons and public statements that justify the conflict and promote a unified Russian identity.
(2) In 1979, Andrei Tarkovsky, one of the few Russian intellectuals granted exile by the Communist regime, released his film Stalker, which was filmed in the post-industrial wasteland of *Estonia. The film seems to eerily predict the Chernobyl nuclear disaster of 1986, which led to the formation of an exclusion zone around Pripyat, Ukraine. The Chernobyl disaster had profound social and environmental impacts. The explosion released large amounts of radioactive material, leading to long-term health issues, environmental contamination not only in Ukraine but also in much of Europe, and the displacement of thousands of people.
The ongoing conflict with Russian-backed separatists in the Donbas region continues to shape Ukraine's political landscape. This prolonged struggle has caused significant economic damage, social disruption, and environmental harm, deeply affecting the country's political and religious leadership.
Concerns about a scenario similar to the Yalta Conference of February 4-11, 1945, where the leaders of the US, UK, and Soviet Union discussed the postwar reorganization of Germany and Europe, facilitating the end of the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine, are unfounded. The objective answer is no, primarily due to China's significant influence in the new geopolitical order. Many countries in the region fear a potential repetition of history with a "second Yalta," where the *US and Russia make deals supposedly at their expense.
The phrase "This land is your land, this land is my land" from Woody Guthrie's song emphasizes the idea of collective ownership and inclusivity, celebrating the beauty and shared responsibility of the land. However, this sense of unity and belonging is starkly contrasted by the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, where territorial disputes and geopolitical tensions have led to significant strife and division.
(2) https://energycentral.com/c/og/tarkovsky-1986
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Andrés Gluski, President and CEO of AES Corporation.“We do not inherit the earth from our parents, we borrow it from our children.”
―Antoine De Saint-Exupery
“Renewable energy is growing rapidly in the US. The recent merger between Power and AES's clean energy business boosts our ability to assist clients in their energy transition. Our combined entity manages 2.5 GW of assets, with 2.6 GW backlog and 12 GW in projects. Join our team dedicated to solving complex energy challenges and transitioning to a carbon-free grid.
In our quest for cleaner energy, we offer various innovative solutions through our sPower partnership, aiding customers in transitioning to 100% renewable energy consumption. The projects like Pleinmont Solar I and II in Virginia underline our commitment to sustainability and impact on the environment. Our collaboration with Microsoft on a 300 MW solar energy initiative further supports clients in reaching their green objectives.
AES partnered with KIUC for a solar + storage solution, setting a new standard in renewable energy, supporting Hawaii's 2045 goal. Ready to help Microsoft and more with eco-friendly energy solutions, as mentioned by Andrés Gluski, AES's President and CEO.
TU.S. companies are already planning a pivot away from Europe. Image: Germán & Co via Shutterstock‘Drill, baby, drill’: America’s fossil fuel boom risks bust in Europe
Both Trump and Biden are pushing lucrative U.S. fossil fuel deals — a risky bet given the EU’s plans to wean itself off the energy source.
The article "‘Drill, baby, drill’: America’s fossil fuel boom risks bust in Europe" by Gabriel Gavin and Ben Lefebvre, published on July 19, 2024, discusses the potential consequences of the United States' fossil fuel deals in Europe, especially in light of the EU's plans to reduce reliance on this energy source.From Texas to Pennsylvania, there's something more valuable than gold under the ground — and climate-anxious Democrats are too afraid to touch it.
So goes Donald Trump's typically hyperbolic argument on new oil and gas ventures, which Republicans trumpeted this week as they formally tapped the ex-president as their 2024 White House candidate.
In a speech at the Republican National Convention Thursday, Trump blasted the "green new scam" and doubled down on plans to boost fossil fuel production.
There's a major problem, though: The vast fossil fuel reserves aren’t the energy El Dorado the Republican contender's economic plans depend on. Even under Joe Biden, America may have already overcommitted.
Just a year ago, it didn’t necessarily seem that way. The U.S. had been handed a major new market in Europe as it swapped Russian gas for American supplies. Some Europeans even began worrying they were trading an over-reliance on Russia for over-reliance on America, with costly implications.
Now, though, Europe is preparing to kick its gas habit altogether as it seeks to slash planet-warming emissions. Gas demand is dropping, companies aren’t signing long-term gas contracts and renewable energy is growing. Meanwhile, politicians are increasingly pushing to be in control of their own energy supplies.
Still, Trump is bellowing “drill, baby, drill" on the campaign trail and the sentiment was front and center at this week’s Republican National Convention, where the party’s platform promises to “unleash Energy Production.”
"The biggest producers are states like Texas, Pennsylvania and Louisiana — and at least some of them are important swing states," said Kunro Irié, a visiting fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
Trump's plan centers on a bet that the U.S. can cash in on foreign demand if it rips up green legislation, massively expands offshore drilling and ends a Joe Biden-imposed moratorium on new liquid natural gas (LNG) export permits.
Even if Biden wins and maintains the moratorium, U.S. oil and gas production has already reached all-time highs and is hiring 10 percent more staff. And in the coming years, LNG exports will still spike, even if no new permits are awarded.
But a cliff edge may be looming.
Turning green
Russia's move to slash gas supplies to Europe after its invasion of Ukraine didn't just spark a frantic search for alternative providers. It also forced the European Union to drastically drive down its fuel use. Since 2022, the bloc has slashed demand by 18-20 percent each year.
Some countries, such as Finland, Denmark and Lithuania, have virtually halved their demand, meaning they need far less gas than at any time in recent history, according to a report from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. And despite funding challenges and uneven implementation, the bloc has seen renewable power skyrocket as part of a plan to be carbon neutral by 2050.
"We expect that demand for natural gas is going to continue declining at pace," said Georg Zachmann, a senior fellow at economics think tank Bruegel. "Given we have these climate commitments, the expectation is that demand will be lower by 2030, even lower by 2040, with the effect that there is no long-term gas demand in Europe."
Several EU countries have ambitions to phase out fossil gas over the next decade, ahead of a 2050 climate neutrality target.
Buyer's market
Pledging Europe will take "its energy destiny back into its own hands," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in April said that despite the shrinking demand, officials were still trying to negotiate the best deals in the meantime.
"A large wave of new LNG export projects are coming to market in the second half of the decade, mostly from the U.S. and from Qatar," she said. "These projects are going to increase the global supply of LNG by 50 percent. As a result, we're moving from a world of shortfalls of gas to the opposite, a world where we could soon see an abundance. This could bring significantly lower gas prices."
That rise in capacity could spell trouble for those looking to sell gas to a shrinking pool of interested European customers. For years, American analysts have questioned why the EU was refusing to strike long-term contracts with U.S. suppliers to replace lost Russian supplies. Now, it looks like that might have been a prudent move.
"I don't think it's a coincidence they haven't struck these contracts at all," said Tom Marzec-Manser, a gas markets expert at commodities giant ICIS, arguing the Europeans may well be betting on prices continuing to come down and demand continuing to shrink. "Without a doubt, Europe won’t be the biggest customer for LNG over a 15-20 year period."
According to Marzec-Manser, Trump ending the Biden administration's LNG export permitting pause would mean little because "these projects won't come online for years and their gas almost certainly won't ever end up in Europe."
Go East
While Democrats and Republicans fight over whether the fossil fuel industry should continue to expand, U.S. companies are already planning a pivot away from Europe.
Cheniere was the leading American supplier of LNG to Europe in 2022 and 2023. Its executive vice president and chief commercial officer, Anatol Feygin, told POLITICO that the rise in sales across the Atlantic was "not master puppeteered by the U.S government or Cheniere. It is the invisible hand of the market that sends the price signal."
According to him, "We have about three dozen long-term customers. Roughly half are entities that are based in Europe. But very few of those are in essence wired to go from Point A to Point B."
Now, he said, "Asia is going to be the driver of gas and LNG demand," not Europe.
That flexibility has until now actually played in America's favor, according to Michael Lewis, CEO of Uniper, Germany's largest gas importer.
"When it comes to LNG supplies, Germany has limited options. This is because most of the exporting countries only want to sign long-term contracts for about 15 or 20 years. This does not fit with the German strategy of decarbonization,” he said. "The U.S.A. are among the very few suppliers ready to sell on a mid-term basis, as well."
That may have given U.S. firms a lion's share of the market, but it's a market that could disappear very quickly, leaving American firms with a hole to plug in their budgets. While extra American production will be helpful if Europe has unexpected power demands or an extremely cold winter, said Jason Bordoff, founding director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, the direction of travel is away from the West and toward the East.
"As renewables grow and maybe as Europe starts to find alternative sources of energy, you can see more of those supplies, say, going to Asia." But, with shipping costs making up a large share of the overall price of LNG, it remains to be seen whether the U.S. can pivot its logistics from East to West while maintaining competitiveness.
Europe's Rust Belt
One downside accompanying Europe's gas demand reduction, and the associated price rises, has been a dramatic downturn for energy-intensive industries.
According to a report from Bordoff's Center on Global Energy Policy in March, the EU's gas demand "declined by about 11 percentage points between January and December 2022, and remained depressed throughout 2023, ending the year approximately 13 percentage points below January 2022 levels."
The worst affected have been sectors like manufacturing and chemicals, which have seen production decreases and layoffs.
David Goldwyn, a former official in the State Department and Energy Department during Barack Obama's presidency and chairman of the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center’s Energy Advisory Group, said the picture could change.
"There is a lot of upside for industrial revival in Europe, which would be more gas," he said.
However, according to Zachmann, the European energy analyst, the decision lies not with Trump and Biden, but in what kind of Europe will emerge from the energy crisis.
"Lots of heavy industries have had a hard time in recent years,” Zachmann said. “But, there is growing pressure to create skilled service jobs in their place. Ultimately, if Europe doesn't produce that much natural gas of its own, and has to bring it in from across the Atlantic, there may come a point that it doesn't feel very wise to set up gas-intensive industries like fertilizer manufacturing here anyway."
If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.
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For whom do the bells toll at the White House?
For whom do the bells toll at the White House?
"Hemingway's portrayal of ageing in "The Old Man and the Sea," published in 1952 and awarded the 1953 Pulitzer Prize, depicts an old fisherman struggling with the sea. This struggle mirrors the challenges faced in a high-stakes "situation room" in a powerful nation amidst global conflicts. The current world is experiencing severe war scenarios with conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, tensions between the U.S. and China, and concerns in Europe about the return of former President Trump.
Happy Sabbath! Wishing you and your family good health and happiness.
The comparison between Franklin Delano Roosevelt's 1944 re-election campaign and Joe Biden's current political situation is intriguing. Despite severe health issues like polio and heart disease, Roosevelt was determined to win re-election after nearly twelve years in office. He managed his ailments with coping mechanisms, such as using a heavier coffee mug to hide a tremor and limiting his cigarette intake. By May 1944, his declining health had reduced his daily working hours to just four.
Similarly, Joe Biden faces challenges regarding his age and health, with increasing pressure from his party to withdraw. Despite these obstacles, Biden is resolute in continuing his campaign, highlighting his experience and dedication to his policies. Both leaders exhibit resilience and unwavering commitment to their political objectives despite substantial personal and public challenges.
There has been a growing chorus of voices, including prominent figures like George Clooney, Barack Obama, and Michael Douglas, calling for the veteran politician to step aside due to ineffective service, often leading to replacement. Recently, several key Democrats have urged President Joe Biden to withdraw from his re-election campaign. Considering the current global situation, this reaction is overdue in our complex and often contentious world.
The world is grappling with significant geopolitical challenges. The conflict in Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East, especially in Gaza, are drawing international attention, impacting global security and economic stability.
North Korea's aggressive actions, like sending balloons filled with trash to South Korea and escalating military provocations, add to regional instability. In Taiwan, political unrest is evident through massive protests against legislative reforms that some believe threaten its democracy. The term "fuel war" conflicts over fuel resources, including geopolitical battles for oil control and competition in blockchain networks, is known as gas wars. These examples underscore the profound influence of fuel on global dynamics and technological progress.
These conflicts underscore the intricate and interconnected nature of contemporary global politics, underscoring the necessity for diplomatic endeavours and international collaboration to tackle these urgent issues.
The current geopolitical landscape is complex and risky, with the conflict in Ukraine drawing international attention and support from Western countries due to Russia's invasion. The potential return of Donald Trump to the White House adds further uncertainty to the U.S. stance and global stability.
In the Middle East, tensions are escalating due to the conflict between Hamas and Israel involving multiple countries. U.S. interventions in Yemen, Iraq, and Syria have complicated relations with Iran. North Korea's aggressive actions and Taiwan's delicate position in East Asia also add to global tension.
The recent conflicts have resulted in a concerning number of casualties, with over 200,000 deaths in state wars in 2022. The breakdown of communication and trust among significant powers worsens the instability. Despite attempts to de-escalate conflicts, the actions of key players such as Russia, Iran, and China, combined with the unpredictable nature of global politics, maintain a high risk of further destabilization.
Art work by Germán & Co“Hemingway's timeless portrayal of the irreversible path to aging in human beings was undoubtedly his nightmare in his writing. In his tale, "The Old Man and the Sea," published in 1952 and awarded the 1953 Pulitzer Prize, Hemingway portrays the lonely and aged fisherman grappling with the vast ocean. This struggle becomes a tragedy when transposed into the tumultuous realm of the "situation room" in one of the world's most powerful countries. To make matters worse, the world is currently facing one of the most severe war scenarios in half a century. The strategic significance of the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, the friction between the U.S. and China, and the fears in Europe of a possible return of former president Trump contribute to this tense global situation.
Germán & CoHappy Sabbath! Wishing you and your family the best of health and happiness…
“The comparison between Franklin Delano Roosevelt's 1944 re-election campaign and Joe Biden's current political situation is indeed intriguing. Roosevelt, despite severe health issues like polio and heart disease, was determined to win re-election after nearly twelve years in office. He managed his ailments with various coping mechanisms, such as using a heavier coffee mug to hide a tremor and limiting his cigarette intake. By May 1944, his declining health had reduced his daily working hours to just four…
Similarly, Joe Biden faces challenges related to his age and health, with growing calls from within his party for him to step aside. Despite these challenges, Biden remains determined to continue his campaign, emphasizing his experience and commitment to his policies. Both leaders demonstrate resilience and a strong commitment to their political goals, even in the face of significant personal and public challenges.
There has been a growing chorus of voices, including prominent figures like George Clooney, Barack Obama, and Michael Douglas, calling for the veteran politician to step aside. This is not uncommon; ineffective service often leads to replacement. Recently, several key Democrats have urged President Joe Biden to withdraw from his re-election campaign. While it's a difficult reality for the current president, many feel this reaction is overdue in our complex and often contentious world, is too late in we tajke in considerations the following radiography of the world.
The world is facing significant geopolitical challenges. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine continues to draw international attention, with implications for global security and economic stability. In the Middle East, tensions remain high, particularly in Gaza, where ceasefire proposals struggle to address the root causes of the conflict.
North Korea's aggressive rhetoric and actions, such as sending trash-filled balloons to South Korea and increasing military provocations, further contribute to regional instability. Meanwhile, Taiwan is experiencing political unrest, with large protests against controversial legislative reforms that many fear could undermine its democracy. It's important to mention the (1) "fuel war." This term can refer to various conflicts and competitions over fuel resources, such as the geopolitical struggles for oil control or even the competition in blockchain networks known as gas wars. Each context highlights the significant impact of fuel on global dynamics and technological advancements.
These conflicts highlight the complex and interconnected nature of global politics today, emphasizing the need for diplomatic efforts and international cooperation to address these pressing issues.
The current geopolitical landscape is indeed complex and fraught with risks. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine, with Russia's invasion, has drawn significant international attention and support for Ukraine from Western countries. The potential return of Donald Trump to the White House adds another layer of uncertainty to the U.S. stance and global stability.
In the Middle East, tensions are high with the conflict between Hamas and Israel, involving multiple countries. U.S. interventions in Yemen, Iraq, and Syria have further complicated relations with Iran. Additionally, North Korea's aggressive actions and Taiwan's precarious position in East Asia contribute to the global tension.
The number of casualties in recent conflicts is alarming, with over 200,000 deaths in state wars in 2022 alone. The breakdown of communication and trust among major powers exacerbates the instability. Despite efforts to de-escalate conflicts, the actions of key players like Russia, Iran, and China, along with the unpredictable nature of global politics, keep the risk of further destabilization high.
However, is there still hope for peace? There is always hope, but so far, diplomatic solutions and international cooperation, which are crucial for preventing escalation and maintaining global stability, have not been very successful. The United Nations recently launched a "New Agenda for Peace," outlining a vision to strengthen multilateral efforts for peace and security. This agenda emphasizes the importance of diplomacy, regional security frameworks, and addressing the root causes of conflicts, such as inequalities and human rights violations.
Here's a summary of the key points from the sources mentioned:
1. **Crisis Group's List of Conflicts to Monitor in 2024**:
- The list includes Gaza, Sudan, Ukraine, Myanmar, Ethiopia, the Sahel, Haiti, Armenia-Azerbaijan, and U.S.-China tensions.
2. **El País on Geopolitical and Economic Risks for 2024**:
- El País discusses geopolitical tensions, economic risks, the impact of central banks, instability in the Red Sea, and potential trade disruptions.
3. **Eurasia Group's Top Risks for 2024**:
- The top risks include ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza, potential political violence in the U.S. during the election, and broader tensions with China and Russia.
4. **Council on Foreign Relations' Risks for 2024**:
- The Council highlights risks such as domestic terrorism, U.S. political violence, the Israel-Hamas conflict, and potential migration from Central America and Mexico. Gabriel, S. A., Rosendahl, K. E., Egging, R. G., Avetisyan, H. G., & Siddiqui, S. (2012). (1) Cartelization in gas markets: Studying the potential for a “Gas OPEC”. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2011.05.014“In an ever-expanding and inflationary world, blogging presents considerable challenges. To sustain high-quality content in these times, we have invested in premium software, licenses, and copyrighted images, among other assets. Yet, we are not alone on this path. Over the past week, on "X," actions such as "liking" or "retweeting" are cost-free and completely confidential for you, courtesy of "Musk". Your support through these simple, yet free gestures is immensely appreciated in advance…
In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy CentralDon't miss out on the chance to show us some love by tossing a coin our way and signing up for our newsletter. Your support is like a ray of sunshine on a cloudy day, fueling our passion to keep churning out awesome content just for you. We're beyond grateful to have you as part of our tribe!
Thank you for your kind contributions…
Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…
"Our commitment to providing value and expertise remains unwavering."
Andrés Gluski, President and CEO of AES Corporation.“We do not inherit the earth from our parents, we borrow it from our children.”
―Antoine De Saint-Exupery
“Renewable energy is growing rapidly in the US. The recent merger between Power and AES's clean energy business boosts our ability to assist clients in their energy transition. Our combined entity manages 2.5 GW of assets, with 2.6 GW backlog and 12 GW in projects. Join our team dedicated to solving complex energy challenges and transitioning to a carbon-free grid.
In our quest for cleaner energy, we offer various innovative solutions through our sPower partnership, aiding customers in transitioning to 100% renewable energy consumption. The projects like Pleinmont Solar I and II in Virginia underline our commitment to sustainability and impact on the environment. Our collaboration with Microsoft on a 300 MW solar energy initiative further supports clients in reaching their green objectives.
AES partnered with KIUC for a solar + storage solution, setting a new standard in renewable energy, supporting Hawaii's 2045 goal. Ready to help Microsoft and more with eco-friendly energy solutions, as mentioned by Andrés Gluski, AES's President and CEO.
The creativity and dedication of Germán and his team to each project is evident in their artistic work.There has been a growing chorus of voices, including prominent figures like George Clooney, Barack Obama, and Michael Douglas, calling for the veteran politician to step aside. This is not uncommon; ineffective service often leads to replacement. Recently, several key Democrats have urged President Joe Biden to withdraw from his re-election campaign. While it's a difficult reality for the current president, many feel this reaction is overdue in our complex and often contentious world, is too late…
‘You’re worried if he knows which direction he’s going’: Nervous world leaders greet Biden at NATO
Biden’s solo press conference Thursday will be the most critical set piece of the NATO Summit, both for the president and the alliance…
The article from POLITICO by Eli Stokols, Alexander Ward, and Jonathan Lemire, published on July 11, 2024, discusses the concerns of NATO allies regarding President Joe Biden's perceived physical and political frailty. The article highlights the tension at the NATO Summit, where leaders are worried about Biden's ability to lead and the potential return of Donald Trump, which could impact the alliance's stability and Ukraine's defense against Russia.The contrast couldn’t be starker: President Joe Biden, physically and politically frail, presiding over what could be his final NATO Summit at a moment when the alliance has never been so strong.
That tension is not lost on NATO officials from multiple European nations who say they are alarmed by Biden’s apparent decline and increasingly concerned at the prospect of seeing an ardent champion of the alliance replaced in November by a hostile Donald Trump.
NATO officials are both saddened at how Biden’s fortunes have turned and frustrated that the storyline has distracted from what was to be a celebratory summit. They are also increasingly resigned to his defeat this November, which they fear could halt or reverse the 32-member alliance’s recent momentum, threatening Ukraine’s ability to fend off Russia’s onslaught and the broader stability that has been the bedrock of the organization since its Cold War creation.
“It’s a very weird feeling to be in Europe listening to the president of the United States, and you’re more stressed about whether he will go off script than being excited to listen to the leader of the free world,” a senior European diplomat said. “You’re worried if he knows which direction he’s going or whether he’s going to fall or what he’s going to forget or if he’ll say ‘North Korea’ when he meant ‘South Korea.’ It’s just a weird experience.”
As visiting leaders applauded his speech and exchanged warm smiles and handshakes, they and aides assessed him with an acute awareness of the context. They all registered the continuing fallout from Biden’s dismal June 27 debate performance two weeks ago, the ongoing drip of doubt among Democrats who no longer believe he can defeat Trump in November and the precarity of a moment when his candidacy seems to hang on every word and step.
“He didn’t look good,” said a Washington-based diplomat from one of those countries.
NATO officials are frustrated at how Biden’s political problems have distracted from what was to be a celebratory summit — and increasingly resigned to his defeat this November. | Jacquelyn Martin/AP
However closely watched Biden’s words and walking gait have been over the first two days of gatherings, his solo press conference Thursday evening will be the most critical set piece of the week, both for the president politically and the alliance.
“We would prefer a more stable situation in the U.S.,” said the official, who like others interviewed for this story were granted anonymity.
The overwhelming focus on Biden, some officials said, was diverting attention away from Trump and what it would mean if the Republican, who as president berated NATO allies for not spending enough on defense and threatened to withdraw from the alliance, returned to the White House.
“Everyone’s focusing on Biden’s appearance and less on Trump’s statements about NATO,” the senior European diplomat added. “He’s not that much younger.”
In a speech in Washington on Tuesday night, none other than Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy referenced November’s presidential election as critical, expressing optimism that the U.S. will remain committed to his country’s defense regardless of the outcome but urging NATO members to act with urgency and “not to wait for November.”
Ivo Daalder, a former U.S. ambassador to NATO under President Barack Obama, said that NATO allies, many of which have already accelerated defense spending in response to the war in Ukraine, would continue working toward greater strategic autonomy as it becomes more likely in their view that Trump may win.
“NATO allies understand that the probability of a Trump administration has gone up dramatically since the debate,” Daalder said. “That’s just a reality people have to deal with, so that means more outreach to the Trump camp in the short term and more determination by European allies to get to a place where those countries are doing more things on their own.”
When heads of state arrived on Wednesday morning for the first working session of NATO’s 75th anniversary summit, many of them took a turn at the “doorstep” microphone positioned before a long press riser to offer opening remarks focused mostly on alliance unity and support for Ukraine.
Hanno Pevkur: Ukraine 'should be our main focus'
But nearly everyone who spoke got hit with the same awkward questions about Biden’s weakened political position following his debate with Trump and what his electoral loss could mean for the alliance.
“I’m not going to comment on this topic,” said Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, who walked off after speaking for just a few minutes. Others responded mostly with platitudes about respecting America’s democratic process and professions of faith that NATO will endure even if Trump is ushered back into office.
Alexander Stubb, the American-educated president of Finland, one of NATO’s newest members, lamented the “toxic” level of political polarization in the U.S., while stating optimistically that Washington will continue to need European allies even if Trump wins in November.
“Of course we’re looking at elections throughout the world, and the American elections are very important,” said Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo. “But let’s be extremely clear, it’s the American citizens who will make their choice and that is a choice we will respect.”
De Croo, who met with Biden at the White House roughly a month ago, told reporters he found the president to have been “very clear on our objectives”; and he praised his Tuesday evening speech before NATO leaders at Mellon Auditorium as an “extremely strong statement.”
But when he was asked what he made of Biden’s shaky debate performance, De Croo shuffled away, eagerly ceding the microphone to another leader waiting in the wings.
“It’s incredibly awkward for our allies to get asked these questions about Biden’s mental acuity,” said Brett Bruen, a former State Department official under Obama. “They have their prepared pivot points, but it isn’t easy.”
The three-day NATO summit, which wraps up Thursday, was something of a diversion for Biden as he fights to contain a growing Democratic resistance to his reelection bid. But despite the difficulty of finding time for direct outreach to wobbly lawmakers and donors, the opportunity to play a leading role on the world stage, his aides believed, could go a long way toward assuaging doubts and reminding domestic political allies about the importance of experience and shared values.
His forceful and relatively crisp opening speech Tuesday emphasized his and NATO’s commitment to Ukraine’s defense and was well-received by lawmakers and pundits.
“Everyone was watching with bated breath as he took the stage,” said Rachel Rizzo, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center. “He successfully quelled concerns because he came across as forceful and presidential. But his age and his ability to do this job for another four years are certainly questions European leaders are still asking themselves.”
Biden’s closest aides recognize that he can’t afford any public stumbles this week at the Washington summit, particularly in Thursday’s high-stakes news conference, according to the two officials. And even then, given the growing chorus of supporters calling on him to end his campaign, it might not be enough.
As Biden greeted all 31 leaders and posed for photos on Wednesday, foreign diplomats watching those formalities and the president’s scripted opening remarks at the start of the first private working session were glued to his movements, highly attuned to the tenor of his voice — waiting, in many cases, to see the version of the president they saw in that first debate.
Several foreign leaders, during their remarks upon arrival and at various panel discussions occurring on the summit sidelines this week, have addressed the growing possibility of Trump returning to the White House next year. Many have touted how 23 of the 32 member nations have reached or exceeded the shared goal that countries spend at least 2 percent of GDP on defense — a major sticking point for Trump, who threatened to pull the U.S. out of the alliance at the 2018 summit in Brussels unless other countries shared more of the burden.
Biden affirms NATO commitment to Ukraine: 'Russia will not prevail'
Denmark’s foreign minister, Lars Løkke Rasmussen, recalled Trump reading off a list of nations’ paltry spending levels at the 2018 summit. “Things have changed now,” he said, suggesting that the notion of “Trump-proofing” the alliance with new spending commitments and initiatives aimed at supporting the long term defense of Ukraine and Europe should be recast as “future-proofing” the alliance. “We have to understand it is in our own best interests to spend more…and that will give us an upper hand toward anyone in the White House.”
But given that Trump’s isolationist leanings are deeply ingrained in the U.S. — and have been for decades — a number of NATO leaders are somewhat frustrated that the focus on Biden may be drowning out their broader message for the American public during a summit on U.S. soil.
“The Americans need to hear from us all that the problem is not Ukraine,” said Baiba Braže, the Latvian foreign minister. “The problem is Russia.”
One official from a NATO country, who was granted anonymity to speak more candidly, lamented that little of the summit’s significant and substantive actions — including the announcement of air defense systems for Ukraine, a promise that Ukraine is on an “irreversible” path to NATO membership and major defense industrial base investments — won’t break through, at least with a U.S. audience.
“All the Americans are looking for at this summit is the photo op of Biden with allies,” the official said. “We’re really concerned that the world will essentially be leaderless for the next several months, and then we don’t know what comes after that.”
That nervousness about the prospect of Trump once again leading NATO’s most indispensable member country is deeply felt among officials and many heads of state, whose confident statements about the alliance maintaining its recent momentum cut against other expressions of real uncertainty.
“I am hoping, praying for, expecting the transatlantic alliance will be strong and alive also in the coming years,” Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said on Tuesday during an event at the Council on Foreign Relations. “Hopefully, no matter what happens in the U.S., that will be the case.”
Although there is still time for Biden to abandon his campaign, many visiting officials no longer believe he will be reelected should he remain in the race. Estonia’s defense minister Hanno Pevkur, for one, responded to a question earlier this week about future U.S. support for Ukraine by suggesting that the answer won’t be clear until January, speaking of Trump’s return as a foregone conclusion.
“I would like to see what the new administration will do,” Pevkur said. “What happens in January when the new president takes office?”
If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.
Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.
Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.
Siemens Gamesa is engaged in one of Britain's most significant decarbonization initiatives to date.
“Forty years ago, Siemens Gamesa foresaw the potential of harnessing nature and engineering to generate clean energy. Presently, its wind turbines produce over 130 GW globally, sufficient to power over 110 million homes each year. Moreover, the company fosters sustainable growth and development in local communities worldwide. Unquestionably, Siemens Gamesa is a frontrunner in the renewable energy industry, striving to provide the finest onshore and offshore wind turbines and services globally.
Recently, Siemens Gamesa secured a major contract with ScottishPower Renewables to supply 95 units of its premier SG 14-236 DD wind turbine for the East Anglia 3 wind power project. Situated in the North Sea off the coast of eastern England, the project boasts a total capacity of 1.4 GW and forms part of the broader East Anglia Hub initiative, which targets the generation of 2.9 GW of clean energy. Upon completion, East Anglia 3 is expected to supply electricity to around 1.3 million UK households. Construction is set to commence in spring 2026, with the project's conclusion projected by the year's end. This represents a substantial stride towards the UK's decarbonization goals and energy independence. As reported today in The New York Times, in an article titled "Britain has grand ambitions for clean energy, but are they achievable?" Siemens Gamesa's experience affirm that its projects consistently come to fruition.
As Britain’s new prime minister, Keir Starmer hopes to use investment in clean energy to strengthen a stagnant.: Germán & Co via Shutterstock“40 years ago, Siemens Gamesa recognized the potential of combining nature and engineering to produce clean energy. Today, its wind turbines generate more than 130 GW of power worldwide, enough to supply more than 110 million homes annually. In addition, the company contributes to the sustainable growth and development of local communities across the globe. There is no doubt that Siemens Gamesa is a leader in the renewable energy sector. It aims to offer the best onshore and offshore wind turbines and services worldwide.
Now, Siemens Gamesa has recently secured a significant contract with ScottishPower Renewables to supply 95 units of its flagship SG 14-236 DD wind turbine for the East Anglia 3 wind power project. Located in the North Sea off England's east coast, the project has a total capacity of 1.4 GW and is part of the larger East Anglia Hub development, which aims to generate 2.9 GW of clean energy. Once operational, East Anglia 3 is expected to provide electricity to approximately 1.3 million UK households. Construction is scheduled to begin in spring 2026, with completion anticipated by the end of that year. This marks a significant step towards the UK's decarbonization objectives and energy self-sufficiency… Today, in The New York Times, in the article tittled :"Britain has grand ambitions for clean energy, but are they achievable? With four decades of experience, Siemens Gamesa has demonstrated that all its projects reach fruition...
“In an ever-expanding and inflationary world, blogging presents considerable challenges. To sustain high-quality content in these times, we have invested in premium software, licenses, and copyrighted images, among other assets. Yet, we are not alone on this path. Over the past week, on "X," actions such as "liking" or "retweeting" are cost-free and completely confidential for you, courtesy of "Musk". Your support through these simple, yet free gestures is immensely appreciated in advance…
In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy CentralDon't miss out on the chance to show us some love by tossing a coin our way and signing up for our newsletter. Your support is like a ray of sunshine on a cloudy day, fueling our passion to keep churning out awesome content just for you. We're beyond grateful to have you as part of our tribe!
Thank you for your kind contributions…
Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…
"Our commitment to providing value and expertise remains unwavering."
Andrés Gluski, President and CEO of AES Corporation.“We do not inherit the earth from our parents, we borrow it from our children.”
―Antoine De Saint-Exupery
“Renewable energy is growing rapidly in the US. The recent merger between Power and AES's clean energy business boosts our ability to assist clients in their energy transition. Our combined entity manages 2.5 GW of assets, with 2.6 GW backlog and 12 GW in projects. Join our team dedicated to solving complex energy challenges and transitioning to a carbon-free grid.
In our quest for cleaner energy, we offer various innovative solutions through our sPower partnership, aiding customers in transitioning to 100% renewable energy consumption. The projects like Pleinmont Solar I and II in Virginia underline our commitment to sustainability and impact on the environment. Our collaboration with Microsoft on a 300 MW solar energy initiative further supports clients in reaching their green objectives.
AES partnered with KIUC for a solar + storage solution, setting a new standard in renewable energy, supporting Hawaii's 2045 goal. Ready to help Microsoft and more with eco-friendly energy solutions, as mentioned by Andrés Gluski, AES's President and CEO.
A mold for making a wind turbine blade on the floor of Siemens Gamesa factory in Hull, England. The plant has been making the blades since 2016.Credit...Jack Roe for The New York TimesBritain Has Huge Clean Energy Ambitions, but Are They Realistic?
“Analysts warn that the Labour Party’s proposals are unlikely to be cheap and could come at the cost of jobs in the oil and gas industry…
NYT by Stanley Reed, reporting from Hull, England, July 10, 2024.There may be no better place to see evidence of Britain’s shift to cleaner energy than a sleek industrial complex on the Humber estuary outside Hull, a faded port city.
On a July morning, workers in a brightly lit building were preparing molds for fiberglass wind turbine blades longer than football fields. Outside on the docks, squat six-wheeled vehicles gingerly maneuvered a blade weighing 50 metric tons for loading onto a ship that would take it to Scotland for installation.
The factory, which is operated by Siemens Gamesa, a unit of the German company Siemens Energy, began producing the massive blades in 2016. It has since expanded to accommodate larger models.
The factory is a case study for how the new British government under Prime Minister Keir Starmer, whose Labour Party delivered a decisive election victory last week, hopes to use investment in clean energy to bolster stagnant economic growth.
Andy Sykes, the manager of the factory, said that 500 million pounds, or about $630 million, had already been invested in the plant, which employs 1,300 people in an area that has struggled economically for decades. Another round of expansion is in the works.
The plant also serves as an anchor for green efforts in the region, one of Britain’s major industrial areas, which is dominated by oil refineries and other polluters.
As Britain’s new prime minister, Keir Starmer hopes to use investment in clean energy to strengthen a stagnant. Image: Germán & Co via ShutterstockMr. Sykes, though, said the British government would need to attract the funding for port expansion and other efforts to keep the offshore wind industry growing. “There needs to be a commitment and a guarantee that there’s a return on investment,” he said.
The government is also facing concerns about the costs of the transition and its potential to hurt job growth in a region that depends on the energy industry for employment opportunities.
Executives in the clean energy industry like most of what they have heard from the Labour Party. Mr. Starmer, who took office on Friday, had made the rapid expansion of low carbon energy — from wind to nuclear — a key plank of his campaign to not only tackle climate change but to also bring in what could be tens of billions of pounds in investment.
Among his pledges: quadrupling Britain’s offshore wind capacity, which is already second globally to China’s, as part of an ambitious effort to eliminate emissions from electric power generation by 2030.
Mr. Starmer also wants to streamline Britain’s agonizingly slow development planning process, sweeping away restrictions that prevent the building of land-based wind farms, for instance. Wind is already the largest source of power generation in Britain, accounting for about 30 percent of supplies over the last year, slightly more than natural gas.
And Mr. Starmer wants the government to have a bigger role in renewable energy.
The vision pleases both clean energy operators and environmentalists, who have chafed at what they perceive as a loss of momentum on climate goals under the former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.
“Achieving that by 2030 or even getting close to that would be just an enormous step forward, far, far ahead of our major economy peers,” said Chris Stark, a former chief executive of the Climate Change Committee, a government body that monitors Britain’s plans to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
Rows of wind turbine blades are arranged for transport to offshore wind farms before being loaded onto ships. Wind power constitutes the largest source of electricity generation in Britain. Source: Jack Roe for The New York TimesMr. Starmer is also taking a tough approach to old-line energy producers. He has said he would tighten an existing tax squeeze on oil and gas companies operating in the North Sea and stop issuing exploration licenses in the area, which, while in decline, is still a major source of both energy and jobs.
“The U.K. has, and I think continues to be, at the leading edge of the energy transition,” said Roger Martella, the chief sustainability officer at GE Vernova, a maker of wind turbines and other energy-related machinery.
Labour has presented these proposals as an almost risk-free bonanza. The push will not only help stave off climate change, but also create some 650,000 jobs, the party forecasts.
The party says that more blades spinning in the safety of home waters would insulate Britain from the impact of international events, like the sharp rise in electricity and natural gas prices that occurred after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
“Families and businesses will have lower bills for good,” the party said in an election document.
Analysts warn, though, that Labour’s proposals are unlikely to be cheap, and they come with other risks. For one thing, Labour is proposing a large effort to build green energy infrastructure in an economy that is more focused on sectors like finance. “The U.K. doesn’t have almost any of the supply chain for developing wind or solar or, indeed, nuclear or anything else,” said Dieter Helm, a professor of economic policy at the University of Oxford.
Such shortcomings have already been seen in the soaring costs plaguing Hinkley Point, the first nuclear power station that Britain has tried to build in decades.
A rush to build renewable energy sources could push up costs, which might then be passed on to consumers. “If cost is no object, that’s great,” said David Reiner, who teaches energy policy at the Judge Business School at the University of Cambridge, adding that Labour’s goals might be achievable with an increase in electric bills.
“Investors need a commitment from the British government to keep the offshore wind industry growing,..
Said Andy Sykes, the Siemens Gamesa plant manager.The environment for building renewable energy projects has become much tougher since the coronavirus pandemic. According to industry estimates, the costs of developing an offshore wind farm — large ones run to billions of dollars — have risen 40 percent in recent years because of higher material and labor costs and interest rates.
An auction last year for government support produced no bids for offshore wind projects, and the industry said that the government’s electric power pricing targets were unrealistically low. Industry executives said the results of a new auction, expected to be announced in September, would be seen as a bellwether for the future British market.
Finally, there are risks that moving fast to curtail oil and gas production could cost more jobs around the North Sea, especially in Scotland and northeast England, than the ones green energy would create.
James Reid, an analyst at the consulting firm Wood Mackenzie, forecast that production could fall 50 percent by the end of the decade if Labour’s fiscal proposals cause “people to turn the investment taps off.”
Highlighting the stakes: Around 200,000 North Sea energy jobs are linked to oil and gas, but just 34,000 are linked to renewables, estimated Paul de Leeuw, the director of the Energy Transition Institute at Robert Gordon University in Aberdeen, Britain’s oil center. “It is scary and a real call to action,” he said.
Mr. de Leeuw said that renewable energy could compensate for a lot of jobs expected to be lost in the oil industry, but the pace of building new projects needed to be much faster, “not an easy thing to do,” he said.
Oil workers are alarmed at the threat to their own jobs and skeptical about finding alternatives in renewable energy or elsewhere. Unite, one of the largest unions in Britain, and usually a key supporter of the Labour Party, has even organized small protests in Aberdeen against Mr. Starmer’s planned curbs on the oil industry.
“The lads don’t see any other option apart from the oil and gas industry,” said Kyle Griffiths, a union official who cleans and paints oil tanks on an offshore platform.
To help stimulate investment, Mr. Starmer has promised to set up a government company called Great British Energy, with headquarters in Scotland, to fund new renewable initiatives like mounting turbines on floating platforms.
The 8.3 billion pounds that Mr. Starmer intends to put into the new company over five years is relatively small, but its impact could be multiplied through partnerships and loans.
“We’ve got lots of projects we could partner with them on,” said Alistair Phillips-Davies, the chief executive of SSE, a utility based in Scotland that is one of Britain’s largest green energy developers.fshore wind site in Britain — a blade factory and test center operated by Vestas, the Danish turbine maker, on the Isle of Wight.
“Unrivaled wind installation programs in the U.K. have mainly benefited producers in neighboring European countries, notably Germany and Denmark,” Simone Gasperin and Joshua Emden wrote in a study that was recently published by the Institute for Public Policy Research.
While the Hull plant may be controlled by a foreign company and producing blades designed elsewhere, it is at least supporting relatively well-paid jobs in an area that could use them. When the company was staffing up a decade ago, it received 28,000 applications, Mr. Sykes said.
If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.
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China, struggling to make use of a boom in energy storage, calls for even more…
Happy Sabbath to all! May this day bring joy, peace, and blessings to everyone…
The current geopolitical landscape indicates that President Vladimir Putin holds a dominant position. Marine Le Pen's significant victory in France is reportedly linked to considerable financial support from the Kremlin. The Labor Party's decisive victory in England, along with Germany's weakened state, has altered the political dynamics in Europe. Meanwhile, as the US election process progresses, forecasts suggest a potential re-election of former President Donald Trump in November. If these predictions materialize, they could signal the end of the war in Ukraine. President Putin has showcased his political acumen by announcing an impending visit by India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Moscow. The visit is anticipated to address concerns regarding India's alignment with Western interests and its growing distance from Moscow, which may yield influence to China in regions like Latin America and Africa. Although the dates for the visit have not yet been confirmed, both nations have recognized it, and Indian media speculate that Modi's visit could coincide with a NATO summit in Washington. The summit is set to occur amidst increased scrutiny of President Joe Biden's cognitive abilities, spurred by a New Yorker article contemplating the invocation of the Twenty-fifth Amendment. On February 8, in an interview with Tucker Carlson, President Putin responded to a pivotal question, further influencing the global conversation. Spain recently secured a victory over Germany in the Euro Cup with a last-minute goal in extra time, ending the game with a score of 2-1. Qué viva España! Spain's recent victory of Spain evokes the 1850 painting by Manuel Cabral Aguado Bejarano, titled 'La Reyerta' ("The Brawl") depicting a chaotic brawl in an Andalusian inn filled with various characters in violent confrontation. At the heart of a spacious, yet plainly adorned room, a man with his left arm in a sling defends himself against an adversary, weapon in hand, ready to strike. Around them, the scene intensifies: to the left, a man hoists a guitar high, poised to hit another figure on the floor, while a woman weeps beside a gravely wounded person. Meanwhile, a gentleman hastens down a staircase, apparently escaping the conflict with a partner. Above, another individual seems prepared to step into the fray with a gun. Indeed, it is the mad and cruel world we inhabit... and it warns us that we are very close to another Yalta II Agreement... Additionally, the transition from El Niño to La Niña, coupled with Hurricane Beryl, has resulted in significant damage and an increase in poverty, affecting the electricity sector. More information is available in the New York Times article "How Future Hurricanes Could Stress Power Grids of U.S. Cities," included in this edition. Wishing myself a good night and a pleasant morning to all.
Image: "La Reyerta" ("The Brawl") by Manuel Cabral Aguado Bejarano, dated 1850. Oil on canvas, dimensions 60 x 74.5 cm, catalog reference CTB.1998.4.The Carmen Thyssen-Bornemisza Collection is on free loan to the Carmen Thyssen Museum in Málaga.Manuel Cabral Aguado Bejarano
"La Reyerta" ("The Brawl")
1850
Oil on canvas
60 x 74.5 cm
CTB.1998.4
© Carmen Thyssen-Bornemisza Collection on free loan to the Carmen Thyssen Museum in Málaga.Happy Sabbath to all! May this day bring joy, peace, and blessings to everyone…
The current geopolitical landscape suggests that President Vladimir Putin occupies a dominant position. Marine Le Pen's significant victory in France has been linked to substantial financial support from the Kremlin. The Labor Party's overwhelming victory in England, coupled with Germany's weakened state, has changed the political dynamics in Europe. Additionally, with the US election process underway, forecasts indicate a potential re-election of former President Donald Trump in November. Should these predictions come to pass, they could herald the end of the war in Ukraine. President Putin demonstrated his political savvy by announcing an upcoming visit by India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Moscow. The visit is expected to address concerns about India's alignment with Western interests and its distancing from Moscow, which could cede influence to China in Latin America and Africa. While the visit's dates have not yet been confirmed, both countries have acknowledged it, and Indian media speculate that Modi's visit might align with a NATO summit in Washington. The summit takes place amid heightened scrutiny of President Joe Biden's cognitive abilities, fueled by a New Yorker article that discusses the potential invocation of the Twenty-fifth Amendment. In an interview with Tucker Carlson on February 8, President Putin addressed a critical question, further shaping the international dialogue. A few hours ago, Spain triumphed over Germany in the Euro Cup with a last-minute goal during extra time, concluding the match with a final score of 2-1. Qué viva España…. The recent victory of Spain evokes the 1850 painting by Manuel Cabral Aguado Bejarano, titled 'La Reyerta' ("The Brawl") depicting a chaotic brawl in an Andalusian inn, filled with various characters in violent confrontation. At the heart of a spacious, yet plainly adorned room, a man with his left arm in a sling defends himself against an adversary, weapon in hand, ready to strike. Around them, the scene intensifies: to the left, a man hoists a guitar high, poised to hit another figure on the floor, while a woman weeps beside a gravely wounded person. Meanwhile, a gentleman hastens down a staircase, apparently escaping the conflict with a partner. Above, another individual seems prepared to step into the fray with a gun. Indeed, it is the mad and cruel world we inhabit... and it warns us that we are very close to another Yalta II Agreement... Moreover, the shift from El Niño to La Niña, along with Hurricane Beryl, has led to extensive damage and a rise in poverty, impacting the electricity sector. Further details can be found in the New York Times article titled "How Future Hurricanes Could Stress Power Grids of U.S. Cities," featured in this edition. Wishing myself a good night and a good morning to everyone else.
Artwork by Germán & Co“The cost of batteries going down made energy storage more affordable in China. Peak-valley pricing allows selling stored energy for more money when demand is high, boosting the use of storage tech like batteries and pumped hydro storage.
China is leading the energy transition with the goal of reaching carbon neutrality by 2060. The country's energy sector has traditionally relied heavily on fossil fuels, especially coal, which accounts for over 90% of its greenhouse gas emissions. To attain carbon neutrality, China needs to hasten the shift towards low-carbon energy and promote the adoption of clean energy technologies such as solar power, heat pumps, and electric vehicles, especially in rural areas.
Renewable energy sources like wind and solar photovoltaic are anticipated to increase sevenfold by 2060, with renewables expected to constitute nearly 80% of China's power generation mix. This transition will be supported by innovative technologies like hydrogen and carbon capture, demonstrating China's progressive stance on energy transformation.
The decreasing cost of batteries has made energy storage more economically viable in China. The implementation of peak-valley pricing allows providers to sell stored energy during high-demand periods when prices are higher, thus encouraging the use of storage technologies, including battery and pumped hydro storage. This is particularly evident in coastal provinces such as Guangdong.
While pumped hydro storage is a mature technology in China and has a larger capacity than battery storage, it is limited by geographical factors and longer development times.
China's dedication to the energy transition offers economic opportunities, geopolitical benefits, and addresses urgent environmental issues. Realizing carbon neutrality will necessitate extensive reforms, advanced technologies, and significant financial investments, presenting considerable economic opportunities and growth potential.
“In an ever-expanding and inflationary world, blogging presents considerable challenges. To sustain high-quality content in these times, we have invested in premium software, licenses, and copyrighted images, among other assets. Yet, we are not alone on this path. Over the past week, on "X," actions such as "liking" or "retweeting" are cost-free and completely confidential for you, courtesy of "Musk". Your support through these simple, yet free gestures is immensely appreciated in advance…
In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy CentralDon't miss out on the chance to show us some love by tossing a coin our way and signing up for our newsletter. Your support is like a ray of sunshine on a cloudy day, fueling our passion to keep churning out awesome content just for you. We're beyond grateful to have you as part of our tribe!
Thank you for your kind contributions…
Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…
"Our commitment to providing value and expertise remains unwavering."
Andrés Gluski, President and CEO of AES Corporation.“We do not inherit the earth from our parents, we borrow it from our children.”
―Antoine De Saint-Exupery
“Renewable energy is growing rapidly in the US. The recent merger between Power and AES's clean energy business boosts our ability to assist clients in their energy transition. Our combined entity manages 2.5 GW of assets, with 2.6 GW backlog and 12 GW in projects. Join our team dedicated to solving complex energy challenges and transitioning to a carbon-free grid.
In our quest for cleaner energy, we offer various innovative solutions through our sPower partnership, aiding customers in transitioning to 100% renewable energy consumption. The projects like Pleinmont Solar I and II in Virginia underline our commitment to sustainability and impact on the environment. Our collaboration with Microsoft on a 300 MW solar energy initiative further supports clients in reaching their green objectives.
AES partnered with KIUC for a solar + storage solution, setting a new standard in renewable energy, supporting Hawaii's 2045 goal. Ready to help Microsoft and more with eco-friendly energy solutions, as mentioned by Andrés Gluski, AES's President and CEO.
Electrical pylons and power lines stand in the Yanqing district of Beijing, China.. Workart by Germán & Co. Reuters by Colleen Howe, Beijing, July 5, 2024.Rows of what look like thin, white shipping containers are lined up on a barren dirt field in China's Shandong province.
Filled with batteries, they form a 795 megawatt (MW) plant that can hold up to 1 million kilowatt-hours of electricity - enough to power 150,000 households for a day, making it China's largest such storage facility when it was connected to the grid last Saturday.
Built by Lijin County Jinhui New Energy Co, the project is part of an explosion in development of energy storage in China, which has called for even more investment in the sector to boost renewable electricity and ease grid bottlenecks.
While the state-led drive has provided a welcome spark for home-grown battery giants such as CATL (300750.SZ), opens new tab and BYD, some industry insiders and experts say pricing reforms and technology improvements are needed for a storage sector whose rapid growth has been plagued by low utilisation and losses for operators.
"Most of the players in this sector are trying to figure out how to make money," said Rystad Energy senior analyst Simeng Deng.
Investment in grid-connected batteries in China surged 364% last year to 75 billion yuan ($11 billion), according to Carbon Brief, creating by far the world's largest storage fleet at 35.3 GW as of March.
In May, China set a new target of at least 40GW of battery storage installed by the end of 2025, up 33% from the previous goal under a wider plan to reduce carbon emissions.
REUTERS GRAPHIC
Reuters Graphics
Storage is critical to help balance supply and demand when wind and solar farms produce more renewable electricity than the grid's distribution system can handle, or when a lack of sun or wind means they are generating too little power.
To meet Beijing's targets, local governments have required renewable energy plants to build storage, driving rapid capacity growth.
However, highly regulated power markets have struggled to incentivise usage, particularly at solar and wind facilities, leading China's cabinet to call for research into improving price mechanisms.
Energy storage at renewables plants operated just 2.18 hours a day last year, while independent facilities operated only 2.61 hours per day, according to the China Electricity Council. By comparison, storage at industrial and commercial plants operated 14.25 hours per day.
Policy mandates requiring renewables plants to install storage have failed because they add to project costs and often sit idle, said Cosimo Ries, an analyst at Trivium China.
"Because power prices are not flexible enough during different hours, these projects just can't really make money," Ries said.
BIG BUILD:
The stakes are high for China, which leads the world in adoption of energy transition technology, and for its battery giants, which are seeing faster growth in batteries for storage than for cars as electric vehicle sales growth slows.
While government mandates are a key driver of China's storage boom, big power users such as industrial parks and EV charging stations are also driving adoption. China, where 60% of the world's electric vehicles are sold, has worried about the effects of EVs on its power grid, and storage can help smooth demand spikes.
Falling battery prices are improving the economics of storage in China, with costs for batteries used in standard energy storage down by about a fifth between the end of 2023 and mid-June, according to consultancy Shanghai Metals Market.
Also, expanding adoption of "peak-valley pricing", which discourages electricity use during peak demand times by raising prices, gives storage providers more chance to profit by selling stored power when they can charge more.
That has led to intraday price differentials of up to 0.9 yuan per kwh in coastal provinces like Guangdong, where the peak price of 1.1868 yuan/kwh is more than four times the low, enough to incentivise use of both battery and pumped hydro storage, said Alex Whitworth, head of Asia Pacific power research at Wood Mackenzie.
Pumped hydro is an established technology with more than 60% greater capacity than battery storage in China, but with geographical limitations and long lead times.
Investor returns on solar-plus-storage projects are also improving as solar module prices fall, making renewables-plus-storage "financially feasible in most parts of China" with internal rates of return meeting the minimum investment hurdle rate of at least 8%, wrote Pierre Lau, a Citi analyst.
Further market reform is needed to incentivise battery storage, industry players say, with storage operators calling for wider use of capacity payments similar to those meant to keep struggling coal plants online, with costs shouldered by customers.
BETTER BATTERIES:
Battery technology is also improving…
The vast new Shandong plant incorporates both lithium ion and vanadium redox flow batteries, according to a report by local state media. Vanadium is a newer technology that promises longer storage times and improved safety.
While the economics of lithium ion batteries are expected to improve, experts say most current technology is suitable for shorter storage durations of four hours or less, and some say it is best used in smaller-scale applications. Fire risk remains a concern, particularly with lower-quality batteries, experts say.
Emerging technologies such as thermal energy storage, redox flow batteries, and sodium ion batteries have shown promise for longer-duration storage but have higher up-front costs, with technology and supply chains that are less mature.
China is hedging its bets by increasing its pipeline of pumped hydro projects - which can take five to seven years to build - and encouraging demonstration projects in emerging technologies.
Reporting by Colleen Howe, additional reporting by Zhang Yan and Beijing newsroom; Editing by Lincoln Feast.
Darkened streets in New Orleans after Hurricane Ida made landfall in Louisiana in 2021 and knocked out power supplies. Credit...Johnny Milano for The New York TimesHow Future Hurricanes Could Stress Power Grids of U.S. cities…
A new analysis shows increasing frequency and intensity of hurricanes could cause more devastating interruptions to the power grid.
The New York Times, authored by Austyn Gaffney, July 5, 2024.The risk of hurricane-induced power outages could become 50 percent higher in some areas of the United States, including Puerto Rico, because of climate change in the coming decades, according to a new analysis.
Researchers at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and the Electric Power Research Institute mapped how future hurricanes could affect power supplies, allowing residents to see how vulnerable their electricity is.
The research comes just after Hurricane Beryl broke records as the earliest Category 4 and 5 storm to form in the Atlantic Ocean. The storm flattened islands in the Caribbean, killed at least eight people and left vulnerable island communities in shambles. On Friday, it made landfall on the Yucatán Peninsula and its projected path suggests it could hit northern Mexico and the Gulf Coast of Texas this weekend.
“These hurricanes can cause really devastating power outages,” said Julian Rice, a data scientist at the national laboratory who helped develop the map. Those outages can have subsequent effects, he said, like reducing access to health care and cutting off power used to heat and cool homes.
The researchers used computer s to model almost one million hurricanes under simulated climate scenarios. The models projected factors like humidity, wind and sea surface temperatures under various potential global warming situations between 2066 and 2100.
The Pacific Northwest team then partnered with the power research institute, a nonprofit group focused on electricity research, to pair these mock hurricanes with a power outage model that trained on outage data from 23 hurricanes that affected the United States over the last decade.
The projections suggest that increasingly stronger and wetter storms, driven by the burning of fossil fuels, will make landfall more frequently and push further inland, with tangible effects on the grid. In these scenarios, increased rainfall clogs soil and weighs down tree canopies. Trees can easily uproot or become unstable, falling on power lines or causing landslides that knock out electric infrastructure.
The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coastal areas are predicted to see the zone of potential climate-driven storms and hurricanes shift upward, exposing them more often to the risk of outages. The average person in the metropolitan areas of Boston, Houston and New Orleans could see expected outage events increase more than 70 percent per decade, the analysis found. In Tampa, it’s even higher, and in Miami, residents could see a 119 percent increase.
Hurricanes get a lot of attention from utility companies along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts, said Andrea Staid, research leader in energy systems and climate analysis at the Electric Power Research Institute, who helped author the study.
But the analysis could help energy companies plan future improvements, she said. “It motivates them even more because it shows what can happen if we don’t adapt,” Dr. Staid said, “if we don’t take climate considerations into account when planning our energy system.”
Over the last decade, the number of weather-related power outages has almost doubled, according to Climate Central. Most major power outages between 2000 and 2023 were caused by extreme weather, and 14 percent of those were caused by tropical cyclones and hurricanes.
Some of the counties with the highest risk for more frequent power outages — like Broward County, Fla., Wilkinson County, Miss., and Hyde County, N.C. — also have the highest levels of social vulnerability, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Those counties have demographic and social-economic factors, like poverty and lack of transportation access, that can adversely affect communities that face natural disasters.
Joan Casey, an associate professor of public health at the University of Washington, said power outages amplify risk for people with underlying health conditions. Lack of power can quickly take people that are vulnerable, such as those who use electricity-dependent respirators, from relative safety to a dangerous situation.
The map has limitations. Researchers used the worst-case future climate scenario projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and considered a static infrastructure grid without factoring in potential changes that could harden the power system, like burying lines underground, strengthening poles, or installing community-scale solar.
But Karthik Balaguru, a Pacific Northwest National Laboratory researcher and co-creator of the map, pointed out that while it’s a worst-case model, some research suggests that we’re trekking closer to this model than any other by midcentury.
And hurricanes aren’t the only risk. Last week, a report from the Union of Concerned Scientists found that by 2050, a different climate risk, sea level rise, could expose more than 1,600 critical buildings and services to flooding twice a year, including more than 150 electrical substations.
“It’s a wake-up call that we need to be addressing our power system and making it much more reliable and much more resilient to climate related stresses,” said Kristina Dahl, a principal climate scientist for the Climate and Energy Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists and a co-author of the report.
Dr. Casey said we could now take important steps to invest in our grid, particularly with solar and battery storage that can provide community-scale power. But that won’t be enough.
“We have to stop burning fossil fuels,” said Dr. Casey. “That’s pretty much the answer.”
If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.
Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.
Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.
The energy sector is currently grappling with a unique challenge referred to as the "unwelcome bid."
The loss of the common good is unforgivable…
This edition highlights the pressing challenge in the energy sector known as the 'unwelcome bid.' While finance ministries might initially embrace the prospect of short-term profits, the potential for long-term costs that could weigh heavily on society warrants immediate concern, prompting swift action and consideration of future consequences.
Human life is transient, and the inevitable cognitive decline that accompanies old age can take a toll on our brains. Although certain substances have been formulated to decelerate this decline, we must also accept the natural progression of life, recognizing cognitive decline as an inherent part of it.
Today, Time magazine released an article titled 'Here's How Biden Can Bounce Back From the Disastrous Presidential Debate.' The piece posits that, despite the hurdles, there remains considerable hope for the president, who wields veto power, to stage a significant recovery from his extensive political tenure. Yet, this optimism may be belated in our swiftly evolving world.
"Anti-access/area denial": With rising tensions, the Mediterranean is witnessing an expansion of restricted zones. Nations are reinforcing their dominance over the Mediterranean. Socrates once compared the inhabitants of the Mediterranean to "frogs around a pond." Now, the formerly harmonious coexistence is under threat as countries stake their territorial claims, a move that may be overdue in a complex and fast-changing world.
Incidentally, Stanford University first introduced the principles of the Common Good on Monday, February 26, 2018. An apt illustration is the private discussion between Prime Minister Golda Meir and President Anwar Sadat.
On October 6, 1981, Anwar Sadat, the third President of Egypt, was assassinated during the annual victory parade in Cairo, commemorating Operation Badr, which signified the Egyptian army's successful crossing of the Suez Canal and the recapture of the Sinai Peninsula from Israel at the onset of the Yom Kippur War. Members of the
Artwork by Germán & Co.
Germán & Co workart image.“Human life is so fleeting, and old age can be harsh on our brains. Some substances have been developed to slow cognitive decline, but we still can't escape the inevitability of our vital cycle.
Today, Time magazine published an article titled "Here's How Biden Can Bounce Back From the Disastrous Presidential Debate," while the New York Times suggests that the president, who holds veto power, may be retiring from his long political career. In the face of the complex and rapidly changing world we live in, this decision may be coming a bit too late…
Source: Juliet - Le Monde Diplomatique'Anti-access/area denial': the Mediterranean sees an increase in restricted areas as tensions escalate. Nations assert their dominance in the Mediterranean. Socrates likened the inhabitants of the Mediterranean to 'frogs around a pond'. However, the once peaceful coexistence is now under threat as countries assert their territorial claims…
The price of wind generation is bouncing back. / Image: Germán & Co“Finance ministries may initially rejoice at the prospect of short-term gains; however, such actions could ultimately result in a surge of long-term costs that burden society…
Germany and the Netherlands have recently allocated 6.5 GW of new offshore wind projects through auctions. While this may seem optimistic at first glance, a notable issue has arisen: negative bidding. This development has placed considerable pressure on offshore wind developers. The following overview provides an insight into the current situation.
Negative Bidding and Contract for Difference (CfD) Auctions:
In the context of negative bidding, developers of wind farms submit bids indicating the amount they are willing to pay for the opportunity to construct a wind farm. A higher bid increases their likelihood of success.
Meanwhile, the focus is on Contract for Difference (CfD) auctions in various European regions, such as the EU. In this process, developers compete by bidding on the revenue they anticipate requiring, with the winning bid being the one with the lowest value. Upon winning, their revenue becomes linked to the agreed-upon strike price. Negative bidding substantially increases the expenses associated with establishing an offshore wind farm. Ultimately, developers transfer these costs to either the supply chain or consumers, intensifying the urgency surrounding the situation.
Germany has allocated 2.5 GW, while the Netherlands has allocated 4 GW. SSE Renewables from the UK and Dutch pension funds are investing €40 million in developing a 2 GW site, whereas Vattenfall and Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners are investing €800 million in another 2 GW site. These expenses, resulting directly from negative bidding, impact the wind energy supply chain and consumers and raise significant long-term societal concerns. This situation provides a compelling rationale for immediate action.
“In an ever-expanding and inflationary world, blogging presents considerable challenges. To sustain high-quality content in these times, we have invested in premium software, licenses, and copyrighted images, among other assets. Yet, we are not alone on this path. Over the past week, on "X," actions such as "liking" or "retweeting" are cost-free and completely confidential for you, courtesy of "Musk". Your support through these simple, yet free gestures is immensely appreciated in advance…
"Le Monde Diplomatique reports that in the month of July, our turbulent world remains ensnared in chaos... and the warning from numerous disreputable world leaders is that censorship has returned with a vengeance...
“French politics: it’s come to this; Macron’s foreign policy misadventures, the rise and rise of France’s far right; UK, the hard work ahead for Britain’s next prime minister; why sanctions on Russia didn’t bite; a second term, what will Ursula do next? Israel faces international law over Gaza; Armenia, Gaza and the ironies of history; the UN, Antonio Guterres prepares a Summit of the Future; Taliban struggle to meet Afghans’ needs; Italy, Giorgia Meloni’s cultural takeover; media, rise of the content farm; here come the citizen journalists …
In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy CentralDon't miss out on the chance to show us some love by tossing a coin our way and signing up for our newsletter. Your support is like a ray of sunshine on a cloudy day, fueling our passion to keep churning out awesome content just for you. We're beyond grateful to have you as part of our tribe!
Thank you for your kind contributions…
Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…
"Our commitment to providing value and expertise remains unwavering."
Andrés Gluski, President and CEO of AES Corporation.“We do not inherit the earth from our parents, we borrow it from our children.”
―Antoine De Saint-Exupery
“Renewable energy is growing rapidly in the US. The recent merger between Power and AES's clean energy business boosts our ability to assist clients in their energy transition. Our combined entity manages 2.5 GW of assets, with 2.6 GW backlog and 12 GW in projects. Join our team dedicated to solving complex energy challenges and transitioning to a carbon-free grid.
In our quest for cleaner energy, we offer various innovative solutions through our sPower partnership, aiding customers in transitioning to 100% renewable energy consumption. The projects like Pleinmont Solar I and II in Virginia underline our commitment to sustainability and impact on the environment. Our collaboration with Microsoft on a 300 MW solar energy initiative further supports clients in reaching their green objectives.
AES partnered with KIUC for a solar + storage solution, setting a new standard in renewable energy, supporting Hawaii's 2045 goal. Ready to help Microsoft and more with eco-friendly energy solutions, as mentioned by Andrés Gluski, AES's President and CEO.
Workart by Germán & Co. creates functional and creative artistic pieces to enhance any space.Negative Bidding Continues to Burden Offshore Wind Development
WindInsider.com by S.R.C. Roy, June 27, 2024.Germany and the Netherlands have recently awarded 6.5 GW of new offshore wind projects. Germany awarded 2.5 GW and the Netherlands 4 GW. To put this in context the EU has 19 GW of offshore wind in operation.
The auctions in both countries used negative bidding, where wind farm developers bid the amount of money they’re ready to pay for the right to build a wind farm – and the higher the price you bid the more likely you are to win. Most other countries in Europe use Contract for Difference (CfD) auctions where developers bid the amount of revenue they think they need, and the lowest bid wins.
If you win a negative bidding auction your revenue will be whatever is the wholesale market price of electricity. If you win a CfD auction your revenue will be whatever you bid in the auction, and if the market prices are higher than the agreed strike price, you pay the difference to the Government.
The negative bidding amounts are a straight add-on to the costs of developing an offshore wind farm. It’s extra money the developer has to pay which they don’t pay in a CfD auction. Project developers have to pass on these costs. Either to the wind energy supply chain which is still recovering from supply disruptions and cost increases. And/or to electricity consumers in the form of higher electricity prices.
Auction results…
The results of the latest German auction were:
TotalEnergies will pay €1.958bn to develop the N-11.2 site which has a capacity of around 1.5 GW. So they’re paying €1.3m per MW.
EnBW will pay €1.065bn to develop the roughly 1 GW N12.3 site. That’s €1.1m per MW.
The results of the latest Dutch auction were:
UK-based SSE Renewables and the Dutch state pension fund APG and ABP will pay €40mn to develop the 2GW IJmuiden Ver Alpha site. That’s €20,000 per MW.
Vattenfall and Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners will pay €800mn to develop the 2GW IJmuiden Ver Beta site. That’s €400,000 per MW.
Germany and the Netherlands both used negative bidding in their previous offshore wind auctions already. The Netherlands previously applied a cap on the bids which equated to €70,000 per MW – their cap is higher now. Germany doesn’t apply a cap. The winners of their previous auction, BP and Total Energies, are paying €12.6bn for the right to develop 7 GW – which equates to €1.8m per MW.
Negative bidding also means higher financing costs than you get with wind farms that are awarded in a CfD auction. The latter have fixed revenue, so banks feel much more comfortable offering more debt finance. But projects awarded in a negative bidding auction have variable revenue – the market price of electricity. So they need to rely more on (more expensive) equity finance – though they can mitigate this by signing PPAs with offtakers.
“Negative bidding increases the costs of offshore wind. Costs that have to be passed on to consumers and the wind energy supply chain. It may be a short-term gain for finance ministries. But it’s a long-term cost for society”, says WindEurope CEO Giles Dickson.
Non-price criteria…
The Dutch auction made extensive use of non-price criteria. For the Alpha site these were about biodiversity protection. For the Beta site it was system integration. The winning bidders made significant commitments to invest in these respective areas. Vattenfall and CIP have among other things committed to build a 1 GW electrolyser facility in Rotterdam which will run on renewable electricity from the Beta site. And the Alpha wind farm is designed as a “living laboratory” – more than 75% of the wind turbines in the wind farm will have artificial reefs for muscles and other maritime animals.
“The Dutch auction shows the European wind industry has a great offering on ecology and system integration. “We are building new wind farms and creating lasting value for Europe’s environment and energy system”, says Giles Dickson.
The German auction used price criteria only.
What’s the money used for?
In Germany 90% of the money raised from negative bidding will be used to reduce the grid levies. The other 10% are used to support maritime biodiversity and sustainable fishing practices. OK. But building these wind farms requires a strengthening of Germany’s offshore wind supply chain and an expansion of port capacity. The German Government should consider putting some of the money into that as well.
Cécile Marin's workConflict and tension in the Mediterranean
by Philippe Leymarie and Cécile Marin's work in Le Monde Diplomatique covers a range of topics, including geopolitical conflicts, economic systems, and social issues, presented through detailed maps and analyses.The Mediterranean is less than 0.8% of the world’s ocean but a quarter of all global trade passes through it: it’s a vital short cut from the Atlantic (via the Strait of Gibraltar) to the Indian and Pacific oceans (via the Suez Canal and Red Sea) and the only way to reach the Black Sea (via the Bosphorus). And it’s crossed by submarine pipelines and cables that supply Europe with two thirds of its imported energy. Bordered by some 20 countries, it is in the words of French historian Fernand Braudel an ancient crossroads where ‘civilisations [are] superimposed one on top of the other’ (1). However, it’s also a site of tensions between countries to its north and south, and between Israelis and Palestinians, Shia and Sunni Muslims, Arabs and Africans.
Jean-Michel Martinet of the Mediterranean Foundation for Strategic Studies (FMES) describes the Mediterranean as a source of crises amid ‘unprecedented and chaotic multipolarity’ and as ‘both a bridge and a buffer between two worlds: the countries on its northern shores – rich, postmodern and with ageing populations – and those on its southern shores – which face economic, demographic, social and political problems’ (2).
‘Once a shared space, the Mediterranean is now contested,’ French parliamentarians Jean-Jacques Ferrara and Philippe Michel-Kleisbauer wrote in a February 2022 report to the National Assembly (3), listing sources of tension: power strategies and rivalries (Russia, the West, China); anti-access/area denial (4) (Russia, Syria, Turkey); frozen conflicts that have flared up again (Cyprus, Western Sahara); and the continuing effects of Libya’s civil war in the Sahel (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger).
Since the report, there are new factors: the war in Ukraine, taking place partly by the Black Sea; a fifth war in Gaza; Armenia losing territory; worsening food and energy insecurity. As FMES director Xavier Pasco put it at last November’s Strategic Mediterranean Dialogue (RSMed) in Toulon, ‘Problems are multi-layered, [feedback] loops are growing tighter, and conflicts are accelerating to the point of hysteria.’
The Mediterranean is bristling with aircraft, radar systems, anti-missile batteries, ships, submarines and drones, all increasing the risk of human error…
Retired French vice-admiral Pascal Ausseur says the Ukraine war is also a sign that peaceful cohabitation in the Mediterranean is breaking down. Meanwhile, Pasco highlights growing resentment and even hatred of Europeans in Africa and the Middle East, where they are seen as ‘warmongers who apply double standards to refugees and are responsible for the coming famine’. He believes Europe is losing an information war and needs to ‘counter harmful Russian, Chinese and Turkish narratives’. That might be easier without the extensive use of force and violations of international law: by the US in former Yugoslavia, Iraq and Afghanistan; China in the China Sea; Russia in Georgia and Ukraine; France and the UK in Libya; Azerbaijan in the Caucasus; and Turkey in the eastern Mediterranean.
Continuing disputes, growing conflicts
There are other risks too: the standoff between Greece and Turkey (Greece’s actions on some small islands (5) and seizure of Turkish gas exploration and drilling vessels; the long-running dispute over the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus); recent incidents between Israel and Iran (air strikes, skirmishes on land and at sea); Israel’s offensive against Hizbullah in Lebanon; possible destabilisation of the Egyptian and Tunisian governments; tensions between Morocco and Algeria over Western Sahara; the resumption of Libya’s civil war (a source of regional jihadism); sabotage and attacks on submarine cables and pipelines; use of migration as a political tool, as in Turkey; disputes over maritime boundaries.
Challenges to maritime boundaries are of special concern to countries on the northern shores of the Mediterranean, whose navies now find their movements restricted. The 1994 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) sanctioned the establishment of exclusive economic zones (EEZs) extending 200 nautical miles from the coast – a concession to coastal countries of the global South in particular, which hoped to benefit from their resources (6). It also guaranteed right of passage through EEZs, and even the right of passage of naval vessels through territorial waters (12 nautical miles) provided it was for innocent purposes.
This balance is under threat. Some countries bordering the Mediterranean are attempting to maximise their maritime space and restrict the rights of other countries within it. They are gradually giving their EEZs a political as well as economic status by adopting military ‘anti-access/area denial’ measures, introducing permit and toll systems, building offshore wind farms and oil drilling platforms, and creating marine protected areas. Major seafaring nations that have not signed UNCLOS are now attached to the EEZ compromise and keen to uphold it as ‘the law of the sea becomes a means of asserting control’, according to a wide-ranging study on the ‘territorialisation of maritime space’ (7).
In the western Mediterranean, Algeria has unilaterally asserted an EEZ that takes no account of Italy’s claims to the waters around Sardinia or Spain’s around the Balearics, while in the eastern Mediterranean, historic tensions, ambitions of regional domination and economic interests make the issue of maritime boundaries all the more sensitive. Jean-François Pelliard, a consultant with the FMES, describes a ‘creeping territorialisation’. Under its Blue Homeland doctrine, proclaimed in 2019, Turkey (which has not signed UNCLOS) claims a maritime jurisdiction area of 462,000 sq km under the Lausanne treaty with Greece, which requires the Aegean Sea to be open to both countries.
Turkey secures favourable deals
Turkey is disregarding the claims of Greece and Cyprus, both UNCLOS signatories, and gas exploration activities under the protection of the Turkish navy have led to a number of incidents. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan frequently threatens to invade Greek islands close to Turkey where Greece has established a military presence and deployed defence systems during exercises such as Operation Lightning (January 2023).
Turkey, the only country to recognise Northern Cyprus, feels disadvantaged. In 2022, in exchange for providing military support to the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity in Libya, it secured a bilateral agreement on maritime boundaries that is more favourable to its own interests but still ignores Greek and Cypriot claims.
In the southeastern Mediterranean, where major natural gas deposits have been discovered in recent years, an unhoped-for agreement in 2022 between Israel and Lebanon (officially at war) has resulted in Israel maintaining control of the Karish maritime block, while most of the Qana block is assigned to Lebanon and its output will be exploited by a consortium including TotalEnergies, Eni and QatarEnergy; Turkey was excluded from this arrangement.
Immigration is another source of tension. Most irregular immigration to the European Union is via the Mediterranean route, with 266,940 migrants and refugees crossing in 2023 (8). Italy’s rightwing government has restricted NGOs’ ability to rescue migrants at sea by keeping their vessels in port on a variety of pretexts, making this already dangerous route (3,105 migrants drowned in 2023) even more deadly. The EU is trying to slow the influx in various ways. Under a 2016 deal Turkey agreed to keep three to four million (mostly Syrian) refugees on its territory in return for a payment of at least €6bn, but in 2020 it opened its border, allowing some 20,000 refugees to try to cross into Greece, in response to EU criticism of its offensive against the Kurds in northern Syria (9).
In the southern Mediterranean, the EU is supporting the Libyan coastguard and trying to relaunch a programme to combat human trafficking. However, in November 2023, the leaders of the military coup in Niger repealed a law criminalising migrant smuggling on the grounds that it was passed in 2015 ‘under the influence of foreign powers’ (10), and Tunisian president Kais Saied has said that his country ‘will not be Europe’s border guard’ (Reuters, 10 June 2023).
France has decided to paint out the pennant numbers and names of its largest warships. With ‘high-intensity’ engagements increasingly likely, it hopes this will make them harder to identify as they patrol the Mediterranean; the French navy’s position is that ‘uncertainty over a vessel’s identity can be a tactical advantage’ (11). Western military chiefs believe a tipping point has been reached: ‘Disorder is increasing and the world order is being circumvented: we must be ready for the situation to deteriorate very rapidly,’ says Admiral Nicolas Vaujour, head of the French navy, pointing to an unprecedented deployment of naval forces in the Mediterranean. Hence his decision to step up training, which now includes broader missions conducted close to crisis hotspots (as there is almost daily contact with the Russian navy, these must ‘take care to avoid misunderstandings and errors’); and exercises to strengthen interoperability among allied navies ‘to the point where they become interchangeable’, as the head of the Italian navy (also busy strengthening its forces) puts it.
‘Militarise to assert sovereignty’
Countries all around the Mediterranean are strengthening their navies. Between 2008 and 2030, Israel plans to increase its warship tonnage by 160%, Egypt by 170%, Algeria by 120%, Morocco by 52% and Turkey by 33%. A strong navy symbolises strength and influence, as well as protecting a country’s interests and enforcing its claims. ‘You militarise to assert sovereignty,’ says Nicolas Mazzucchi of the French Navy Centre for Strategic Studies (CESM). So North African countries are investing in first-rate vessels such as frigates. Algeria, as a strategic partner of Russia, has armed its submarines with Russian Kalibr long-range cruise missiles; it also sources equipment from China. Its defence allocation – 13.8% of GDP in 2023 – is proportionally the world’s largest, mainly to send a message to neighbouring Morocco.
The Mediterranean is bristling with aircraft, radar systems, anti-missile batteries, ships, submarines and drones, all increasing the risk of human error. There is a growing potential for miscalculations, misinterpretations of data or provocations that can rapidly escalate, though such incidents are usually settled ‘in a professional manner’. Anti-access/area denial measures keep foreign navies in check, as they are always within range of missiles fired from land or sea. Attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels on shipping in the Red Sea show that modern drones and missiles make it possible to ‘fight a naval battle without a navy’, as Ausseur puts it.
With Washington’s pivot to the Indo-Pacific in recent decades, the US Navy had reduced its strength in the Mediterranean and the role of NATO to some extent: French rear-admiral Jean-Emmanuel Roux de Luze, former naval attaché in Washington, recalls that in 2020 the Pentagon’s three top priorities were ‘China, China and China’. Nevertheless, the US still had a significant presence in the Mediterranean and the Gulf, with some 30 military bases, several fleets and considerable anti-missile capabilities. It continued to keep an eye on Israel, its protégé, on Iran, its principal adversary in the region, and on the shipping lanes used by giant container carriers heading to Europe. Since Russia invaded Ukraine, and especially since the start of the war in Gaza, the aircraft carriers have returned.
US support for Ukraine has increased the strategic importance of the eastern Mediterranean, dominated in recent years by Turkey, Russia and their allies. Washington has resumed its leadership of a reinvigorated NATO, which has a network of bases in the area: NATO’s naval headquarters is in Naples; US Navy frigates armed with Aegis missile defence systems are based in Rota, Spain; AWACS early warning and control aircraft operated by the US Air Force or directly by NATO fly from Sicily and Greece, which enables them to come close to Ukraine; NATO’s land forces are coordinated from Izmir, in Turkey. Though the Mediterranean is no longer a ‘NATO lake’, as it was during the cold war, it remains a useful location from which to monitor the major areas of friction between the Eurasian, Middle Eastern and African blocs.
Russia secures warm-water ports
The first country to fill the space left by the US in recent years was Russia, always in search of warm-water ports. Because of the war in Syria, it has been able to strengthen its presence in the eastern Mediterranean by securing the use of the Tartus (naval) and Khmeimim (air) bases, on the Syrian coast. The annexation of Crimea in 2014 seemed to have guaranteed its control of the naval base at Sebastopol on the Black Sea, and it had been turning the Azov Sea into an ‘internal lake’, but the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 changed everything. In two years, Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has lost 20 ships and its movements are hindered by the fact that the 1936 Montreux Convention bans military vessels involved in a regional conflict from passing through the Bosphorus or the Dardanelles.
Russia has had to bolster its forces in the eastern Mediterranean with ships from its Baltic and Pacific fleets, and is struggling with long supply chains and the difficulty of maintaining often ageing equipment. Its network of bases and installations is insufficient for its geopolitical ambitions. Nevertheless, from their bases in Syria, the Russian navy and air force are able to restrict the freedom of maritime and aerial navigation in the eastern Mediterranean that the Western powers once enjoyed to a few tens of kilometres.
In recent years, China too has become involved in the Mediterranean. Increasingly seen as a ‘strategic competitor’ all over the world, its main concern is trade access: more than two thirds of its exports to Europe transit the Suez Canal
As a major regional player, Turkey’s strength lies in its strategic power (it controls access to the Black Sea), energy (it’s a hub in the supply of natural gas to Europe), geopolitics (it’s the only Asian member of NATO, whose southern flank it protects) and demographics (it has the Mediterranean area’s second-largest population (after Egypt) and has taken in millions of refugees, notably from Syria. While happy to harness anti-Western sentiment for domestic political ends, and refusing to apply international sanctions against Russia, Turkey feels free to do as it pleases because the US, EU and Russia all need it.
Turkey’s position in NATO has been strengthened by its role as mediator in the July 2022 agreement between Russia and Ukraine on the export of Ukrainian cereals by sea. It manufactures three quarters of its own weaponry, exports Bayraktar TB2 drones to some 15 countries including Ukraine, and has been able to buy the latest Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile systems (despite US opposition). The US, which removed Turkey from a list of potential buyers for F-35 fighter jets in response, is said to be reconsidering its position as a way of thanking Erdoğan for dropping his opposition to Sweden joining NATO.
Though not a Mediterranean country, Iran also plays an important role in the area because of its influence over Shia militias in Iraq, Hizbullah in Lebanon and Syria, and Houthi rebels in Yemen; and because of its involvement in the region’s Kurdish problem. Israel and Iran’s airstrikes on each other since 7 October have increased regional tensions.
Enter China, ‘strategic competitor’
In recent years, China too has become involved in the Mediterranean. Increasingly seen as a ‘strategic competitor’ all over the world, its main concern is trade access; more than two thirds of its exports to Europe transit the Suez Canal. As part of its part of its Belt and Road Initiative, it already has the use of a dozen interconnected port facilities around the Mediterranean, thanks to capital stakes held by the state-owned China Cosco Shipping Corporation Limited (COSCO Shipping) in Egypt (Port Said, Damietta), France (Marseille-Fos), Turkey (Ambarlı), Greece (Piraeus), Italy (Vado Ligure) and Spain (Valencia), soon to be joined by Algeria (El Hamdania), where China overtook France as largest trading partner in 2012.
China is also making its mark in the sizeable market for submarine cables across the Mediterranean. It has invested heavily in the western Balkans (Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia), anticipating their accession to the EU. The Chinese navy has had a base in Djibouti at the mouth of the Red Sea (the only one outside China) for the last five years, and is thought to be capable of deploying an entire fleet in the Mediterranean if needed. ‘The question is not if, but when,’ Vice-Admiral Hervé Bléjean, director-general of the EU’s military staff said in November 2022.
Over the next few decades, knowledge and mapping of the Mediterranean will advance considerably. Artificial intelligence, satellite networks and drones are likely to make exploiting its seabed resources profitable (12); for some European countries, access to the Gulf and its hydrocarbons will no longer be essential; global warming will open up Russia’s Northern Sea Route; the tipping of the strategic balance towards Asia will further focus the US’s attention on the Pacific and China, now the world’s largest naval power; dwindling fish stocks will cause tensions to grow; autonomous surveillance and detection systems coupled with laser weapons and batteries of hypersonic missiles will ensure security over large expanses of sea – and deny access to them…
In the short term (five to ten years), the FMES warns of a possible resumption of hostilities between Algeria and Morocco, with an incident in Western Sahara triggering a cascade of responses: Algeria declaring a naval embargo on Morocco, the EU supporting Morocco, and France’s already difficult relations with Algeria degenerating still further, with Algeria threatening to turn off the supply of gas (via Morocco) to Europe, imposing an anti-access/area denial zone using its Russian S-400 batteries or even Iskander cruise missiles, and halting traffic through the Gibraltar strait.
The FMES’s long-term scenario (20 years+) could include wars over maritime resources (fish stocks and seabed minerals); a gradual but complete appropriation of ‘economic zones’ by non-European countries – ‘an example of the de-Westernisation of international law’ – with restrictions imposed on navigation in the southern and eastern Mediterranean and the Black and Red seas; or even the formation of an anti-Western alliance in the eastern Mediterranean that would prevent warships from reaching the Indian and Pacific oceans via the Suez Canal, forcing them to sail around the Cape of Good Hope and requiring a rethink of networks of overseas bases.
The article "TIME" is authored by Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and Steven Tian, published on June 29, 2024, at 1:14 PM EDT. Sonnenfeld holds the position of Lester Crown Professor of Management Practice at Yale, presides as the President of the Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute, and is noted for his works "The Hero’s Farewell" and "Firing Back." Steven Tian serves as the research director at the same institute.Coming off what was widely regarded as a disastrous debate performance, President Joe Biden, 81, faces a growing chorus of calls for him to step aside. Biden typically recoils from any criticism related to his age, but the urgent crisis he faces has become too pressing for him to ignore. However, all is not lost yet for Biden. The path forward is not easy, but there is still time for him to clear the air, with convincing explanations building off his track record of turning failures into demonstrated resilience.
Here are the three possible pathways for how Biden can move forward from his catastrophic debate performance and salvage his standing.
Biden could operate as though it’s business as usual
Unfortunately, this seems to have become the default option for many leading Democratic apparatchiks ranging from Gavin Newsom and John Fetterman to Kamala Harris. It was sad to see credible people taking an incredible position and backing Biden directly after that debate on Thursday. Newsom ludicrously claimed, “I am very proud of the President,” while Fetterman ripped Biden critics as “vultures” and advised them to “chill the f-ck out.”
Many Democrats likely fear incurring the wrath of Biden, who is notoriously prickly about his age. And sure, these Biden supporters can point out that the debate was only one night and that Biden’s three-and-a-half years of accomplishments should matter more—but the American people cannot and will not simply write off such a historically bad debate performance.
The Trumpian denial of reality among these “business as usual” types leans towards political malpractice. In defaulting to what they view as the safest answers, these Dems are actually doing a massive disservice to their own cause and risk destroying their own credibility.
Biden could head out on the road and prove his fitness to govern in front of voters across America
Instead of avoiding the issue, or hiding behind layers of overly protective staff in the White House, Biden can tackle it head-on with a proactive, forceful demonstration of his own fitness to govern. While speculation swirls about whether Biden should step down, there is no better way for Biden to silence the critics than to show beyond a shadow of doubt that he remains on top of his game and that the debate catastrophe was a one-time aberration, not the norm. But time is of the essence here.
Painful as it may be, Biden should own up to a poor debate and candidly admit why that was. Putting aside his age, what caused this? Was he having a bad reaction to cold medication? Did an overanxious debate prep team overcoach him? Was he overwhelmed with obscure facts and figures instead of being encouraged to be himself?
Already, Biden appears to be confronting matters head-on. At a rally in North Carolina on Friday, Biden addressed his poor debate performance as well as the issue of his age with more self-awareness than ever before.
“I know I’m not a young man, to state the obvious… I know. Folks, I know I don’t walk as easy as I used to. I don’t speak as smoothly as I used to. I don’t debate as well as I used to. But I know what I do know,” the President said to a cheering crowd. “I know how to tell the truth. I know right from wrong. I know how to do this job. I know how to get things done. I know that when you get knocked down, you get back up.”
But to restore his credibility in the eyes of the public, Biden has to do not just staged pep rallies with friendly reverential audiences, but engage urgently in genuine unscripted, responsive exchanges with independent media and outside key opinion leaders.
Biden sat down with TIME for a cover story published in early June, but it’s rare to get such direct access to this particular President. It’s long been a topic of discussion how Biden gives less media interviews than his predecessors. This isolation has never served Biden well; but now, it is especially vital that he reach out to key donors, political allies, and other influencers across civil society to re-establish his standing and to re-engage journalists.
Biden has every opportunity now to fortify his credibility in the eyes of the American public, and there should be no premature rush to judgment—a point made by varied voices ranging from former Obama campaign manager David Plouffe to lifelong Republican Mark Cuban. Already, key Democratic Party heavyweights such as former Presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton have come out with statements of support meant to help tide Biden over for the time being—but the ultimate judge will be the American people. And there are signs the people will be far less judgmental than the media commentator class, with Biden surprisingly up 1% after the debate.
Biden could make the change many are calling for
The Biden many Americans saw during the debate is not the Biden I [Sonnenfeld] have known for five decades. In fact, I spoke briefly with the President last month at a Greenwich fundraiser, and I had no inkling that anything was off in the slightest. Having known Biden for so long, and having admired his great presidency, it pains me to say this but after the debate disaster, the onus is on Biden now to prove his fitness to govern in the eyes of the public. If he fails at this, he should step aside before the choice is made for him by the American people at the ballot box in November, as many prominent voices ranging from the New York Times Editorial Board to AMC Theatres CEO Adam Aron have called for.
Despite the anxious clamoring of top donors, operatives and others, the path to replacing Biden on the ballot is fraught with difficulties. First, and most obviously, there is no evidence Biden is eager to step aside, no matter what anyone else says about him.
For Biden to even remotely consider stepping down voluntarily, it could very well fall to such senior party leaders as the Clintons, Obama, Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Rep. Jim Clyburn, and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries to try to convince him. And even then, it seems highly unlikely.
Even if Biden did voluntarily step aside, and release his pledged delegates for an open convention; the nomination process in such a rushed contest may prove to be so divisive that the party could be worse off. It’s also worth pointing out there is no clear frontrunner, with Vice President Kamala Harris trailing Trump in polls far worse than Biden.
While rising stars such as Jeffries or Governor of Michigan Gretchen Whitmer look like appealing choices, and could be a unifying dream team, they come with their own drawbacks too, and it would be unprecedented for a novice presidential candidate to build out a fully-fledged campaign infrastructure this late in the game. But these obstacles may prove to be the lesser-of-evils choice if Biden cannot prove once and for all that he is still fit to be President.
Biden should be given every opportunity now to rebound from the debate and show he is fit to govern. Should he fail to do so, only then will it be time for him to step aside.
On 6 October 1981, Anwar Sadat, the 3rd President of Egypt, was assassinated during the annual victory parade held in Cairo to celebrate Operation Badr, during which the Egyptian Army had crossed the Suez Canal and taken back the Sinai Peninsula from Israel at the beginning of the Yom Kippur War.[1] The assassination was undertaken by members of the Egyptian Islamic Jihad. Although the motive has been debated, Sadat's assassination likely stemmed from Arab nationalists who opposed Sadat's peace initiative with Israel and the United States relating to the Camp David Accords.The Common Good…
Initially published by Stanford University on Monday, February 26, 2018.In ordinary political discourse, the “common good” refers to those facilities—whether material, cultural or institutional—that the members of a community provide to all members in order to fulfill a relational obligation they all have to care for certain interests that they have in common. Some canonical examples of the common good in a modern liberal democracy include: the road system; public parks; police protection and public safety; courts and the judicial system; public schools; museums and cultural institutions; public transportation; civil liberties, such as the freedom of speech and the freedom of association; the system of property; clean air and clean water; and national defense. The term itself may refer either to the interests that members have in common or to the facilities that serve common interests. For example, people may say, “the new public library will serve the common good” or “the public library is part of the common good”.
As a philosophical concept, the common good is best understood as part of an encompassing model for practical reasoning among the members of a political community. The model takes for granted that citizens stand in a “political” or “civic” relationship with one another and that this relationship requires them to create and maintain certain facilities on the grounds that these facilities serve certain common interests. The relevant facilities and interests together constitute the common good and serve as a shared standpoint for political deliberation.[1] When citizens face various questions about legislation, public policy or social responsibility, they resolve these questions by appeal to a conception of the relevant facilities and the relevant interests. That is, they argue about what facilities have a special claim on their attention, how they should expand, contract or maintain existing facilities, and what facilities they should design and build in the future.
The common good is an important concept in political philosophy because it plays a central role in philosophical reflection about the public and private dimensions of social life. Let’s say that “public life” in a political community consists of a shared effort among members to maintain certain facilities for the sake of common interests. “Private life” consists of each member’s pursuit of a distinct set of personal projects. As members of a political community, we are each involved in our community’s public life and in our own private lives, and this raises an array of questions about the nature and scope of each of these enterprises. For example, when are we supposed to make decisions based on the common good? Most of us would agree that we are required to do so when we act as legislators or civil servants. But what about as journalists, corporate executives or consumers? More fundamentally, why should we care about the common good? What would be wrong with a community whose members withdraw from public life and focus exclusively on their own private lives? These are some of the questions that motivate philosophical discussions of the common good.
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